OECD trims 2020 global growth forecast to 2.9% from 3.0% in September

OECD with an updated forecast on the global economic outlook

Global
  • 2019 global GDP growth at 2.9% (unchanged)
  • 2020 global GDP growth at 2.9% (previously 3.0%)
  • 2019 US GDP growth at 2.3% (previously 2.4%)
  • 2020 US GDP growth at 2.0% (unchanged)
  • 2019 China GDP growth at 6.2% (previously 6.1%)
  • 2020 China GDP growth at 5.7% (unchanged)
  • 2019 Eurozone GDP growth at 1.2% (previously 1.1%)
  • 2020 Eurozone GDP growth at 1.1% (previously 1.0%)
  • 2019 UK GDP growth at 1.2% (previously 1.0%)
  • 2020 UK GDP growth at 1.0% (previously 0.9%)
  • 2019 Japan GDP growth at 1.0% (unchanged)
  • 2020 Japan GDP growth at 0.6% (unchanged)
The September forecasts can be found here. If anything, it shows that the dark clouds surrounding the global economy are starting to settle for a bit – not getting significantly worse at the very least.
However, any significant rebound is still far away and needs more convincing so let’s see how sentiment changes if we do or do not get a “Phase One” trade deal.

OECD sees global economy slipping towards weakest growth in a decade

OECD cuts forecasts to the global economy, warns of entrenched uncertainty

Global
  • 2019 global GDP growth at 2.9% (previously 3.2%)
  • 2020 global GDP growth at 3.0% (previously 3.4%)
  • 2019 US GDP growth at 2.4% (previously 2.8%)
  • 2020 US GDP growth at 2.0% (previously 2.3%)
  • 2019 China GDP growth at 6.1% (previously 6.2%)
  • 2020 China GDP growth at 5.7% (previously 6.0%)
  • 2019 Eurozone GDP growth at 1.1% (previously 1.2%)
  • 2020 Eurozone GDP growth at 1.0% (previously 1.4%)
  • 2019 Japan GDP growth at 1.0% (previously 0.7%)
  • 2020 Japan GDP growth at 0.6% (unchanged)
  • 2019 UK GDP growth at 1.0% (previously 1.2%)
  • 2020 UK GDP growth at 0.9% (previously 1.0%)
Those are quite the amount of downgrades relative to its May forecast.
OECD says that trade tensions are the main cause for a more fragile and uncertain outlook to the global economy. Noting that intensifying trade conflicts and governments not doing enough to prevent damage will hurt global growth momentum going into next year.
The 2.9% forecast for global growth this year is the weakest projection since the financial crisis, almost a decade ago.
OECD

A little European Geography lesson

“Spain is not Greece.” Elena Salgado, Spanish Finance minister, February, 2010.

“Portugal is not Greece.” The Economist, April 2010.

“Greece is not Ireland.” George Papaconstantinou, Greek Finance minister, November, 2010.

“Spain is neither Ireland nor Portugal.” Elena Salgado, Spanish Finance minister, November 2010.

“Ireland is not in ‘Greek Territory.’”Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan. November 2010.

“Neither Spain nor Portugal is Ireland.” Angel Gurria, Secretary-general OECD, November, 2010.

“Spain is not Uganda” Spanish PM Rajoy. June, 2012.

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