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EU sues Goldman over volcanic ash

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso announced late Sunday that the European Union has filed suit against investment banking giant Goldman Sachs for the fallout of ash from Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull volcano.  The volcanic ash, which has blanketed the skies over most of Europe for the last four days, has grounded almost all European air traffic, stranding travelers and disrupting economic activity throughout the European Union.

In a statement delivered in Romansh, the official EU language of the month, Barroso said, “We have uncovered evidence that this so-called ‘natural disaster’, which is costing the EU hundreds of millions of Euros, is in fact an Act of Goldman, and we intend to hold the Zionist-American cabal in charge of the firm accountable.”  “First the profligate Americans drag the world into a near-depression and now they crap all this ash on us.  Who the hell do they think they are?” added Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou from Athens, where he was chairing a conference on Greek sovereign debt entitled, “How American Speculators Forced Us to Cook the Books, Lie to Our European Partners, and Pretend We Don’t Need A Massive Bailout”.

The EU complaint alleges that Goldman operated a proprietary wind-blowing strategy to direct the volcano’s ash into Europe’s stratosphere.  Goldman is accused of profiting from the fallout by buying complex Flight Cancellation Swaps that are netting Goldman millions of dollars every time another European flight is cancelled.  The complaint cites a smoking gun email from Francois Tubbey, a 16-year old Goldman vice president, to an unidentified woman at “i@&$*[email protected]” stating, “That’s right, baby, Fat Franky’s in charge of the weather.”

Several European banks who are counterparties to the FCS’s are alleged to be suffering billions in losses with no end in sight, apparently because they continue to sell the FCS’s to Goldman.  Reached for comment, the Chairman of Royal Bank of Scotland, one of the counterparty banks, said, “Yes, we know almost all European flights are cancelled, but our advisor is Goldman Sachs, and they keep urging us to sell these FCS’s to them, so we do.  We intend to hold them fully responsible.”

Goldman issued a statement saying that it intends to “vigorously defend itself,” adding that the EU’s charges are “unfounded in meteorology and probably also in fact.”

In a related development, the InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change said today it is considering investigating Goldman’s role in climate change.  “We’re going to get the documents, proceed cautiously, and determine precisely when Goldman started melting the Polar icecaps.” [via email]

Bankers never learn

The reason for the Recession — simplified.

A naked and drunken woman boards a cab in London one night.

The Gujju driver keeps staring and does not start the cab.

Woman : Haven’t you ever seen a naked woman before ???

Gujju Driver : I am not staring at you lady ….. just wondering where you kept money to pay !!

The Moral : That is what most of the American and European banks failed to do. (i.e.) Assessing repayment capacity before taking exposure !!!

Long live Gujju enterprise…

Dangers detailed for banks in Europe

Despite recent improvements in the health of European banks, they remain vulnerable to a daunting array of hazards that are expected to produce another round of sizable write-offs in the next couple of years, the European Central Bank said.

Its report cataloged in detail the problems facing the region’s financial institutions.

The challenges for banks in the 16-nation euro zone include exposure to a weakening commercial real estate market, hundreds of billions of euros in bad debts, economic problems in East European countries, and a potential collision between the banks’ own substantial refinancing needs and government demand for additional loans, the central bank said.

In its twice-yearly review of risks facing the nations that use the euro currency, the central bank expressed particular concern about banks’ need to refinance long-term debt of an estimated 800 billion euros, or $984 billion, by the end of 2012.

European banks will need to set aside an estimated 123 billion euros in 2010 for bad loans, and an additional 105 billion euros in 2011, the report said. That would be in addition to the 238 billion euros they set aside from 2007 to 2009.

European Bank Stress Test – Full List of Banks to be Examined

Details of what the much talked about stress test of European banks will examine is out. A total of 91 European banks will be involved in the stress tests (full list of banks being tested are shown below). The test which is being overseen by the Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) states:

The objective of the extended stress test exercise is to assess the overall resilience of the EU banking sector and the banks’ ability to absorb further possible shocks on credit and market risks, including sovereign risks, and to assess the current dependence on public support measures.

The exercise is being conducted on a bank-by-bank basis using commonly agreed macro-economic scenarios (baseline and adverse) for 2010 and 2011, developed in close cooperation with the ECB and the European Commission.

