Archives of “financial capital” tag

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Japan core machinery orders for December -12.5% m/m (expected -8.9%)

  
Analysis, Economy
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A capex indicator for Japan in the months ahead, 6 to 9 months out.

-12.5% m/m
  • expected -8.9%, prior 18.0% m/m
-3.5% y/y
  • expected -0.7%, prior 5.3% y/y
The m/m is very volatile, the y/y is a little smoother. Both are misses though.
As part of the process the Cabinet Office survey manufacturers:
  • the firms expect core orders will fall 5.2% in Q1 of this year (from -2.1% in Q4 2019)

26 -W. D. Gann’s Never-Failing / Valuable Rules

  
Analysis, Education
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  1. Amount of capital to use: Divide your capital into 10 equal parts and never risk more than one-tenth of your capital on any one trade.
  2. Use stop loss orders. Always protect a trade when you make it with a stop loss order 1 to 3 cents, never more than 5 cents away, cotton 20 to 40, never more than 60 points away. (3 to 5 points away for stocks)
  3. Never overtrade. This would be violating your capital rules.
  4. Never let a profit run into a loss. After you once have a profit of 3 cents or more, raise your stop loss order so that you will have no loss of capital. For cotton when the profits are 60 points or more place stop where there will be no loss.
  5. Do not buck the trend. Never buy or sell if you are not sure of the trend according to your charts and rules.
  6. When in doubt, get out, and don’t get in when in doubt.
  7. Trade only in active markets. Keep out of slow, dead ones.
  8. Equal distribution of risk. Trade in 2 or 3 different commodities, if possible. (Trade in 4 or 5 stocks, is possible.) Avoid tying up all your capital in any one commodity or stock.
  9. Never limit your orders or fix a buying or selling price. Trade at the market.
  10. Don’t close your trades without a good reason. Follow up with a stop loss order to protect your profits.
  11. Accumulate a surplus. After you have made a series of successful trades, put some money into a surplus account to be used only in emergency or in times of panic.
  12. Never buy or sell just to get a scalping profit. Never buy just to get a dividend.
  13. Never average a loss. This is one of the worst mistakes a trader can make.
  14. Never get out of the market just because you have lost patience or get into the market because you are anxious from waiting.
  15. Avoid taking small profits and big losses.
  16. Never cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it at the time you make a trade.
  17. Avoid getting in and out of the market too often.
  18. Be just as willing to sell short as you are to buy. Let your object be to keep with the trend and make money.
  19. Never buy just because the price of a commodity or stock is low or sell short just because the price is high
  20. Be careful about pyramiding at the wrong time. Wait until the commodity or stock is very active and has crossed Resistance Levels before buying more and until it has broken out of the zone of distribution before
    selling more.
  21. Select the commodities that show strong uptrend to pyramid on the buying side and the ones that show definite downtrend to sell short. For stocks, select the stocks with small volume of shares outstanding to pyramid on the buying side and the ones with the largest volume of stock outstanding to sell short.
  22. Never hedge. If you are long of one commodity or stock and it starts to go down, do not sell another commodity or stock short to hedge it. Get out at the market; take your loss and wait for another opportunity.
  23. Never change your position in the market without good reason. When you make a trade, let it be for some good reason or according to some definite rule; then do not get out without a definite indication of a
    change in trend.
  24. Avoid increasing your trading after a long period of success or a period of profitable trades.
  25. Don’t guess when the market is top. Let the market prove it is top. Don’t guess when the market is bottom. Let the market prove it is bottom. By following definite rules, you can do this.
  26. Do not follow another man’s advice unless you know that he knows more than you do.
  27. Reduce trading after first loss; never increase.
  28. Avoid getting in wrong and out wrong; getting in right and out wrong; this is making double mistakes.

Patience

  
  Education
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The most difficult thing for traders to do is to sit there and wait. Why? Because, we live in a world that is on a total dopamine, hypomanic binge. This is never more clearly manifest than by those who absolutely have to be in the markets at all times, desperately need to be trading and simply cannot wait. They are human do-ings, rather than human be-ings.

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There is a wonderful advantage to waiting for the right entry and exit points. This allows you to be in a market- neutral mindset, and frees you from looking frantically for bearish or bullish views to justify your biases. Granted, you are not making money, but you are also (and much more importantly) not losing it. You are preserving capital. You can take time to reflect study, hone and refine your trading plan, adopt some healthy exercise and dietary habits, and become a stronger and more centered person. Simply waiting without stress for the right opportunity allows you to become a more rational and impartial observer.

Patience frees you from active involvement in the chaotic, and often reckless, behavior of others in the markets, and it puts you and your trading plan into a clearer perspective. It allows you to see yourself as a human be-ing, rather than a human do-ing.

When you first started trading, what did you hear constantly? Preserve your capital. You heard it, but maybe you did not listen, or did not understand. If you have no financial capital to use, you are out of the game. If you are chasing or getting in just to get in and are getting whipsawed daily; and you are losing, drip by drip, or in larger chunks, you are out of the game. If you are cutting your winners too quickly and letting your losers ride, you are out of the game.

If you wait, take time, assess the situation and then pounce like a jaguar at the right opportunity, your chances for trader longevity increase significantly. You have preserved your financial capital, and deployed it appropriately with a good risk/reward ratio.

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