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Major indices close lower. Indices also lower for the week

  
Analysis, US Market
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All-time highs were made but Thursday and Friday selling take the gains away

The major stock indices are ending the day lower with the NASDAQ falling by -1.79%. In a week where the NASDAQ and S&P index made new all-time highs, selling on Thursday and Friday have taken those gains away. The major indices are ending the week lower.

The final numbers are showing:
  • Dow industrial average -227.30 points or -0.78% at 28992.68
  • S&P index -35.55 points or -1.05% at 3337.68
  • NASDAQ index -174.38 points or -1.79% at 9576.59.
For the week, the Dow industrial average was the weakest followed closely by the NASDAQ index:
  • Dow industrial average, -1.46%
  • S&P index, -1.07%
  • Nasdaq index -1.39%

CFTC Commitments of Traders: Euro shorts continue to build

  
Analysis, Forex
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Weekly FX futures positioning data from the CFTC for the week ending Feb 11, 2020:

  • EUR short 86K vs 75K short last week. Shorts increased by 11K
  • GBP long 21K vs 13K long last week. Longs increased by 8K
  • JPY short 26K vs 21K short last week. Shorts increased by 5k
  • CHF long 4K vs 5K long last week. Longs decreased by 1K
  • AUD short 33k vs 43K short last week. Shorts decreased by 10K
  • NZD short 4K vs 2K short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
  • CAD long 10k vs 19K long last week. Longs decreased by 9K

China said to stagger reopening of schools in order to limit coronavirus transmission

  
  Analysis
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Reuters reports, citing a government official on the matter

No firm date is being given on the matter but earlier in the month, China has said that students will only return to school next month.

It makes sense to split the reopening into batches but if anything else, it just goes to show that it will take more time before China returns back to normality again.

S&P and NASDAQ closed at record levels. Major indices go out near highs

  
Analysis, US Market
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NASDAQ index rises by 1.13%

The NASDAQ juggernaut has continued with the index rising by 107.87 points or 1.13% on the day. For the year the index is now up over 7%.
Both the NASDAQ and the S&P closed at record levels today. The Dow industrial average is still short of its all-time record.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index +24.38 points or 0.73% at 3352.09. The high price reached 3352.26. The low extended to 3317.77.
  • NASDAQ index +107.87 points or 1.13% at 9628.39. The high price reached at 9628.66. The low extended to 9493.62.
  • Dow industrial average +174.31 points or 0.60% at 29276.82. The high price reached 29215.00. The low extended to 28850.00

Some of the big winners on the day included:

  • Slack, +15.44%.
  • Lyft, +7.41%
  • AMD, +5.09%
  • Nvidia, +4.51%
  • Chipotle, +3.09%
  • Tesla, +3.06%
  • Amazon, +2.63%
  • Microsoft, +2.59%
  • Boeing, +2.35%
  • Alphabet, +2.00%
  • Cisco, +1.90%
  • General Motors, +1.84%
  • Tencent, +1.8%
  • Square, +1.7%
  • Visa, +1.64%
  • Home Depot, +1.39%
Some of the underperformers during today’s trading day include:
  • Twitter, -2.89%
  • Exxon Mobil, -2.47%
  • DuPont, -1.48%
  • Charles Schwab, -1.14%
  • Walmart, -1.03%
  • Deutsche Bank, -0.96%
  • United health, -0.76%
  • Pfizer, -0.63%
  • Emerson, -0.52%
  • AliBaba, -0.38%

Ahead of markets in China opening for Wednesday – support measures so far and here is what is still to come

  
  Analysis
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Nomura provide a summary of the market-supporting actions out of China (these have been discussed on ForexLive in prior days this week but this a nice summary)

PBOC:
  • cut the OMO rate by 10bps for both 7 and 14 day RRs
  • Monday PBoC injected CNY 2.1tln of short-term interbank liquidity (maturing loans offset some of this)
  • Tuesday the PBoC injected a further CNY net 00 bn yuan in RRs – largest single-day addition since January 2019
CSRC:
  • suspended securities lending from Monday until further notice
  • some funds were told to avoid actively selling stocks
    prop traders at brokerages told they were not permitted to be net sellers of equities this week
    would halt night sessions for futures trading
  • to allow some share pledge contracts to be extended by as long as six months
MoF:
  • an interest subsidy scheme for new loans ear-marked for medical supply companies fighting coronavirus
  • policies to extend loans to entrepreneurs and SMEs which have been hit by the coronavirus
They go on with what is still expected to come:
PBOC expected to cut RRR by 50 to 100bp
  • more MLF operations and OMOs coming (to inject long & short-term liquidity into the banking system)
  • MLF rate cut (by 10bps) – to be relfected in the February Loan Prime Rate (on the 20th)
Other:
  • tax/fee cuts, waivers
  • boost to u/e and insurance benefits to people who have lost income or been infected with the virus
  • higher fiscal deficits
  • local governments to get more flexibility in easing restrictions on the property sectors

CFTC commitments of traders: EUR shorts increase.

