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OECD trims 2020 global growth forecast to 2.9% from 3.0% in September

  
Analysis, Economy
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OECD with an updated forecast on the global economic outlook

Global
  • 2019 global GDP growth at 2.9% (unchanged)
  • 2020 global GDP growth at 2.9% (previously 3.0%)
  • 2019 US GDP growth at 2.3% (previously 2.4%)
  • 2020 US GDP growth at 2.0% (unchanged)
  • 2019 China GDP growth at 6.2% (previously 6.1%)
  • 2020 China GDP growth at 5.7% (unchanged)
  • 2019 Eurozone GDP growth at 1.2% (previously 1.1%)
  • 2020 Eurozone GDP growth at 1.1% (previously 1.0%)
  • 2019 UK GDP growth at 1.2% (previously 1.0%)
  • 2020 UK GDP growth at 1.0% (previously 0.9%)
  • 2019 Japan GDP growth at 1.0% (unchanged)
  • 2020 Japan GDP growth at 0.6% (unchanged)
The September forecasts can be found here. If anything, it shows that the dark clouds surrounding the global economy are starting to settle for a bit – not getting significantly worse at the very least.
However, any significant rebound is still far away and needs more convincing so let’s see how sentiment changes if we do or do not get a “Phase One” trade deal.

OECD sees global economy slipping towards weakest growth in a decade

  
Analysis, Economy
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OECD cuts forecasts to the global economy, warns of entrenched uncertainty

Global
  • 2019 global GDP growth at 2.9% (previously 3.2%)
  • 2020 global GDP growth at 3.0% (previously 3.4%)
  • 2019 US GDP growth at 2.4% (previously 2.8%)
  • 2020 US GDP growth at 2.0% (previously 2.3%)
  • 2019 China GDP growth at 6.1% (previously 6.2%)
  • 2020 China GDP growth at 5.7% (previously 6.0%)
  • 2019 Eurozone GDP growth at 1.1% (previously 1.2%)
  • 2020 Eurozone GDP growth at 1.0% (previously 1.4%)
  • 2019 Japan GDP growth at 1.0% (previously 0.7%)
  • 2020 Japan GDP growth at 0.6% (unchanged)
  • 2019 UK GDP growth at 1.0% (previously 1.2%)
  • 2020 UK GDP growth at 0.9% (previously 1.0%)
Those are quite the amount of downgrades relative to its May forecast.
OECD says that trade tensions are the main cause for a more fragile and uncertain outlook to the global economy. Noting that intensifying trade conflicts and governments not doing enough to prevent damage will hurt global growth momentum going into next year.
The 2.9% forecast for global growth this year is the weakest projection since the financial crisis, almost a decade ago.
OECD

Sir John Templeton 16 Rules For Investment Success

  
  Education
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Interesting set of rules from legendary investor John Templeton:

1. Invest for maximum total real return
2. Invest — Don’t trade or speculate
3. Remain flexible and open minded about types of investment
4. Buy Low
5. When buying stocks, search for bargains among quality stocks.
6. Buy value, not market trends or the economic outlook
7. Diversify. In stocks and bonds, as in much else, there is safety in numbers
8. Do your homework or hire wise experts to help you
9. Aggressively monitor your investments
10. Don’t Panic
11. Learn from your mistakes
12. Begin with a Prayer
13. Outperforming the market is a difficult task
14. An investor who has all the answers doesn’t even understand all the questions
15. There’s no free lunch
16. Do not be fearful or negative too often

 Complete explanation after the jump (more…)

On The Menu This Afternoon

  
  Education
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All times GMT

1330  US Oct CPI expected 0.1% m/m, from +0.6%, ex food and energy exp +0.1%m/m unchanged

US Nov Empire state survey  expected -8.0 from -6.2

US initial claims (wk Nov 10) exp 375k from 355k

Canadian Sept Mfg sales exp=0.3%m/m down from +1.5%

1400  US Fed’s Lacker speaks on economic outlook

1500  US Nov Philly Fed Survey exp 2.0 from 5.7

1540  US Fed Evans speaking ati 15th annual banking conference

1820  US Chairman Bernanke speaks on Housing and mortgage markets

1945  US Fed’s Fisher speaks at State of West symposium

2130  US Fed’s Plosser  speaks at CATO Institute

2330 US Fed’s Dudley speaks at NY clearing house

Goldman Capitulates: Lowers GDP Forecast, Increases Unemployment And Inflation Outlook, Sees Imminent QE "Lite"

  
  Education
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It’s official: the double dip is here. Goldman’s Jan Hatzius just lowered his GDP forecast for 2011 from 2.5% to 1.9% (kiss goodbye all those 93 EPS estimates on the S&P), increased his unemployment forecast from 9.8% to 10.0%, boosted his inflation expectation from 0.4% to 1.0%, and said that QE lite is now on the table, as he expects that “the FOMC to announce that they will reinvest the paydown of mortgage-backed securities in the bond market at next Tuesday’s meeting.” Look for all other sell-side “strategists” (here’s looking at you Neil Dutta) to lower their economic outlook in kind, and the 2011 S&P consensus to decline accordingly.

From Goldman Sachs:

 
 

Over the past two to three months, the US economic recovery has lost a considerable amount of its momentum.   As a result, our forecast of a significant slowing in US growth in the second half of 2010—widely regarded as implausible just three months ago—is now increasingly accepted as the baseline.  As the data disappointments intensified in early July, we indicated that we would consider revisions to our economic outlook.  With the annual revisions to real GDP now behind us, we are making the following changes: (more…)

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