The macro-economic scenarios include a set of key macro-economic variables (e.g. the evolution of GDP, of unemployment and of the consumer price index), differentiated for EU Member States, the rest of the EEA countries and the US. The exercise also envisages adverse conditions in financial markets and a shock on interest rates to capture an increase in risk premia linked to a deterioration in the EU government bond markets.

On aggregate, the adverse scenario assumes a 3 percentage point deviation of GDP for the EU compared to the European Commission’s forecasts over the two-year time horizon. The sovereign risk shock in the EU represents a deterioration of market conditions as compared to the situation observed in early May 2010.

The scope of the stress testing exercise has been extended to include not only the major EU cross-border banking groups but also key domestic credit institutions in Europe. {…}

The results of the stress test will be disclosed, both on an aggregated and on a bank-by-bank basis, on 23 July 2010.

It should be noted that a stress testing exercise does not provide forecasts of expected outcomes, but rather a what-if analysis aimed at supporting the supervisory assessment of the adequacy of capital of European banks. {…}

We all remember the stress test that was applied to American financial institutions in early 2009. It took months for the Federal Reserve to decide how to conduct the testing and then how to release the results so as not to upset anyone. Will the Europeans tell it like it is, or will they follow Tim Geithner’s past action of ‘just don’t say much’ ?

The full list of European banks that will undergo stress testing:

 

Austria

  • ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
  • RAIFFEISEN ZENTRALBANK OESTERRREICH AG (RZB)

Belgium

  • KBC GROUP
  • DEXIA

Cyprus

  • MARFIN POPULAR BANK PUBLIC CO LTD
  • BANK OF CYPRUS PUBLIC CO LTD

Denmark

  • DANSKE BANK
  • JYSKE BANK A/S
  • SYDBANK A/S

Finland

  • OP-POHJOLA GROUP

France

  • BNP PARIBAS
  • CREDIT AGRICOLE
  • BPCE
  • SOCIETE GENERALE

Germany

  • DEUTSCHE BANK AG
  • COMMERZBANK AG
  • HYPO REAL ESTATE HOLDING AG
  • LANDESBANK BADEN-WÜRTTEMBERG
  • BAYERISCHE LANDESBANK
  • DZ BANK AG DT. ZENTRAL-GENOSSENSCHAFTSBANK
  • NORDDEUTSCHE LANDESBANK -GZ-
  • DEUTSCHE POSTBANK AG
  • WESTLB AG
  • HSH NORDBANK AG
  • LANDESBANK HESSEN-THÜRINGEN GZ
  • LANDESBANK BERLIN AG
  • DEKABANK DEUTSCHE GIROZENTRALE
  • WGZ BANK AG WESTDT. GENO. ZENTRALBK

Greece

  • NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE
  • EFG EUROBANK ERGASIAS S.A.
  • ALPHA BANK
  • PIRAEUS BANK GROUP
  • AGRICULTURAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. (ATEbank)
  • TT HELLENIC POSTBANK S.A.

Hungary

  • OTP BANK NYRT.
  • JELZÁLOGBANK NYILVÁNOSAN M?KÖD? RT.

Ireland

  • BANK OF IRELAND
  • ALLIED IRISH BANKS PLC

Italy

  • UNICREDIT
  • INTESA SANPAOLO
  • MONTE DEI PASCHI DI SIENA
  • BANCO POPOLARE – S.C.
  • UNIONE DI BANCHE ITALIANE SCPA (UBI BANCA)

Luxembourg

  • BANQUE ET CAISSE D’EPARGNE DE L’ETAT
  • BANQUE RAIFFEISEN

Malta

  • BANK OF VALLETTA (BOV)

?Netherlands

  • ING Bank
  • RABOBANK GROUP
  • ABN/ FORTIS BANK NEDERLAND (HOLDING) N.V
  • SNS BANK

Poland

  • POWSZECHNA KASA OSZCZ?DNO?CI BANK POLSKI S.A. (PKO BANK POLSKI)

Portugal

  • CAIXA GERAL DE DEPÓSITOS
  • BANCO COMERCIAL PORTUGUÊS BANCO COMERCIAL PORTUGUÊSS.A. (BCP OR MILLENNIUM BCP)
  • ESPÍRITO SANTO FINANCIAL GROUP S.A. (ESFG)
  • BANCO BPI

