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What Winners Do

  
  Education
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“A losing trader can do little to transform himself into a winning trader. A losing trader is not going to want to transform himself. That’s the kind of thing winning traders do.”

– Ed Seykota

It may sound trivial, or overly simple. And yet it is so important. Being a winner starts with a firm commitment to winning.

And that commitment starts with a relentless determination to do what it takes to win — day in and day out, leaving no stone unturned.

Are you a committed winner? What steps are you taking to make 2014 your biggest and best year ever?

18+1 Trading Rules for Traders

  
  Education
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  1. NEVER, EVER, EVER ADD TO A LOSING POSITION: EVER!: Adding to a losing position eventually leads to ruin, remembering Enron, Long Term Capital Management, Nick Leeson and myriad others.
  2. TRADE LIKE A MERCENARY SOLDIER: As traders/investors we are to fight on the winning side of the trade, not on the side of the trade we may believe to be economically correct. We are pragmatists first, foremost and always.
  3. MENTAL CAPITAL TRUMPS REAL CAPITAL: Capital comes in two forms… mental and real… and defending losing positions diminishes one’s finite and measurable real capital and one’s infinite and immeasurable mental capital accordingly and alway.
  4. WE ARE NOT IN THE BUSINESS OF BUYING LOW AND SELLING HIGH: We are in the business of buying high and selling higher, or of selling low and buying lower. Strength begets strength; weakness more weakness.
  5. IN BULL MARKETS ONE MUST TRY ALWAYS TO BE LONG OR NEUTRAL: The corollary, obviously, is that in bear markets one must try always to be short or neutral. There are exceptions, but they are very, very rare.
  6. “MARKETS CAN REMAIN ILLOGICAL FAR LONGER THAN YOU OR I CAN REMAIN SOLVENT:” So said Lord Keynes many years ago and he was… and is… right, for illogic does often reign, despite what the academics would have us believe.
  7. BUY THAT WHICH SHOWS THE GREATEST STRENGTH; SELL THAT WHICH SHOWS THE GREATEST WEAKNESS: Metaphorically, the wettest paper sacks break most easily and the strongest winds carry ships the farthest,fastest.
  8. THINK LIKE A FUNDAMENTALIST; TRADE LIKE A TECHNICIAN:Be bullish… or bearish… only when the technicals and the fundamentals, as you understand them, run in tandem.
  9. TRADING RUNS IN CYCLES; SOME GOOD, MOST BAD: In the “Good Times” even one’s errors are profitable; in the inevitable “Bad Times” even the most well researched trade shall goes awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it and move on. (more…)

High-frequency trading: when milliseconds mean millions

  
  Education
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Asked to imagine what a Wall Street share-dealing room looks like and the layman will describe a testosterone-fuelled bear pit crammed full of alpha males in brightly coloured jackets, frantically shouting out bid and offer prices.

He couldn’t be more wrong. Technological advances mean that stocks are now traded digitally on computer servers in often anonymous – but heavily guarded – buildings, generally miles away from the historic epicentres of finance, meaning the brash men in sharp suits depicted in films such as the The Wolf of Wall Street have been dethroned as the kings of finance.
Computer programmers have taken their crown thanks to the code they churn out, which is able to execute trades thousands of times faster than any human. (more…)

Book Review : Jesse Livermore: Boy Plunger

  
  Education
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71bdRlXbWuLThis is a story of triumph and tragedy.  Jesse Livermore is notable as one of the few people who ever made it into the richest tiers of society by speculating — by trading stocks and commodities — betting on price movements.

This is three stories in one.  Story one is the clever trader with an intuitive knack who learned to adapt when conditions changed, until the day came when it got too hard.  Story two is the man who lacked financial risk control, and took big chances, a few of which worked out spectacularly, and a few of ruined him financially.  Story three is how too much success, if not properly handled, can ruin a man, with lust, greed and pride leading to his death.

The author spends most of his time on story one, next most on story two, then the least on story three.  The three stories flow naturally from the narrative that is largely chronological.  By the end of the book, you see Jesse Livermore — a guy who did amazing things, but ultimately failed in money and life.

Let me briefly summarize those three aspects of his life so that you can get a feel for what you will run into in the book:

The Clever Trader

Jesse Livermore came to the stock market in Boston at age 14, and was a very quick study.  He showed intuition on market affairs that impressed the most of the older men who came to trade at the brokerage where he worked.  It wasn’t too long before he wanted to invest for himself, but he didn’t have enough money to open a brokerage account, so he went to a bucket shop.  Bucket shops were gambling parlors where small players gambled on stock prices.  He showed a knack for the game and made a lot of money.  Like someone who beats the casinos in Vegas, the proprietors forced him to leave.

He then had more than enough money to meet his current needs, and set up a brokerage account.  But the stock market did not behave like a bucket shop, and so he lost money while he learned to adapt.  Eventually, he succeeded at speculating on both stocks and commodities, leading to his greatest successes in being short the stock market prior to the panic of 1907, and the crash in 1929.  During the 1920s, he started his own firm to try to institutionalize his gifts, and it worked for much of the era. (more…)

Day Traders : Read These Rules EveryDay-Spend 10 Minutes

  
  Education
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  1. There is no single true path. 
  2. The universal trait is discipline.
  3. Trade your personality.
  4. Failure and perseverance are part of every successful trader’s life.
  5. Great traders are flexible.
  6. It takes time to become a successful trader.
  7. Keep a record of your market observations.
  8. Develop a trading philosophy.
  9. What is your edge?  Big picture tech, change, on the cusp, understand big trend before others, shifts.
  10. Confidence is important, and you build it from hard work.
  11. Hard work.
  12. Obsessiveness.
  13. Market wizards are innovators, not followers.
  14. To be a winner you have to be willing to take a loss!
  15. Risk control.  Stop-loss, or reducing position size, limit initial position size, short selling.
  16. You can’t be afraid of risk
  17. Some limit downside by focusing on undervalued stocks. (but still can drop.)
  18. Value alone is not enough.  Need catalysts.
  19. The importance of catalysts.
  20. Focus not only on when to get in, but when to get out

23 One Liner For Traders

  
  Education
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1. All successful traders use methods that suit their
personality; You are neither Waren Buffett nor George Soros nor Jesse Livermore; Don’t assume you can trade like them.

