Archives of “markit” tag

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UK April construction PMI 8.2 vs 21.7 expected

  
Analysis, Economy
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Latest data released by Markit – 6 May 2020

  • Prior 39.3
Construction activity in the UK crashes to an all-time low last month as clients freeze spending plans amid the fallout from the virus outbreak and business shutdowns. The real worry here is that this could lead to long-term disruptions and cause construction activity to be more subdued for a longer period than the drop seen in April. Markit notes that:

“The rapid plunge in UK construction output during April stands out even in a month of record low PMI data for the manufacturing and service sectors. Widespread site closures and business shutdowns across the supply chain meant that vast swathes of the construction sector halted all activity in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Around 86% of survey respondents reported a fall in business activity since March, while only 3% signalled an expansion. House building and commercial work were unsurprisingly the hardest hit, but civil engineering activity also fell at by far the fastest pace since the survey began in April 1997.

“A drop in construction activity of historic proportions in April looks set to be followed by a gradual reopening of sites in the coming weeks, subject to strict reviews of safety measures.

“However, the prospect of severe disruption across the supply chain will continue over the longer-term and widespread use of the government job retention scheme has been needed to cushion the impact on employment. Looking ahead, construction companies widely commented on worries about cash flow, rising operating costs and severely reduced productivity, as well as a slump in demand for new construction projects.”

Eurozone April final services PMI 12.0 vs 11.7 prelim

  
Analysis, Economy
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Latest data released by Markit – 6 May 2020

  • Composite PMI 13.6 vs 13.5 prelim
The preliminary release can be found here. A tad better than initial estimates but again, it doesn’t take away the fact that the euro area economy saw a record contraction in business activity during the month of April. A summary to wrap your head around:
Markit notes that:

“The extent of the euro area economic downturn was laid bare by record downturns in every country surveyed in April, with output falling at unprecedented rates across the region’s manufacturing and services sectors.

“With a large part of the region’s economy shut down while COVID-19 infections spiked higher, the economic data for April were inevitably going to be bad, but the scale of the decline is still shocking. The survey data are indicative of GDP falling at a quarterly rate of around 7.5%, far surpassing the worst decline seen in the global financial crisis. Jobs are also being lost at a rate never previously seen.

“Hopefully, with coronavirus curves flattening and governments making moves to ease lockdown restrictions, many sectors should start to see output and demand pick up. The process will be only very gradual, however, as governments juggle between reviving economies and preventing a second wave of infections. Most companies will inevitably need to work at levels well below full capacity and sectors such as retail, travel, tourism and recreation – already the hardest hit – will continue to be badly affected by social distancing.

“While the rate of decline may ease in coming months, we do not expect to see any material signs of recovery until the second half of the year, and it is likely to be several years before the output lost due to the 

Eurozone December final manufacturing PMI 46.3 vs 45.9 prelim

  
  Analysis
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Latest data released by Markit – 2 January 2020

The preliminary release can be found here. The mildly higher revision was predicated by the French and German readings earlier but it is still weaker than the November print.

All this does is just reaffirm more sluggish factory conditions in the euro area economy towards the end of last year and that any signs of a recovery still needs more consistency despite a better outlook to US-China trade and Brexit developments.

Markit notes that:

“Eurozone manufacturers reported a dire end to 2019, with output falling at a rate not exceeded since 2012. The survey is indicative of production falling by 1.5% in the fourth quarter, acting as a severe drag on the wider economy.

Although firms grew somewhat more optimistic about the year ahead, a return to growth remains a long way off given that new order inflows continued to fall at one of the fastest rates seen over the past seven years. Firms sought to reduce inventory levels and cut headcounts as a result, focusing on slashing capacity and lowering costs. Such cost cutting was again also evident in further steep falls in demand for machinery, equipment and production-line inputs.”

Eurozone November flash manufacturing PMI 46.6 vs 46.4 expected

  
Analysis, Economy
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Latest data released by Markit – 22 November 2019

  • Prior 45.9
  • Services PMI 51.5 vs 52.4 expected
  • Prior 52.2
  • Composite PMI 50.3 vs 50.9 expected
  • Prior 50.6
The report here sort of summarises the overall sentiment from the French and German releases earlier. While there are green shoots starting to be observed in the manufacturing sector, domestic demand is beginning to weaken further as pointed out by the services print.
And when you weigh that as a whole, the composite reading still points to continued weakness in the euro area. As such, even if there are signs of hope, it is too soon to say that the European economy is on its way to a sustained recovery.

Eurozone June final manufacturing PMI 47.6 vs 47.8 prelim

  
Analysis, Economy
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Latest data released by Markit – 1 July 2019

Slight downtick to the final release sees the overall euro area reading fall a little in June compared to the 47.7 print in May. That said, this is more or less within initial estimates so it’s not really giving much new information about the sluggish manufacturing sector in the region seen in Q2 2019.

Eurozone Markit Feb mftg PMI final 58.6 vs 58.5 exp

  
Analysis, Education
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Eurozone Markit Feb mftg PMI final data now out 1 Mar

  • 58.5 flash
  • mftg output 59.6 vs 59.5 flash
Do you yearn for those heady days of yore when a 0.1% change in final PMI’s gave us a 20-30 pip move ?!
EURUSD still drifting lower and now 1.2188. Decent demand between 1.2150-80 should help contain further falls quite apart from the 1.2150 and 1.2200 option interest.
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