Slovenia

  • NOVA LJUBLJANSKA BANKA (NLB)

Spain

  • BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
  • BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA S.A. (BBVA)
  • JUPITER –  CAJA DE AHORROS Y MONTE DE PIEDAD DE MADRID (CAJA MADRID); CAJA DE AHORROS DE VALENCIA, CASTELLÓN Y ALICANTE (BANCAJA); CAIXA DÉSTALVIS LAIETANA; CAJA INSULAR DE AHORROS DE CANARIAS; CAJA DE AHORROS Y MONTE DE PIEDAD DE AVILA; CAJA DE AHORROS Y MONTE DE PIEDAD DE SEGOVIA; CAJA DE AHORROS DE LA RIOJA.
  • CAIXA-  CAJA DE AHORROS Y PENSIONES DE BARCELONA (LA CAIXA); CAIXA DÉSTALVIS DE GIRONA.
  • CAM –  CAJA DE AHORROS DEL MEDITERRÁNEO (CAM); CAJA DE AHORROS DE ASTURIAS; CAJA DE AHORROS DE SANTANDER Y CANTABRIA; CAJA DE AHORROSY MONTE DE PIEDAD DE EXTREMADURA.
  • BANCO POPULAR ESPAÑOL, S.A.
  • BANCO DE SABADELL, S.A.
  • DIADA –  CAIXA DÉSTALVIS DE CATALUNYA; CAIXA DÉSTALVIS DE TARRAGONA: CAIXA DÉSTALVIS DE MANRESA.
  • BREOGAN – CAJA DE AHORROS DE GALICIA; CAIXA DE AFORROS DE VIGO, OURENSE E PONTEVEDRA (CAIXANOVA).
  • MARE NOSTRUM –  CAJA DE AHORROS DE MURCIA; CAIXA DÉSTALVIS DEL PENEDES; CAJA DE AHORROS Y MONTE DE PIEDAD DE LAS BALEARES (SA NOSTRA); CAJA GENERAL DE AHORROS DE GRANADA.
  • BANKINTER, S.A.
  • ESPIGA – CAJA DE AHORROS DE SALAMANCA Y SORIA (CAJA DUERO); CAJA DE ESPAÑA DEINVERSIONES CAJA DE AHORROS Y MONTE DE PIEDAD (CAJA ESPAÑA).
  • BANCA CIVICA, S.A.
  • CAJA DE AHORROS Y M.P. DE ZARAGOZA, ARAGON Y RIOJA
  • ANTEQUERA Y JAEN (UNICAJA)
  • BANCO PASTOR, S.A.
  • CAJA SOL –  MONTE DE PIEDAD Y CAJA DE AHORROS SAN FERNANDO DE HUELVA, JEREZ Y SEVILLA (CAJA SOL); CAJA DE AHORRO PROVINCIAL DE GUADALAJARA.
  • BILBAO BIZKAIA KUTXA,AURREZKI KUTXA ETA BAHITETXEA
  • UNNIM – CAIXA DÉSTALVIS DE SABADELL; CAIXA DÉSTALVIS DE TERRASSA; CAIXA DÉSTALVIS COMARCAL DE MANLLEU.
  • CAJA DE AHORROS Y M.P. DE GIPUZKOA Y SAN SEBASTIAN
  • CAI –  CAJA DE AHORROS Y MONTE DE PIEDAD DEL CÍRCULO CATÓLICO DE OBREOS DEBURGOS (CAJA CÍRCULO); MONTE DE PIEDAD Y CAJA GENERAL DE AHORROS DE BADAJOZ; CAJA DE AHORROS DE LA INMACULADA DE ARAGÓN.
  • CAJA DE AHORROS Y M.P. DE CORDOBA
  • BANCA MARCH, S.A.
  • BANCO GUIPUZCOANO, S.A.
  • CAJA DE AHORROS DE VITORIA Y ALAVA
  • CAJA DE AHORROS Y M.P. DE ONTINYENT
  • COLONYA – CAIXA D’ESTALVIS DE POLLENSA

