Archives of “Emergency management” tag

rss

Where Are You Placing Your Bet?

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Some love risk. Others avoid it till the grave. Whether you take it head on or run in the other direction it will always catch you. Risk cannot be avoided so you better know how to put the odds in your favor. Consider the following:

You want to see life as a continuum running on a loop back and forth from risk to reward. If you want a big reward, take a big risk. If you want an average reward and an average life, take an average risk. Easier said than done, however, if you want the big reward. Our system is notorious for playing Whac-A-Mole with achievers.

From an early age, people are conditioned by families, schools, and virtually every other shaping force in society to avoid risk. To take risks is inadvisable; to play it safe is the message. Risk can only be bad. However, winners understand risk is highly productive, and not something to avoid. Taking calculated risks is different from acting rashly. Playing it safe is the true danger. Far more often than you might realize, the real risk in life turns out to be the refusal to take a risk.2 If life is a game of risk, then to one degree or another, being comfortable with assessing odds is the only option for a fulfilling life.

Consider trading from a “startup” business perspective. Every business is ultimately involved in assessing risk. Putting capital to work to make it grow is the goal. In that sense, all business is the same. The right decisions lead to success, and wrong ones lead to insolvency. Blunt, but true. There are ways to go in the right direction, however. Ask yourself these questions:

  • What is the market opportunity in the market niche?
  • What is your solution to the market need?
  • How big is the opportunity?
  • How do you make money?
  • How do you reach the market and sell?
  • What is the competition?
  • How are you better?
  • How will you execute and manage your business?
  • What are your risks?
  • Why will you succeed? (more…)

Sviokla & Cohen, The Self-Made Billionaire Effect- Book Review

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

self

Becoming a millionaire, even a multimillionaire is not all that extraordinary, becoming a billionaire is. What do self-made billionaires (and there are about 800 of them in the world) have that the rest of us don’t? John Sviokla and Mitch Cohen tackle this question in The Self-Made Billionaire Effect: How Extreme Producers Create Massive Value (Portfolio / Penguin, 2014).

These billionaires (or Producers, as the authors call them) may be wired differently. They certainly think differently. They balance judgment and imaginative vision, a daunting mental task since “for most people, judgment and imagination sit on opposite ends of a mental spectrum. The more skilled one is at seeing things as they are (judgment) the harder it is to see things as they might be (imagination).“ (p. 4) Not only do they “revel in bringing clashing elements together,” “they seamlessly hold on to multiple ideas, multiple perspectives, and multiple scales.” (pp. 16, 15)

Since they “cannot predict the exact time to make an investment, … they are willing to operate simultaneously at multiple speeds and time frames. They accept that timing is not under their control, and so they work fast, slow, super slow, or in all these modes at the same time. They urgently prepare to seize an opportunity but patiently wait for that opportunity to fully emerge.” (p. 19)

(more…)

Rules for handling risk are..

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #

Image result for RISK· Gather as much information as possible before entering any risk.
· Get a toe wet first, if possible, before the final plunge.
· Risks alone are more valuable than when shoaled with others.
· During the peak moments of risk constantly evaluate and reevaluate.
· Always have a backup plan.
· Always have an exit.
· When in doubt, be bold.

Whatever your brand of risk, these guidelines will keep you afloat to take another, and another, through the discovery of self.

A Few Things About Risk

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #

People have an amazing ability to discount risks that threaten their livelihood. That’s dangerous because people who should be the most experienced experts in a field may be the least able to objectively assess their industry.

Risk has a lot to do with culture. Europeans and Canadians are generally wary of the stock market. For Americans, it’s a pastime. The French prefer raw milk. Americans are warned against it. Canadians are banned from it. Europeans are terrified of nuclear exposure. Americans couldn’t care less. Walk through an international airport and you’ll see one person wearing a face mask to prevent the spread of illness and another letting their kid crawl on the floor. Everyone wants to believe they’re thinking objectively, but most of the time you’re just reflecting the cultural norms of where you were born.

Success is an underrated risk. Jason Zweig once wrote: “Being right is the enemy of staying right — partly because it makes you overconfident, even more importantly because it leads you to forget the way the world works.”

Risk’s greatest fuels are debt, overconfidence, impatience, a lack of options, and government subsidies. 

Its greatest enemies are humility, room for error, and government subsidies.

