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CFTC Commitments of traders: JPY shorts increase to largest level since early December

  
Analysis, Forex
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Weekly FX futures positioning data from the CFTC

  • EUR short 47K vs 48K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • GBP long 25K vs 31K long last week. Longs increased by 6K
  • JPY short 45K vs 31K short last week. Shorts increased by 14k
  • CHF 1.5K vs flat last week. Longs increased by 1.5K
  • AUD short 19k vs 20K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • NZD long 1.8K vs square last week. Longs increased by 1.8K
  • CAD long 38k vs 33K long last week. Longs increased by 5K

Weekly FX futures positioning data from the CFTC

European shares rebound to end the week

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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German Dax up 1.3%.  France’s CAC, up 0.8%.  UK’s FTSE 100, +1.1%

The major European indices are ending the day higher.  For the week all but the German Dax fell.
A look at the provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, +1.3%
  • France’s CAC, +0.8%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +1.1%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +0.4%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.0%

For the week, all but the German Dax are ending lower.  Provisional changes are showing

  • German DAX +0.32%
  • France’s CAC -1.34%
  • UK’s FTSE 100 -1.1%
  • Spain’s Ibex -1.3%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.82%
In other markets as the European/London traders look to exit:
  • Spot gold is trading up $9.80 or 0.64% at $1572.90
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading down $1.43 or -2.57% at $54.16
US stocks have tilted back to the downside as a US Sen. tells of the 3rd case of the coronavirus in the US.  Weekend fear is being elevated:
  • S&P index -15.78 points or -0.46% at 3309.78
  • NASDAQ index -24.97 points or -0.26% at 9377.62
  • Dow -87 points or -0.29% at 29073.83

US stocks close mixed in a up and back down session

  
Analysis, US Market
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No new records today..

The US stocks close mixed in a up and down session. The NASDAQ closed higher. The S&P closed near unchanged and the Dow fell.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index closed up 1.02 points or 0.03% at 3321.81. The high reached 3337.77. The low extended to 3320.04
  • Nasdaq index closed up 12.963 points or 0.14% at 9383.77. The high reached 9439.29. The low extended to 9375.129
  • The Dow industrial average fell -9.22 points or -0.03% at 29186.80. The high reached 29320.20. The low extended to 29172.26

Although there were intraday new highs for both the S&P and Nasdaq indices, the gains could not be maintained.

Not a lot of key earnings today, but tomorrow American Airlines, Southwest, Intuitive Surgical and Intel will all report earnings.

European shares close lower on China virus concerns

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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German DAX unchanged

The coronavirus concerns have sapped upside momentum from European shares. The falls come despite economic data out of Europe that was not bad.   UK employment data was strong and German/EU ZEW sentiment data was also better-than-expected.

The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, unchanged
  • France’s CAC, -0.54%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -0.57%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.57%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.6%
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are ending mostly lower with Italian yields up marginally.  France’s 10 year yield move back toward the 0.0% level. The low reached 0.001%.
German DAX unchanged_
In other markets,
  • gold slid earlier to a low price of $1546.41, but has rebounded and currently trades at $1557.19. That’s down about $3.50 or -0.23%
  • WTI crude oil futures are down $0.25 or 0.43% of $58.29
In the US stock market the NASDAQ index turned positive after opening lower and traded to it a new all-time high.
The current prices are showing:
  • S&P index -3.04 points or -0.09% 3326.60
  • NASDAQ index +5.068 points or 0.06% at 9394.20
  • Dow industrial average -41.7 points or -0.14% at 29306.64
In the US debt market yields are lower led by declines in the 10 year yield up -4.6 basis points. The yield curve is also flattened with the 2 – 10 spread falling to 23.74 basis points from 26.23 basis points on Friday..

North Korea warns the US that there may not be deunclearisation if sanctions continue

  
Analysis, Politics
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Some comments from North Korea being cited by Reuters

US NK
  • US has ignored year-end deadline for nuclear talks
  • No reason for North Korea to be unilaterally bound to any commitment
  • US is applying ‘the most brutal and inhuman sanctions’
  • If US continues with ‘hostile policies’ towards North Korea, there will never be denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula
Much like the Iran issue, this is one that does not really matter until it does – when something escalates in a significant manner. For now, just take note that US-North Korea relations have been deteriorating as of late and tensions are beginning to mount once again.

