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Rules for Shorting

  
  Education
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Basic Rules for Shorting Stocks

1. Shorting Momentum names is dangerous: Unless you are Superman, never step in front of a speeding locomotive

2. Valuation alone is insufficient reason to get short a stock — History teaches us that cheap stocks can get cheaper, dear stocks can get more expensive

3. ALWAYS work with a pre-determined loss – either a physical or mental stop loss — Never leave yourself open to infinite losses

4. Fundamentals tell you WHY to short something, not WHEN to short it. ALWAYS have some technical confirmation before shorting. Make a short selling wish list, then WAIT for technical confirmation. (We use Money Flow, Short Term Trend lines, Institutional Ownership, Analyst Ratings).

5. It is tough to be a contrarian: During Bull and Bear cycles, the Crowd IS the market.

You have to figure out two things:
…a) When the crowd is wrong — Doug Kass calls it “Variant Perception”
…b) When the crowd starts to get an inkling they are wrong

At the turns — not the major trends — is where contrarians clean up.

6. Look for Over-owned, Over-loved stocks: 95% Institutional ownership, All buys or Strong Buys (no sells), and 700% gains over the past few years are reasons to put names on your short selling wish list.  (That is how my partner Kevin Lane found and shorted Enron and Tyco back in the 1990s).

7. Beware the “Crowded Short“– they tend to become targets of the squeeze!

8. You can use Options to either juice your short returns, or pre-define your risk capital (options)

Rules for Shorting

  
  Education
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When it comes to shorting, many people are in the dark. It is more challenging to be short, subject to squeezes; the return max out at 100% — versus unlimited upside for longs.

Over the years, I have put together some rules for shorting. These are pretty broad and general, but they have kept me out of trouble when

Basic Rules for Shorting Stocks
1. Shorting Momentum names is dangerous: Unless you are Superman, never step in front of a speeding locomotive
2. Valuation alone is insufficient reason to get short a stock — History teaches us that cheap stocks can get cheaper, dear stocks can get more expensive
3. ALWAYS work with a pre-determined loss – either a physical or mental stop loss — Never leave yourself open to infinite losses
4. Fundamentals tell you WHY to short something, not WHEN to short it. ALWAYS have some technical confirmation before shorting. Make a short selling wish list, then WAIT for technical confirmation. (We use Money Flow, Short Term Trend lines, Institutional Ownership, Analyst Ratings).
5. It is tough to be a contrarian: During Bull and Bear cycles, the Crowd IS the market.
You have to figure out two things:
…a) When the crowd is wrong — Doug Kass calls it “Variant Perception”
…b) When the crowd starts to get an inkling they are wrong
At the turns — not the major trends — is where contrarians clean up.
6. Look for Over-owned, Over-loved stocks: 95% Institutional ownership, All buys or Strong Buys (no sells), and 700% gains over the past few years are reasons to put names on your short selling wish list.  (That is how my partner Kevin Lane found and shorted Enron and Tyco back in the 1990s).
7. Beware the “Crowded Short“– they tend to become targets of the squeeze!
8. You can use Options to either juice your short returns, or pre-define your risk capital (options)

That is my short shorting list . . .

Be Yourself

  
  Education
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Everyone in this business will tell you how to be and what to do, but the bottom line is that you’ve got to always be yourself – flaws, emotions, stupidity, and all.

There’s a saying that the stock market is an expensive place to figure how who you really are but I completely disagree. Through the many years I’ve been trading, I’ve learned much more about myself and the way I am both good and bad than I think I would have any other way. And, for that I’m so very grateful.

It is with little doubt that my experience in the markets have in turn made me into a much better human being. For example, one who thinks before acting, one that appreciates the importance of looking at situations from different points of view, one that knows that you can do everything right but still be wrong, one that understands the influence that emotion has on decision-making, one that remembers that no matter what mistakes you and I make today – tomorrow we will have another opportunity to do better. I’ve learned a great deal more, but I think you get the point.

Speaking of which, a number of people have asked me recently that if train people to “be more like me” in my mentorship group. The truth is that I try my darndest to never do that. My goal with those who I personally mentor is to help them become who they really are and, by extension, to take full advantage of their own personality and skills whatever they may be and at whatever level they currently are. The primary problem, however, is that many of us really believe the key to success is to be more like others whether it be Warren Buffett, David Einhorn, George Soros, Doug Kass, Jim Chanos, Whitney Tilson, Jim Cramer, or whoever you admire and respect. As you know, one of the fastest growing businesses on the Internet right now is to enable you in new and exciting ways to trade and invest just like others, but in my view, that will only take you so far in your personal journey. In the markets, sooner or later, you have to find your own path!

Each of us have our own skills, strengths, weaknesses and personalities and matching those with a strategy you can use and develop over time is the closest key to your future success that I can help you with.

Bottom line – don’t be like me or anyone else for that matter, but instead just be yourself. Use this time in your life to find ways to take full advantage of your own God-given talents and skills as you develop them. While it is ok and, in fact recommended, that you try to learn as much as you can from others (I know I have), at the same time you must also understand and appreciate that to true key to success is to find your own path just like every trader and investor who you so admire right now has already done.

Links for you

  
Education, LINKS
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linksforu

  • Goodbye, yellow brick road! (Doug Kass)

  • Could we have less talk about gloom and about doom in 2010? (Money)

     Most people stink at market timing. Investors pull money out of stock funds (MarketWatch)

  • The Housing Crisis and Wall Street Shame (Robert Reich)

  • Are we coming out of recession? (Market Talk)

  • Get ready for half a recovery (New York Times)


  • One in six companies on the Standard & Poor’s 500 index may raise its next dividend payment (Bloomberg)

    • I’m always suspicious about the market [but that doesn’t mean I don’t find opportunities] (Jutia)

  • Dangers of an overheated China (New York Times)

  • Brazil GDP to Grow 6.1% in 2010 (Bloomberg)

  • 15 european banks now have assets larger than their domestic economies (Fund My Mutual Fund)

  • Correlation between the world’s tallest buildings and economic downturns (AlphaDinar)

  • Need a reminder? (Memorari)

  • RIP Mark Pittman (Bloomberg)

  • Life of a blogger (Slope Of Hope)

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