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9 Rules by Nassim Taleb’s Risk Management

  
  Education
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Rule No. 1- Do not venture in markets and products you do not understand. You will be a sitting duck.

Rule No. 2- The large hit you will take next will not resemble the one you took last. Do not listen to the consensus as to where the risks are (that is, risks shown by VAR). What will hurt you is what you expect the least.

Rule No. 3- Believe half of what you read, none of what you hear. Never study a theory before doing your own observation and thinking. Read every piece of theoretical research you can-but stay a trader. An unguarded study of lower quantitative methods will rob you of your insight.

Rule No. 4- Beware of the nonmarket-making traders who make a steady income-they tend to blow up. Traders with frequent losses might hurt you, but they are not likely to blow you up. Long volatility traders lose money most days of the week.

Rule No. 5- The markets will follow the path to hurt the highest number of hedgers. The best hedges are those you alone put on. (more…)

The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes by Mark Douglas

  
  Education
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Intro

  • Reaching the level of success they desire as traders will require them to make at least some, if not many, changes in the way they perceive market action.
  • The markets have absolutely no power or control over you, no expectation of your behavior, and no regard for your welfare.
  • There are only a few traders who have come to the realization that they alone are completely responsible for the outcome of their actions.  Even fewer are those who have accept the psychological implications of that realization and know what to do about it.
  • The nature of the markets made it easy no to have to confront anything that otherwise might be perceived as a problem because the next trade always had the possibility of making everything else in one’s life seem irrelevant.
  • I CREATED MY LOSSES INSTEAD OF AVOIDING THEM SIMPLY BECAUSE I WAS TRYING TO AVOID THEM.
  • Unsuccessful Trading Behaviors
    1. Refusing to define a loss.
    2. Not liquidating a losing trade, even after you have acknowledged the trade’s potential is greatly diminished.
    3. Getting locked into a specific opinion or belief about market direction.  I.E. “I’m right, the market is wrong.”
    4. Focusing on price and the money
    5. Revenge-trading to get back at the market from what it took from you.
    6. Not reversing your position even when you clearly sense a change in market direction
    7. Not following the rules of the trading system.
    8. Planning for a move or feeling one building, then not trading it.
    9. Not acting on your instincts or intuition
    10. Establishing a consistent patter of trading success over a period of time, and then giving your winning back to the market in one or two trades.

(more…)

Life's Unanswered Questions

  
  Education
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Help me out here…

Why do you check your stocks twice a day but your cholesterol twice a decade? The former is killing your emotions and the latter is killing you.

Why do companies still provide paper receipts? My grandma discovered email 15 years ago.

Why do companies limit the number of sick days employees can take? If you can’t trust me when I say I have bronchitis, you shouldn’t trust me to be your employee.

Why is 2008’s 35% market crash so memorable, but 2013’s 33% rally so forgettable?Answer this and you’ll be a better investor.

Why is it so much easier to fool yourself than other people? It is amazing to watch smart investors convince themselves of something that clearly isn’t true. (more…)

Skill Vs Luck

  
  Education
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Michael Mauboussin, head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse, has written extensively on the role of skill vs. luck in many endeavors … mostly for business, sports and investing.

He is well worth paying attention to.

This, in particular:

There is actually a very interesting test to determine if there is any skill in an activity, and that is to ask if you can lose on purpose. If you can lose on purpose, then there is some sort of skill. Investing is very interesting because it is difficult to build a portfolio that does a lot better than the benchmark. But it is also actually very hard, given the parameters, to build a portfolio that does a lot worse than the benchmark. What that tells you is that investing is pretty far over to the luck side of the continuum. That is the first important thing.

From that one paragraph, and the logical conclusions that follow (there is a lot more to it than that one paragraph) … a few important points:

  • There is a continuum of luck to skill
  • Investing (I’d substitute ‘trading’ in there) has elements of both … “pretty far over to the luck side of the continuum“
  • Given it’s a spectrum, there is skill involved
  • Skill can be improved

(more…)

Trend Following Goes for the Middle Meat

  
  Education
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Consider an illustration that can make you rich:
trend following chart

Trend following does not pick bottoms or tops. You always get into a trend late, and get out late. You cannot predict a trend. That chart might not seem like a great strategy at first glance, but it is the foundation of one of the most profitable insights in the history of market speculation: capture the middle meat and you can make a fortune.

The Secret to Trading Success

  
  Education
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Secret-ASRThe most important thing you must learn in every market cycle  is where the money is flowing. It is flowing into the companies where the earnings are growing. As long as mutual funds have capital in flows instead of net out flows then they must put new money to work investing in stocks. If you want to make your job as a trader much easier then find where the flow is going. Mutual fund managers can not go to an all cash position they can only move money around. A bear market sinks most stocks because managers have to sell everything to raise money to redeem shares. In an uptrend they have to buy stocks with the incoming money flows. Where does this money go? It goes into the sectors and stocks that are in favor due to increased earnings in a sector and individual stocks that are dominating their sector and changing the world in the process. You want the leaders not the has been. You want the best the market has to offer. Where are consumers dollars flowing into? That is where the money is going. What companies have the best growth prospects? The stock can only grow in price if the underlying company does. Mutual fund managers are the biggest customers in the market when they start buying a stock that increases huge demand and price support.