US equities close higher again with a strong finish to cap a great week

  
Analysis, US Market
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US equity performance on Friday

  • S&P 500 up 13 points to 3329 or +0.4%
  • DJIA +0.2%
  • Nasdaq +0.3%
On the week:
  • S&P 500 +1.9%
  • DJIA +1.8%
  • Nasdaq +2.3%
The gains have been non-stop in large caps but it hasn’t been quite the same party in small and mid-caps. I’ll be watching the Russell 2000 in the weeks ahead as it approaches resistance.
US equity performance on Friday

European shares end mostly lower. FTSE 100 does rise though

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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UK FTSE 100, +0.23%

The major European indices are ending the session mostly lower. The the exception is the UK’s FTSE 100 which has moved up by 0.23% on the day.
The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, -0.28%
  • France’s CAC, -0.2%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +0.23%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.24%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.69%
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are mostly lower (with the exception of the Portuguese 10 year note):
The European yields are lowerIn other markets as London/European traders look to exit for the day (and just ahead of the ceremonial signing of the US/China phase 1 trade deal):

  • Spot gold is up $4.25 or 0.28% at $1550.63
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading down $0.51 or -0.86% at $57.74
In the US stock market the major indices are higher and trading at record levels:
  • S&P index up 14.9 points or 0.46% at 3298.13 (high for the day). It is getting closer to the 3300 level
  • NASDAQ index is up 42.84 points or 0.46% at 9294.17. The high reached 9298.82 just short of the 9300 level
  • The Dow is up 168 points or 0.58% at 29108.24
In the US debt market, the yields are lower and the yield curve flatter again with the 2 – 10 year spread down to 22.44 basis points from 24.09 basis points at the close yesterday.

US stocks stumble after hitting record highs

  
Analysis, US Market
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Closing changes for North American trade on January 10, 2020:

Closing changes for North American trade on January 10, 2020:
On the day:
  • S&P 500 down 9 points to 3265 after hitting 3282 (-0.3%)
  • DJIA down 133 points to 28823
  • Nasdaq down 24 points to 9178

On the week:

  • S&P 500 up 0.9%
  • DJIA up 0.7%
  • Nasdaq +1.75%

The turnaround today is a bit of warning signal. Note that January is a weak seasonal month but there is a long-term trend of strength early in the month. I also tend to think the signing of the ‘phase one’ deal is sell-the-fact risk.

Stock indices end lower. All S&P sectors close lower on the day

  
Analysis, US Market
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Late day selling hurts major indices

Some late day selling has pushed the major indices into the red.  All the S&P sectors are closing lower on the day.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index -9.13 points or -0.28% to 3237.15. The high reached 3244.91.The low extended to 3232.43
  • NASDAQ index fell -2.883 points or -0.03% to 9068.58. The high reached 9091.93. The low extended to 9042.55
  • Dow fell -119.97 points or -0.42% to 28583.43. The high reached 28685.50. The low extended to 28565.28.

Day 1 of 2020 and record closes for the major indices, and at session highs too.

  
Analysis, US Market
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NASDAQ index leads the way with a gain over 1.33%

It is day one of 2020 and the major indices are all closing at record levels. The NASDAQ index is leading the way with a gain over 1%.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index rose 27.21 points or 0.84% to 3257.98. The high price was at 3258.14. The low extended to 3235.53
  • NASDAQ index rose 119.58 points or 1.33% to 9092.18. The high reached 9093.43. The low extended to 9010.89
  • Dow industrial average rose 331.51 points or 1.16% to 28869.95. The high reached 28872.80. The low extended to 28627.77
It is only one day, but the markets are starting off with a flourish in 2020.  Apple reached $300.00 and is closing above the $300 level for the first time ever (closing at $300.35).   For the day Apple rose $6.70 or 2.28%.
Other big gainers among the big names include:
  • AMD, +7.06%
  • Tencent, +3.77%
  • Alibaba, +3.61%
  • Northrop Grumman rose 3.39%
  • micron, +3.03%
  • Tesla, +2.87%
  • Amazon rose 2.72%
  • Salesforce rose 2.69%
  • Disney rose to 2.43%
  • PayPal rose 2.39%
  • Apple rose 2.28%
  • Facebook rose 2.21%
  • Alphabet rose 2.19%

Laggards include:

  • General Mills, -2.67%
  • Target, -1.68%
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb, -1.23%
  • Procter & Gamble, -1.15%
  • Costco, -0.83%
  • Papa John’s, -0.46%
  • Coca-Cola, -0.63%
  • Wells Fargo, -0.04%
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