2. What the market does is beyond your control; Your reaction to the market, however, is not beyond your control. Indeed, its the ONLY thing you can control.

3. To be a winner, you have to be willing to
take a loss; 
(The Stop-Loss Breakdown)

4. HOPE is not a word in the winning Trader’s vocabulary;

5. When you are on a
losing streak — and you will eventually find yourself on one — reduce your position size;

6. Don’t underestimate the time it
takes to succeed as a trader — it takes 10 years to become very good at anything;  (There Are No Shortcuts)

7. Trading is a vocation — not a
hobby

8. Have a business/trading plan; 
(Write This Down)

9. Identify your greatest weakness, Be honest — and DEAL with it (more…)

Emotions and Mindset

  
  Education
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Emotional stability and discipline is the foundation upon which a trader has to build his trading methodology. Without the ability to control emotions and the impulsive trading decisions emotions cause, the best trading system and the best thought-out risk management approach are useless.

I truly feel that I could give away all my secrets and it wouldn’t make any difference. Most people can’t control their emotions or follow a system.  – Linda Raschke
Markets are never wrong – opinions often are. – Jesse Livermore
I don’t get caught up in the moment. – Ray Dalio
If you argue with the market, you will lose. – Larry Hite
The psychological factor for investing has 5 areas. These include a well-rounded personal life, a positive attitude, the motivation to make money, lack of conflict [such as psychological hang ups about success], and responsibility for results.  -Dr. Van K. Tharp
It is hard enough to know what the market is going to do; if you don’t know what you are going to do, the game is lost. – Alexander Elder 

These quote highlight the fact that, before you get into the nitty-gritty of your trading system and try to tweak your stop loss or take profit placement, you have to work on your discipline. It is not a stop loss order that should have been placed 5 points higher or lower that makes the difference between a consistently losing and a profitable trader, but the degree to how a trader can avoid emotionally caused trading mistakes.

Trader’s Emotions

  
  Education
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The hardest thing about trading is not the math, the method, or the stock picking. It is dealing with the emotions that arise with trading itself. From the stress of actually entering a trade, to the fear of losing the paper profits that you are holding in a winning trade, how you deal with those emotions will determine your success more than any one thing.

To manage your emotions first of all you must trade a system and method you truly believe will be a winner in the long term.

You must understand that every trade is not a winner and not blame yourself for equity draw downs if you are trading with discipline.

Do not bet your entire account on any one trade, in fact risking only 1% of your total capital on any one trade is the best thing you can do for your stress levels and risk of ruin odds.

With that in place here are some examples of emotional equations to better understand why you feel certain emotions strongly in your trading:

Despair = Losing Money – Trading Better

Do not despair look at your losses as part of doing business and as paying tuition fees to the markets.

Disappointment = Expectations – Reality (more…)

40 One Liners For Traders

  
  Education
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1. Trading is simple, but it is not easy.40 rules

2.  When you get into a trade watch for the signs that you might be wrong.

3.  Trading should be boring.

4.  Amateur traders turn into professional traders once they stop looking for the “next great indicator.”

5.  You are trading other traders, not stocks or futures contracts.

6.  Be very aware of your own emotions.

7.  Watch yourself for too much excitement.

8.  Don’t overtrade.

9.  If you come into trading with the idea of making big money you are doomed.

10.  Don’t focus on the money.

11.  Do not impose your will on the market.

12.  The best way to minimize risk is to not trade when it is not time to trade. 

13.  There is no need to trade five days a week.  

14.  Refuse to damage your capital.

15.  Stay relaxed. (more…)

Quotable Quotes from Ed Seykota

  
Analysis, Education
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I was reading a bit more about Ed Seykota after seeing The Whipsaw Song.

Ed Seykota became famous after appearing in Jack Schwager’s Wall Street Wizards book. He has an Electrical Engineering degree from MIT and was one of the pioneers of systems trading. He supposedly returned 250,000% over 16 years for one of the accounts he managed.

Below I have categorized some of the quotes that I have come across.

Ed Seykota’s Trading Style

  • My style is basically trend following, with some special pattern recognition and money management
    algorithms.
  • In order of importance to me are: (1) the long-term trend, (2) the current chart pattern, and (3) picking a good spot to buy or sell. Those are the three primary components of my trading. Way down in very distant fourth place are my fundamental ideas and, quite likely, on balance, they have cost me money.
  • I consider trend following to be a subset of charting. Charting is a little like surfing. You don’t have to know a
    lot about the physics of tides, resonance, and fluid dynamics in order to catch a good wave. You just have to be able to sense when it’s happening and then have the drive to act at the right time.
  • Common patterns transcend individual market behavior (my note: i.e. price patterns are similar across different markets).

Overall Rules

  • Trade with the long-term trend.
  • Cut your losses.
  • Let your profits ride.
  • Bet as much as you can handle and no more.

Buying on Breakouts (more…)

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