Archives of “extrapolation” tag

rss

Two Mistakes frequently made by Stock Traders

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

The first big mistake is the flawed logic of extrapolation. Many traders and investors assume that a trend will remain in force until an “event” comes along to change it. But market trends are not like billiard balls on a pool table. This false assumption will put you on the wrong side of the market more times than not, especially at major turning points.

The second big mistake is to suppose that news events drive market trends. In fact, the opposite is true: economic, political and social events lag market trends.

The Stock Market Is An "Attractive Nuisance" And Should Be Closed

  
Analysis, Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

The Stock Market Is An “Attractive Nuisance” And Should Be Closed

The dark pool of parasitic scum known as the stock market is an “attractive nuisance” that should be shut down.

In tort law, an attractive nuisance is any potentially hazardous object or condition that is likely to attract the naive and unwary, i.e. children.

A classic example is an abandoned swimming pool half-filled with fetid water.

Since many stock market investors are demonstrably naive about the risks and unwary of the dangers posed by the stock market (the proof of this is that they remain invested in the market), it is but a slight extrapolation of the attractive nuisance doctrine to declare the stock market is clearly an “attractive nuisance” and should be closed immediately.

Is this really a legal stretch? Consider the conditions that characterize an attractive nuisance. I have edited these to pertain to the stock market and investors:

1. The market is one in which the Powers That Be (the exchanges, the Central State, the central bank, et al., the effective “owners” of the stock market) know or have reason to know that brainwashed or ill-informed investors are likely to risk their money in.

2. The market is one of which the Powers That Be know or have reason to know (and fully realize or should realize) will involve an unreasonable risk of financial loss or ruin to such investors.

3. The investors, because of their consumption of officially sanctioned propaganda and misrepresentation of market risk and return, do not discover or realize the risk involved in placing money in the stock market. (more…)

7 Ways to Become an Unsuccessful Trader

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

If you’d prefer to become an unsuccessful trader, you can start by making the following common trading mistakes.

-The first big mistake is the flawed logic of extrapolation. Many traders and investors assume that a trend will remain in force until an “event” comes along to change it. But market trends are not like billiard balls on a pool table. This false assumption will put you on the wrong side of the market more times than not, especially at major turning points.

-The second big mistake is to suppose that news events drive market trends. In fact, the opposite is true: economic, political and social events lag market trends.

-One common mistake is to buy puts or calls that are way “out of the money,” with no other transactions to compliment them. Unless your timing is absolutely perfect — and who has perfect timing? — your chance of success is low. It’s like buying a lottery ticket.

-Another common mistake is to buy options with too little time left to expiration. With less than one month to expiration, the time decay begins to accelerate and the chances of success diminish.

-In the middle of a corrective pattern, it’s common to run out of patience while waiting for confirmation of a trend change. You have to give corrective patterns time to unfold before you jump in. This requires discipline, and a solid understanding of the many ways corrective patterns can unfold.

-Too many traders think Elliott wave is a trading system that tells you exactly where to enter and exit a particular market. That’s the biggest misconception. The reality is that it’s an analytical and forecasting tool, which helps you develop and use your own trading system, based on your own personal risk tolerance.

-Traders tend to over-rely on momentum indicators such as RSI, Stochastics and MACD to precisely spot turning points. But to paraphrase Mark Twain, markets can stay overbought or oversold a lot longer than either you or I can remain solvent.

Go to top