  
Analysis, Forex
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Weekly FX futures positioning data from the CFTC

  • EUR short 59K vs 47K short last week. Shorts increased by 12K
  • GBP long 18K vs 25K long last week. Longs decreased by 7K
  • JPY short 36K vs 45K short last week. Shorts increased by 9k
  • CHF loan 3.5K vs 1.5 long last week. Longs increased by 2K
  • AUD short 27k vs 19K short last week. Shorts increased by 8K
  • NZD long 2K vs 1.8K longlast week. Longs increased by 0.2K
  • CAD long 35k vs 38K long last week. Longs decreased by 3K

Highlights:

  • EUR shorts had the biggest change in week (increase of 12K to the short side).
  • The EUR short 59K is the largest speculative position
  • JPY shorts trimmed. I have to think that there might be more liquidation over the last few days on the back of the coronavirus.
Below is the history of the EUR. It has been negative since the 1st week of October 2018.
Weekly FX futures positioning data from the CFTC_

Stocks end ugly as weekend coronavirus fears can’t slow the slide

  
Analysis, US Market
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Dow down -600 points/-2.09%

The US stocks end an ugly day near the lows for the day. The Dow industrial average fell by over 600 points/2%. It was the worst day since August 23.  Moreover the Dow ended the month lower for the 1st time in 5 months. For the S&P it had their worst day since October 2 . The Dow ended the month lower for the 1st time in 5 months.  The S&P and NASDAQ had their worst start to the year in 5 years.  You get the picture.

The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P fell -58.14 points or -1.77% to 3225.52
  • Nasdaq fell -148 points or -1.59% to 9150.94
  • Dow fell -603.41 points or -2.09% to 28256.03.
For the month, the Nasdaq did still and positive for the month, but the S&P and Dow closed the month lower.
  • S&P, -0.16%
  • Nasdaq, +1.99%
  • Dow, -0.99%
In Europe today the major indices also closed near session lows. On what happened and Portugal but the PSI 20 did peek out a gain for the day.
Dow down -600 points/-2.09%

US major indices close at session highs. Reverse near 1% declines

  
Analysis, US Market
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Up and down session but by the end, the bulls prevail

The major US indices are ending the day near session highs and higher on the day. It took nearly all day to get back in the black. At the lows, the S&P index was down -0.93% the low, the NASDAQ index was down -0.97%, and the Dow industrial average was down -0.85%.
At the close, the final numbers show:
  • S&P index it is closing up 10.17 points or 0.31% at 3283.57
  • NASDAQ index is closing up 23.77 points or 0.26% at 9298.93
  • Dow industrial average it is closing up 123.8 points or 0.43% at 28858.25

The European markets did not fare as well. The German DAX fell by -1.41%. The France’s CAC fell by 1.4%.

Below are the percentage ranges for the major European and US indices along with the closing percentage change levels.
Up and down session but by the end, the bulls prevail_

Dow and S&P have the worst day since October

  
Analysis, US Market
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NASDAQ has its worst day since August.   Fears about coronavirus send major indices lower.

Major indices are ending the session sharply lower. The Dow and S&P had their worst day since October. The NASDAQ index fared even worse with its worst day since August.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index -51.89 points or -1.57% to 3243.57. The high reached 3258.85. The low extended to 3234.50 (early in the session).
  • NASDAQ index fell -175.60 points or -1.89% to 9139.30. The high reached 9185.449. The low extended to 9088.043.
  • Dow industrial average fell -453.93 points or -1.57% to 28535.80.  The high reached 28671.79. The low extended to 28440.47.
Some losers on the day included:
  • United Airlines, -5.26%
  • Schlumberger, -5.06%
  • Broadcom, -4.69%
  • Nvidia, -4.12%
  • Intel, -4.07%
  • Micron, -4.04%
  • Alibaba, -3.78%
  • Intuitive Surgical, -3.65%
  • FedEx -3.65%
  • DuPont, +3.4%
  • Delta airlines -3.38%
  • Caterpillar, -3.35%
  • American Express, -3.32%
  • Disney, -3.05%
  • Apple -2.93%
Winners in a huge down day included:
  • Beyond Meat, +4.43%
  • Chewy, +1.79%
  • target, +1.29%
  • Walmart, +1.28%
  • Gilead, +1.12%
  • Pfizer, +0.8%
  • Procter & Gamble, +0.42%
  • Walgreens Boots, +0.35%
  • Stryker, +0.16%
  • Merck, +0.16%
Whirlpool is reporting and beat of $4.91 versus estimate of $4.27.  Revenues fell short of expectations at 5.38 billion versus 5.52 billion estimate.  Whirlpool shares are trading at $149 per share that’s up $0.77 or 0.52%.

Earnings releases pickup tomorrow with 3M, Starbucks, Apple, Pfizer and Lockheed Martin as some of the key releases.

Other key releases this week include:
  • Wednesday: Tesla, McDonald’s, Microsoft, Boeing, Facebook
  • Thursday: Amazon, UPS, Coca-Cola, Electronic Arts, Biogen
  • Friday: Chevron, Honeywell, Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil, Colgate-Palmolive

Markets wake up: Oil drops, gold jumps, yen bid

  
Analysis, Gold / Silver
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Risk aversion kicks in

Risk aversion kicks in
Gold is up $14 in the first minutes of trading while WTI crude has fallen 2.5% to $52.85. S&P 500 futures are down 1%. The US 10-year note future contract is up 11 ticks.
The yen is bid but not as much as I anticipated. NZD/JPY is down 50 pips to 71.69 and is the biggest percentage mover. USD/JPY is down 45 pips to 108.83.
Get ready for a wild week.
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