Nothing in the world can give a damn less than risk. Risk doesn’t care about your political views or your morals. It doesn’t care what your view of the market is, or what you were taught in school. It’s an indiscriminate assassin and a master at humbling ideologies.

(more…)

5 Quotes From Market Wizard Steve Clark

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #

I was so inexperienced that I didn’t have the fear – the fear that cripples people who have been in the business too long. I have seen that so many times. Very few people maintain their ability to take risk throughout their career. Most don’t Most can’t. They have had too many bad things happen to them, too many fat tails, and it damages people – Steve Clark

What Clark is talking about here sounds like the opposite of beginner’s luck. I have seen a number of examples of this in the business world. People who work their whole lives to build something by taking risks suddenly don’t want to take risks anymore. They realize at some point that they now have things that they are no longer willing to lose. They have too much experience watching others fail.

It was a terrible shock to me ego. I began to doubt my ability. It was a very depressing time. It lasted for several months. I’ve seen this happen to many traders, and I have gone through it sever times myself. When you find that you can’t make any money, smaller and smaller losses take on greater and greater emotional significance, and you lose all perspective. – Steve Clark

(more…)

RISKING

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Trading is all about risk Control !The Following excerpt is from one of my favorite audiotapes ,’Risking ‘by David Viscount.I keep this on my desk to remind me each day to keep “Risking .”Only a person who risks is truly free

To laugh is to risk appearing the fool. To weep is to risk appearing sentimental. To reach for another is to risk involvement. To expose your feelings is to risk exposing your true self. To place your ideas, your dreams before a crowd is to risk their loss. To love is to risk not being loved in return. To live is to risk dying. To believe is to risk despair. To try is to risk failure. But risks must be taken, because the greatest hazard in life is to risk nothing. The person who risks nothing does nothing, has nothing, is nothing. They may avoid suffering an d sorrow, but they cannot learn, feel, change, grow, love, live. Chained by their attitudes they are slaves; they have forfeited their freedom. Only a person who risks is free.

The “Greek Issue”-Fascinating flowchart

  
Analysis, Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

It is wrong to think that contagion stems only from Grexit. An excessive compromise with Greece could result in moral hazard, particularly in relation to structural reforms. This could undermine the medium-term stability of the euro area. The tail risk is that Greek politicians try to leverage too much the fear of Grexit “contagion risk”. We complete our analysis by looking at the vulnerability of other euro peripherals and the ex-post tools to limit contagion.

7 Points To Follow If You Are A Trader

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #
  1.  Expect long hours of study and research. Assume you will lose money in the beginning.
  2. A person interested in becoming a trader must have the mindset of an entrepreneur. Risk, irregular income, and spending money to make money, are all part of the business.
  3. You must trade like a business person and not a gambler. Gamblers need not apply; go to Vegas instead.
  4. Risk management will be your priority. Too much risk exposure will eventually lead you to be an unemployed trader with no trading capital.
  5. You are your own human resource department. Be prepared to manage your own greed and fear.
  6. To keep your morale up, you must keep all your losses small, and allow your winning trades to be as large as possible.
  7. Jesse Livermore’s quote for potential candidates: “The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.”

Risk, Reward and Uncertainty

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

“From an early age, we are all conditioned by our families, our schools, and virtually every other shaping force in our society to avoid risk. To take risks is inadvisable; to play it safe is the counsel we are accustomed both to receiving and to passing on. In the conventional wisdom, risk is asymmetrical: it has only one side, the bad side. In my experience—and all I presume to offer you today is observations drawn on my own experience, which is hardly the wisdom of the ages—in my experience, this conventional view of risk is shortsighted and often simply mistaken. My first observation is that successful people understand that risk, properly conceived, is often highly productive rather than something to avoid. They appreciate that risk is an advantage to be used rather than a pitfall to be skirted. Such people understand that taking calculated risks is quite different from being rash. This view of risk is not only unorthodox, it is paradoxical—the first of several paradoxes which I’m going to present to you today. This one might be encapsulated as follows: Playing it safe is dangerous. Far more often than you would realize, the real risk in life turns out to be the refusal to take a risk.”

Life is fraught with risk. There is no getting away from it. However we try to control the direction of our lives, there are times when we fail. Therefore, we might as well accept that life is a game of chance. If life is a game of chance, to one degree or another, we must be comfortable with assessing odds in the face of risk.

Go to top