Archives of “Li (surname 李)” tag

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China health official says China has officially launched emergency use of COVID19 vaccines

  
  Analysis
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Coronavirus weekend news – Chinese media, Global Times, reports via Twitter that an official at the country’s National Health Commission:

  • says China has officially launched emergency use of a vaccine
  • the vaccine has been in clinical trial since July 22
GT also report on a more than 20,000 person phase III clinical trial in the UAE of Sinopharm’s COVID19 vaccine
  • has shown a high level of safety
  • efficacy is currently under observation
Coronavirus weekend news - Chinese media, Global Times, reports via Twitter that an official at the country's National Health Commission:
Both of the GT items are tweets only, not accompanied by further articles for more information.
There is one more that is accompanied by an article – saying that China’s first recombinant protein COVID-19 vaccine made from insect cells has been approved for clinical trials by the National Medical Products Administration.
  • vaccine is being developed by the State Key Laboratory of Biological Therapy of Sichuan University affiliated West China Hospital
  • vaccine uses insect cells to multiply in the culture medium and introduces the gene of COVID-19 into insect cells, which means the cell can be used as a factory to produce high-quality recombinant vaccine proteins and purify them for refinement.
  • vaccine was tested on monkeys and other animals, and was found to have a good protective effect against COVID-19 infection, with no obvious side effects
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Given the history of how markets view vaccine news (generally positively) this threefer from the GT might be a boost for sentiment on Monday. There is still plenty of time left over the weekend for less than favourable stories to develop, stay tuned.

S&P and NASDAQ index close at record highs

  
Analysis, US Market
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Dow industrial average leads the way

the S&P and NASDAQ index both closed at record levels, but for the day the Dow industrial average was the biggest percentage gainer.

The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index up 11.73 points or 0.35% at 3397.24.
  • The NASDAQ index rose 46.848 points or 0.42% at 11311.80
  • Dow industrial average rose 190.84 points or 0.69% at 27930.53

For the week, the NASDAQ led the way. The Dow industrial average ended the week unchanged.

  • S&P index rose 0.72%
  • NASDAQ index rose 2.65%
  • Dow industrial average was unchanged

For the year to date, the Dow industrial average still remains down. The NASDAQ index continues its stellar performance.

  • S&P index +5.15%
  • NASDAQ index +26.07%
  • Dow industrial average -2.13%
Some of the big gainers today included:
  • Apple, +5.14%
  • dear and Company, +4.39%
  • Nvidia, +4.43%
  • Tesla, +2.39%
  • Qualcomm, +2.15%
  • Corning, +1.88%
  • Nike, +1.63%
  • Marriott, +1.35%
  • AMD, +1.27%
  • Chipotle, +1.13%
  • Costco, +1.12%
  • J&J, +0.9%
  • Home Depot, +0.9%
Big losers today included:
  • Slack, -2.97%
  • United Airlines, -2.97%
  • Papa John’s, -2.16%
  • Uber, -1.85%
  • Box, -1.83%
  • Deutsche Bank, -1.71%
  • Beyond Meat, -1.5%
  • Delta, -1.27%
  • Boeing -1.25%
  • Raytheon technologies, -1.21%
  • Whirlpool, -1.17%
  • Netflix, -1.1%

Selling Out at a Good Price and Re-Entering at a Worse Price

  
Analysis, Education
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  • Reasons
    • You think that the price is going down, so you sell at $X. Price drops below $X, you feel good that you sold out earlier, then you shift your attention to other things. Now and then you check the price again, and saw that it kept going lower, so you still feel good. Then after a while you start to notice that the price is inching back to $X, so you start to think ‘hmm.. look’s like it’s going back up, maybe I shouldn’t have sold. Let’s monitor this for a while, see what happens’. Your ‘Fear of Missing Out’ and your ‘Fear of Future Regret’ is starting to grow.
    • All the while, you had no concrete action plan on how you would handle this, you have not decided at what price or point you would go back in, or would you cut this position out entirely. Without a trading plan decided beforehand, you are bound to react to your emotions.
    • Soon, the price moves above $X, and keeps moving up. Finally, you can’t take it anymore, you re-enter your position at a price higher than $X. That helped to ‘quieten’ your ‘Fear of Missing Out’.
    • Then as it usually happens, price goes back down again, drops below $X and goes down further. Either your fear of taking a loss kicks in and you stick with a losing position, or you sell out at a loss.
  • Solutions
    • You have to decide beforehand, even before you exit the position, how you would handle the position.  To do that,  you need to be clear on the reason why you are selling in the first place.
    • If you are selling because you think that the uptrend has changed to a downtrend, or the uptrend is broken, you would need to have specific criteria that you look for to know whether the uptrend has resumed. If the criteria has not been met, even if the price goes above $X, you will not re-enter your position.
    • If you are selling because you think the uptrend is still intact but there will be a short momentum reversal, you need to get out and get back in very quickly, usually just catching 1-2 ticks more. This type of play where you react to momentum is highly discouraged. The risk-reward is bad, the skill level, reaction speed, concentration required are extremely high, and it makes you susceptible to falling into the trap of ignoring the bigger market structure.
    • You have to realize that you are playing into the hands of the usual fighting that goes between bulls and bears when you keep reacting to the swings, which will naturally make you buy high and sell low.
    • In conclusion, you need to be very clear of reason that you are selling. In that way, you would be clear of when, if ever, you would re-enter the position.

