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Hedge fund manager Ackman says markets too complacent about the coronavirus

Founder of Pershing Square, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman speaking on Tuesday at the Financial Times’ Dealmakers conference

  • markets once again have become too complacent about the coronavirus.
  • is hedging his equity exposure with insurance against corporate defaults
  • “We’re in a treacherous time generally and what’s fascinating is the same bet we put on eight months ago is available on the same terms as if there had never been a fire and on the probability that the world is going to be fine.”
(Ackman referring to his similar trade earlier in the year that paid off big time).
FT link is here for mote (may be gated)
(This pic for a while back)
Founder of Pershing Square, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman speaking on Tuesday at the Financial Times’ Dealmakers conference

FT report that UK PM Johnson’s 3-year spending master plan to be ditched

Financial Times say that UK Chancellor Sunak has told the PM that current plans should not go ahead due to the chaos of Covid-19.

A decision to scrap the three-year review in favour of a stopgap single-year settlement would be a setback for Mr Johnson, who saw the event as a chance to map out his priorities for a post-Covid world.
Johnson and Sunak have been discussing whether anything can be salvaged from binned plan.
Brexit trade talks appear to be floundering. Coronavirus outbreak infections surging. Lockdown accelerating, and resisted.  Not a lot of good UK news about at present.

Moderna says its coronavirus vaccine will not be ready until 2021

Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel statements on Wednesday, carried in the Financial Times overnight ICYMI.

  • will not seek emergency authorization for Food and Drug Administration approval for its vaccine to use in frontline medical workers and at-risk individuals until Nov. 25 at the earliest.
  • company would not seek FDA approval for use in the general population until late January
  • If the vaccine is proven safe and effective, approval is unlikely to come until at least late March or early April
Link to FT, may be gated.

India is phasing out equipment from Huawei and other Chinese companies from its telecoms networks

The Financial Times with the report on more moves against Huawei.

Main issue seems to be over the China-India border clashes
  • no formal written ban on Chinese equipment suppliers like Huawei and ZTE, nor any public pronouncements have been made
  • but key ministries have clearly indicated that local telecom service providers should avoid using Chinese equipment
The FT cites:
  • “It’s open now that the government is not going to allow Chinese equipment,” a top telecom industry executive told the FT. “There is now clarity . . . It’s really game over.”

The Financial Times with the report on more moves against Huawei.

FT report: China cautious on hitting back at US companies after Huawei sanctions

The Financial Times writes that despite mounting political pressure to unveil commensurate restrictions on US businesses in China, Beijing has historically been reluctant to retaliate. 

Analysts think officials will continue to hold back, as they are reluctant to upset the economic benefits and innovation US companies bring to China.
The US administrations targeting of China’s biggest technology groups incldueds moves against:
  • ByteDance
  • Tencent
  • as well as Huawei
Link to FT is here (may be gated).  The FT cite analysts (named in the piece) for the opinions.
If they are right perhaps US-China relations will not chill much further after all.
The Financial Times writes that despite mounting political pressure to unveil commensurate restrictions on US businesses in China, Beijing has historically been reluctant to retaliate. 

Brexit talks look set to hit another roadblock, this time over truck access to the EU

The Financial Times report that Brexit trade talks set to stall again over British truckers’ EU access

  • Brussels warns that UK demands on haulage are too close to single-market rights

Brussels has rejected the UK’s opening demands for continued wide-ranging access to the EU for British truckers
This is just one of the points upon which negotiations will stall. Fishing rights, state subsidies are others. Talks are this week between the two sides.
The Financial Times report that Brexit trade talks set to stall again over British truckers' EU accessBrussels warns that UK demands on haulage are too close to single-market rights

Hu Xijin of China Financial Times lobs some warnings to the US way

US closes China’s Houston consulate

The US announced today the closing of China’s Houston consulate.  Now China Global Times is lobbing some warning the US way.
US closes China's Houston consulate

The warm and fuzzy feelings between US and China are not all that warm and fuzzy needless to say.  It is hard to see things getting better.

FT report Hedge funds taking the blame for a drop in JGB prices

While we await more Asian centres coming online a piece to check out in the Financial Times

It notes falls in sovereign bonds outside of Japan also of course, “driven by an unusual outbreak of optimism about the global economic outlook”
  • But falls for Japanese Government Bonds “have stood out”
With “some analysts say they bear the fingerprints of trend-seeking computerised hedge funds scrambling to cover losses”
The FT is gated, but if you can access it, here is the link 
While we await more Asian centres coming online a piece to check out in the Financial Times 

The bigger fool theory

Cartoon inspired by this article written by Peter Tasker in the Financial Times
“The inconvenient truth is that gold is not really an investment at all. Since it generates no return and thus has no fundamental value, the same arguments can be used to justify any price – $500 an ounce or $5,000. Gold buyers are simply trusting in the bigger fool theory – that someone else will take it off their hands at a higher price. They are speculating, not investing, and like all speculators what they are speculating on is the speculations of other speculators. Packaging it in an exchange-traded fund makes no difference.

IMF Seeking Boost In Lending Cap By $250 Billion To $1 Trillion

In the latest sign yet that things in the world are roughly 25% worse than expected (give or take), the FT reports that the IMF will seek an imminent rise in its lending cap from $750 billion to $1 trillion to build safety nets that could prevent financial crises. “Even when not in a time of crisis, a big fund, likely to intervene massively, is something that can help prevent crises,” Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF managing director told the Financial Times. “Just because the financing role decreases, doesn’t mean we don’t need to have huge firepower … a $1,000bn fund is a correct forecast.” At this point it is glaringly obvious that without the explicit support of the various central banks and of such fake international but really US organizations as the IMF, the already prevalent liquidity crisis would simply destroy the world. The troubling theme is that instead of taking away incremental worries, we have now gotten to the point where one bailout, like a butterfly in China, merely requires 10 more down the road. Alas, instead of a virtuous Keynesian dynamic, this is anything but.

Some more on the IMF’s feeble attempt at justifying the need for its exploding funding requirements, as well as its own attempt to validate that all is well:

 
 

South Korea, as this year’s president of the Group of 20 leading economies, is helping craft the plan. Seoul hopes to convince the G20 countries to back the increased IMF funding at a summit in South Korea in November. The G20 meeting in London in 2009 tripled IMF resources from $250bn. A US official said Washington was sympathetic to improved safety nets but needed more details on the Korean-IMF plan.

South Korean economists forged the plan because of their own bitter experience of their currency and stock market plunging in 2008. In spite of robust economic fundamentals, Seoul needed to be rescued from a dangerous liquidity shortfall by swaps from the US, Japan and China. (more…)

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