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Chile sees slowing Chinese demand for copper, projects price falling in 2022

  
  Analysis
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Commission Chilena del Cobre (Cochilco) acts as an advisor to the Chilean government through the Ministry of mining, focused on copper and its by-products.

(That’s an ‘in a nutshell’ description.)
Cochilco average copper price forecast
  • for 2021 US$4.20/lb (was US$4.30/lb previously, this projection made 3 months ago)
  • for 2022 unchanged at US$3.95/lb
Cites:
slower growth in the Chinese economy
and therefore copper import falls
China’s policy to sell copper reserves
US Federal reserve to taper stimulus
On the other hand:
  • expectations of economic recovery
  • low inventories
  • limited supply
  • labour disputes
Cochilco predicts a supply deficit for 2021 and a surplus for 2022
  • global copper demand will rise this year and next

North Korea appears to have resumed operation of its plutonium-producing reactor

  
Analysis, Politics
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Producing plutonium will allow the country to expand its arsenal of nuclear weapons.

Wall Street Journal report on findings of the UN Atomic Agency:
  • “Since early July, there have been indications, including the discharge of cooling water, consistent with the operation of the reactor,” said the report by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
  • and there are indications that North Korea is also using a nearby laboratory to separate plutonium from spent fuel previously removed from the reactor.
The agency described the twin developments as “deeply troubling” and a clear violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions.
North Korea’s plutonium-producing reactor is at Yongbyon
  • appeared to have been inactive from December 2018 until the beginning of July 2021
Producing plutonium will allow the country to expand its arsenal of nuclear weapons. 

Shell (world’s biggest fuel retailer) indicator suggests fuel demand recovery has remained slow

  
Analysis, Crude
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An ICYMI on the still-slow recovery from coronavirus impacts across much of the globe:

  • Shell expects its fuel sales to fall or at best be broadly steady for the first quarter
  • said it saw refined oil product sales at 3.7-4.7 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first quarter compared with just under 4.8 million bpd in the last quarter of 2020. It had previously forecast sales of 4-5 million bpd.
Info via Reuters, was posted overnight ICYMI.
An ICYMI on the still-slow recovery from coronavirus impacts across much of the globe:

Brazil’s central bank hiked its benchmark rate more than was expected

  
  Analysis
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A 75bp hike vs. the 50 that was widely expected from the Banco Central do Brasil.

  • BCB add that they expect to hike another 75bps at the following meeting
  • says it has initiated a partial normalisation process, reducing its extraordinary degree of monetary stimulus
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Despite with the FOMC and Powell tell us I think perhaps the BCB is providing a sneak preview of what is to come from the Fed prior to 2024. We’ll see.

Major European indices end the day with mixed results.

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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A good week for European equities as they benefit from flow of funds

The major European indices are ending the week with mixed results.  The German Dax broke its four day streak that also saw new all time highs being made.
The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, -0.5%
  • France’s CAC, +0.2%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +0.4%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +0.45%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, unchanged
For the week, the major indices are all solidly higher:
  • German Dax, +4.18%
  • France’s CAC, +4.5%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +1.9%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +4.1%
  • Italy’s 4.9%

Year to date, all the indices are also higher:

  • German Dax, +5.71%
  • France’s CAC, +8.87%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +4.62%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +6.9%
  • Italy’s footsie MIB, +8.4%
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are ending the day higher across the board

European yields are higher across the board
In the forex, the snapshot of the strongest weakest as London/European traders look to exit shows the CAD is extending its lead to the upside after a trauma than expected jobs report today. The NZD and GBP remain the weakest. The USD is stronger but losing ground vs the CAD.

China November PMIs: Manufacturing 52.1 (expected 51.5) & Non-manufacturing 56.4 (expected 56.0)

  
Analysis, Economy
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These are the official China PMIs for the month, from the country’s National Bureau of Statistics.

Manufacturing 52.1 big beat and at its highest since September 2017

  • expected 51.5, prior 51.4

Non-manufacturing 56.4 also for a beat, expanded for the ninth straight month, best since June 2012

  • expected 56.0, prior 56.2

Composite 55.7

  • prior 55.3
Via Citi:
  • overall production should carry on the momentum
  • export orders were most likely still robust ahead of Western holiday seasons, and domestic demand may continue to hold up
(Citi comments from a pre-releases note)

FBI: Russia, Iran have attempted to interfere with US election

  
Analysis, Politics
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US directory of national intelligence Ratcliffe announces the discovery

  • US has identified Russia, Iran as countries who have attempted to interfere with the US election
  • Has sent spoof emails designed to intimidate voters, incite unrest, damage Pres. Trump
  • Aware that Russia has obtained some voter information
  • intelligence community court threat, reacted swiftly
  • This is not a partisan issue
  • Prepared for actions by those hostile to democracy

The interference apparently came through emails threatening those who voted against Trump.

Radcliffe says that the email, apparently from The Proud Boys, is intended to hurt Pres. Trump. Of course, if a recipient was intimidated by the email, it might benefit Pres. Trump.
Regardless of the intentions, stopping interference in elections is certainly a prerogative. FBI’s Wray is on the wires saying:
  • The FBI will not tolerate 4 interference elections
  • Election infrastructure remains resilient

UK coronavirus – PM Johson considering imposing tougher lockdown restrictions

  
  Analysis
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UK media (Sun) reporting Boris Johnson is pondering even tougher restrictions

  • tougher lockdown restrictions for millions of people in the north of England
Due to the continued surge in COVID-19 cases.
More from the report:
  • there is “simply no reasonable alternative” to restrictions
  • Pubs and restaurants face closure in Liverpool, Manchester and Newcastle
  • Some shops could also be forced to shut
  • workplaces and schools would remain open.
  • A No 10 source said: “The numbers are going the wrong way, and there will come a point very soon where we simply have to do more.”

US storms – Oil producers on Saturday shut 13% of crude oil production ahead of Laura and Marco

  
Analysis, Crude
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Weekend news on industry response to approach of Gulf storms, posting ICYMI:

Via Reuters:
  • Producers halted 240,785 barrels per day of oil production and 119 million cubic feet per day of natural gas output before noon on Saturday, said regulator U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement.
  • Crews were evacuated from six production and four drilling rigs. Another seven drilling vessels were moved out of the storms’ paths

Weekend reports that North Korea Leader Kim Jong Un in a coma

  
Analysis, Politics
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Earlier this year there all sorts of reports of his illness, but he popped back up again apparently in good health.

Now this:
  • in a coma
  • a former South Korean official is claiming (Chang Song-min, a former aide to late-South Korean president Kim Dae-jung)
  • reports his power has been ceded to his younger sister
Earlier this year there all sorts of reports of his illness, but he popped back up again apparently in good health.
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