NASDAQ closes at a new record.

  
Analysis, US Market
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Major indices close higher

The NASDAQ index close at a another record high. The previous high close came in at 11,210.84. The index close today at 11,264.95. The S&P index traded above its all-time high closing price but could not sustain the gains into the close.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index up 10.69 points or 0.32% at 3385.54. The high price reached 3390.80. The low price extended to 3354.69. The all-time high close was at 3389.78. The index closed just below that level. The all-time intraday high from Wednesday’s trade reach 3399.54.
  • The NASDAQ index closed up 118.49 points or 1.06% at 11264.95. The close was above the previous high close at 11,210.84. Intraday the pair also traded to a new all time high of 11,283.61.
  • the Dow industrial average lagged the other indices but still closed higher by 46.85 points or 0.17% at 27739.73. It’s high price extended to 27781.46 while the low reached 27526.25.

Late day comments from the CDC that the southern states may have reached a peak and the death rate should start to go down next week helped to push the stocks up near the close.

Apple closed with a market capitalization above $2 trillion for the 1st time. It closed at $473.10 up $10.27 or 2.22%. Microsoft rose by 2.33%. Facebook rose by 2.45% cotton Netflix rose by 2.75%, and Alphabet rose by 2.05%.
In the European markets, the major indices all closed over 1% lower on the day with the UK FTSE leading the way with a decline of -1.61%.

FT report: China cautious on hitting back at US companies after Huawei sanctions

  
  Analysis
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The Financial Times writes that despite mounting political pressure to unveil commensurate restrictions on US businesses in China, Beijing has historically been reluctant to retaliate. 

Analysts think officials will continue to hold back, as they are reluctant to upset the economic benefits and innovation US companies bring to China.
The US administrations targeting of China’s biggest technology groups incldueds moves against:
  • ByteDance
  • Tencent
  • as well as Huawei
Link to FT is here (may be gated).  The FT cite analysts (named in the piece) for the opinions.
If they are right perhaps US-China relations will not chill much further after all.
The Financial Times writes that despite mounting political pressure to unveil commensurate restrictions on US businesses in China, Beijing has historically been reluctant to retaliate. 

S&P closes just below all time high closing level.

  
Analysis, US Market
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Nasdaq rises 2.13% on the day

The major indices are all closing higher led by the Nasdaq index.
  • The Dow and S&P are up 9 of the last 10 days
  • The Nasdaq broke the 3 day losing streak.
  • The S&P rose to above the all time highest close at 3386.15 intraday,  but has closed just below that level.
  • The Dow is 2% from recouping all the 2020 losses.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index closed at 3380.35, that is up 46.66 points or 1.4%. The high reached 3387.89. The low reached 3355. 46.
  • The Nasdaq index closed up 229.41 or 2.13% at 11012.22. The high reached 11036.71. The low reached 10877.16
  • The Dow closed  up 289.93 points or 1.05% at 27976.84. The high reached  28043.89. The low extended to 27843.32.

China reaffirms that US’ TikTok ban has nothing to do with national security

  
  Analysis
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Comments by the Chinese foreign ministry

US China
  • Beijing has been ‘consistent’ on trade deal
  • Declines to comment on further trade specifics
  • Says position on US sanctions is clear and consistent
  • Says US sanctions are irrational, groundless
  • Reiterates opposition towards ties between US and Taiwan
There’s nothing really new here as this has been China’s stance all along but it does reaffirm expectations that both sides have a lot more than just the Phase One trade deal to discuss if they were to meet later this week.

This is what gold fever looks like

  
  Analysis
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Hungry for gold news?

Hungry for gold news?  
Last week I made one comment that submitted to one media outlet on gold prices. The take up was telling.
The below was the amount of publications it occurred in and the approximate circulation.
Remember the below came from just one comment.
This is what a mania market looks like.
Gold is buy on the dips and buy on the breakouts. If you could only trade one market this year – this would be it. 

Fauci says its likely there will be tens of million of vaccine doses by the end of this year

  
  Analysis
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US infectious diseases expert Fauci speaking in an interview with Reuters

Expects a safe and effective vaccine will have received approval by the end of 2020
  • says there is a middle ground where the country can prudently open amid the coronavirus
  • says some sections of the country have done well but other parts are on fire
  • says he does expect a safe and effective vaccine to receive approval by year end
  • says manufacturers say a billion doses of vaccine will be available by the end of 2021
  • we will likely have tens of millions of doses of vaccine by the end of this year
  • he would be satisfied by a trial that included thousands of people and showed no signs of unexpected severe adverse events
  • he has not seen any indication of pressure from white house on vaccine
  •  says regulatory authorities have promised that safety and efficacy of vaccine will be paramount concern

US infectious diseases expert Fauci speaking in an interview with Reuters 

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