Sweden

  • NORDEA BANK
  • SKANDINAVISKA ENSKILDA BANKEN AB (SEB)
  • SVENSKA HANDELSBANKEN
  • SWEDBANK

?United Kingdom

  • ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND (RBS)
  • HSBC HOLDINGS PLC
  • BARCLAYS
  • LLOYDS BANKING GROUP

With $1 Trillion In Loans, The ECB Is The Biggest Guarantor Of European Banks

Today’s lower than expected interest in the 3-month LTRO operation was supposed to indicate a sign of stability for European banks. Nothing could be further from the truth. In an article which recaps a variety of data points presented here previously, the FT summarizes that European banks continue to exist solely due to a record and unprecedented $1 trillion in emergency loans issued to Europe’s commercial banks. In turn, almost 40% of this liquidity is then recycled, and stored back with the ECB, as the very same banks have no trust whatsoever in any of their peers. In short: no matter what the Stress Tests indicate, the European financial system is now in a worse condition than ever in history, including the days just after Lehman.

From the FT:

The ECB is currently lending close to €900bn ($1,098bn, £728bn) to eurozone commercial banks, jumping to near-record levels since the creation of the central bank 11 years ago. This now matches cross-border lending between commercial banks in the 16-nation currency zone, according to JPMorgan.

Although lending between domestic banks represents the lion’s share of the estimated €6,300bn market, the ECB has become essential as a lifeline to the weaker of the 3,000 banks in the eurozone.

At least some people still have the guts to laugh in the face of JCT’s propaganda:

 
 

Paul Griffiths, global head of fixed income at Aberdeen Asset Managers, says: “Without financial support many banks would struggle. It would take a brave man to turn the ECB taps off.”

Summarizing just how critical the ECB’s role is in the proper functioning of European banks:

 
 

Since Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008, lending by the ECB to eurozone banks has risen sharply as it has offered unlimited loans and extended its liquidity operations. This has seen the sum it lends to the banks rise from about €500bn before the Lehman crisis to today’s near record levels.

As well as the offer of unlimited loans, the ECB has bought €55bn in eurozone government bonds and €60.2bn in eurozone covered bonds in an effort to revive the eurozone economy and boost sentiment.

However, fear still stalks the markets. Interbank dealers say credit blocks remain on Spanish and Greek banks because they are seen as too risky to lend to.

The fear of lending to other banks because they may fail to repay loans is also reflected in the large sums of cash being deposited at the ECB overnight.

In spite of offering only 0.25 per cent for deposits, commercial banks parked €305bn at the ECB on Monday night because they prefer the safety of placing their money with the central bank rather than lending to other banks at higher rates. Before the Lehman crisis, overnight deposits at the ECB were typically less than €10bn.

And a pretty chart showing just how contrary to fact are all European claims that all shall be well.

At this point it is worth reminding that the Fed is a paragon of transparency and openness when compared to the infinitely more nebulous ECB. One thing that can be assumed with certainty for both central banks, however, is that this $1 trillion+ in cash lent out is backstopped by some of the most toxic paper in existence. The collateral received in exchange for the cash, which in turn forms the asset side of the ECB’s balance sheet, is also the guarantor of the money in circulation in the eurozone, and is the implicit baker of the value of the Euro. Next time you wonder why more and more people are calling for EURCHF parity, keep in mind that almost a hundred billion in Greek bonds is just part of the worthless recourse backing that piece of paper in your transatlantic wallet.

Links for you

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  • Could we have less talk about gloom and about doom in 2010? (Money)

     Most people stink at market timing. Investors pull money out of stock funds (MarketWatch)

  • The Housing Crisis and Wall Street Shame (Robert Reich)

  • Are we coming out of recession? (Market Talk)

  • Get ready for half a recovery (New York Times)


  • One in six companies on the Standard & Poor’s 500 index may raise its next dividend payment (Bloomberg)
  • I’m always suspicious about the market [but that doesn’t mean I don’t find opportunities] (Jutia)

  • Dangers of an overheated China (New York Times)

  • Brazil GDP to Grow 6.1% in 2010 (Bloomberg)

  • 15 european banks now have assets larger than their domestic economies (Fund My Mutual Fund)

  • Correlation between the world’s tallest buildings and economic downturns (AlphaDinar)

  • Need a reminder? (Memorari)

  • RIP Mark Pittman (Bloomberg)

  • Life of a blogger (Slope Of Hope)

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