Your job is to follow the big money, shorting in bear markets, going long in bull markets. Following the trend of what is in favor. Do not fight the action, flow with it.

Quit having opinions and start being a detective looking for the smart money, the fast money, the big money and where it is going now.

Technical Analyst & Fundamental Analyst -Chat

  
  Education
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“A technical analyst and a fundamental analyst are chatting about the markets in the kitchen. Accidentally one of them knocks a kitchen knife off the table landing right in the fundamental analyst’s foot! The fundamental analyst yells at the technician, asking him why he didn’t catch the knife? “You know technicians don’t catch falling knives!,” the technician responded. He in turn asks the fundamental analyst why he didn’t move his foot out of the way? The fundamental analyst responds, “ I didn’t think it could go that low.” 

16 Rules for Traders

  
  Education
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1. Never, Ever, Ever, Under Any Circumstance, Add to a Losing Position… not ever, not never! Adding to losing positions is trading’s carcinogen; it is trading’s driving while intoxicated. It will lead to ruin. Count on it!

2. Trade Like a Wizened Mercenary Soldier: We must fight on the winning side, not on the side we may believe to be correct economically.

3. Mental Capital Trumps Real Capital: Capital comes in two types, mental and real, and the former is far more valuable than the latter. Holding losing positions costs measurable real capital, but it costs immeasurable mental capital.

4. This is Not a Business of Buying Low and Selling High: It is, however, a business of buying high and selling higher. Strength tends to beget strength, and weakness, weakness.

5. In Bull Markets One Can Only Be Long or Neutral, and in bear markets, one can only be short or neutral. This may seem self-evident; few understand it, however, and fewer still embrace it. 

6. “Markets Can Remain lllogical Far Longer Than You or I Can Remain Solvent.” These are Keynes’ words, and illogic does often reign, despite what the academics would have us believe.

7. Buy Markets That Show the Greatest Strength; Sell Markets That Show the Greatest Weakness: Metaphorically, when bearish we need to throw rocks into the wettest paper sacks, for they break the most easily. When bullish we need to sail the strongest winds, for they carry the farthest.

8. Think Like a Fundamentalist; Trade Like a Simple Technician: The fundamentals may drive a market and we need to understand them, but if the chart is not bullish, why be bullish? Be bullish when the technicals and fundamentals, as you understand them, run in tandem.

9. Trading Runs in Cycles, Some Good, Most Bad: Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and ever smaller when trading poorly. In “good times,” even errors turn to profits; in “bad times,” the most well-researched trade will go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it and move on.

10. Keep Your Technical Systems Simple: Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance. The great traders we’ve known have the simplest methods of trading. There is a correlation here! (more…)

8 ways to measure your trading performance

  
  Education
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1. Number of winning vs losing trades
The success rate of your trades is an important number to have in order to monitor improvements in other areas of trading.
There’s a general view that you’ll want to win more often than you lose – but there are many successful traders out there who’ll take lots of small losses and fewer bigger winners. What matters is how this figure balances with your average win/loss size (see number 3 below).
2. Largest number of consecutive winners and losers
Take a look at when these happened – what were the market conditions at the time?
This will give you a picture of what markets you’re good at trading, and which ones you should be wary of. How can you protect yourself against the poor market conditions, and maximize the benefits of the good conditions?
3. Average win size vs average loss size
I often bang on about how the 2:1 risk-reward principle should be viewed as an ‘aim’ rather than a ‘rule’.
Achieving double the reward on winners than the loss on losers is a tough call for any trading strategy to maintain – it’s certainly a lot harder than many trading gurus would have you believe.
However, if your losses are too big and keep wiping out all your gains –you’ve got a problem. This figure needs to be carefully balanced with your success rate (number 1, above) to achieve profitability.
4. Largest and longest draw-down periods (more…)

It’s never too late to innovate

  
  Education
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Buffett’s having fun with his new partnership-purchase of Heinz. The structure of the deal: Both Berkshire and a Brazilian private equity firm bought the company’s common stock, and then Berkshire, as the financing partner, bought a preferred stock paying 9% interest with the ability to exchange it for even more common shares later. Early results of the takeover have been encouraging and Buffett seems tickled by the creativity of the transaction. “With the Heinz purchase, moreover, we created a partnership template that may be used by Berkshire in future acquisitions of size.” Including Heinz, Berkshire now owns 8 1/2 companies that would be included in the Fortune 500 if they were standalone entities, we are told. One could envision Berkshire doing a Heinz-like transaction once a year!

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