Archives of “doubt” tag

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Trading rules – something new to think about

  
  Education
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NEW TRADING RULESTrading hours and decision making
You should make your overall (long or intermediate term) decisions before the trading hours and you should not change your general overview of the market during trading hours. Look at the bigger picture.

Breaks & presents
Take breaks from trading, don’t trade every day – after couple of weeks, make presents to yourself if you have been successful, go abroad or something like that. If you haven’t made profit, just take a couple of days off.

Crowd is wrong
Don’t follow the crowd, historically the public tends to be wrong. If everyone are buying, it might be good idea to start thinking of going short. If 85% of the market analysts are bullish, the market is most likely overbought, if less than 25% are bullish, it’s probably oversold.

Bets are bad
Don’t make bets. You don’t have to make trades multiple times a day or even every
day. Make trades only when you have a good reason to go into the trade. Wait for
an opportunity. If in doubt about the trade you have done, reduce the size or get out
of the trade.

Three Stages of Trading

  
  Education
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These three are mutually inclusive.  Without each working together to create the whole, managing your trading success will be difficult. Simple really but difficult to manage.  But once managed very difficult to complicate.
ACTION + RESPONSE = COMPLICATED AS IT CAUSES CONFUSION
PREPARATION + ACTION = COMPLICATED AS IT CAUSES DOUBT
PREPARATION + RESPONSE = NOT POSSIBLE WITHOUT TAKING ACTION
PREPARATION + ACTION + RESPONSE = MANAGEABLE SIMPLICITY

The obstacles of the day trader are :

  
  Education
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Fear – Fear causes the day trader to hesitate and freeze when positions should be entered and exited. Fear can also cause day traders to take losses,

 Doubt – Doubt causes great opportunity to be missed and causes a mind to be scattered and without firm direction.

Greed – Greed will cause day traders to hold onto positions too long often causing profit to turn into loss.

Hope – Hope will cloud the eyes of probability. Hope is not for day traders.

Trading Psychology

  
  Education
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ACTION + RESPONSE = COMPLICATED AS IT CAUSES CONFUSION

PREPARATION + ACTION = COMPLICATED AS IT CAUSES DOUBT

PREPARATION + RESPONSE = NOT POSSIBLE WITHOUT TAKING ACTION

PREPARATION + ACTION + RESPONSE = MANAGEABLE SIMPLICITY

These three are mutually inclusive.  Without each working together to create the whole, managing your trading success will be difficult. Simple really but difficult to manage.  But once managed very difficult to complicate.

Asymmetry

  
  Education
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symetryA general principle in trading for me is that without thorough investigation, comprehension, and experimentation leading to full acceptance, no trading rule or system can be properly executed. If one cannot completely understand and embrace the reasoning behind some method or axiom, whether internally discovered or externally given, the reflex necessary to act without further thinking or doubt is fatally compromised — the circuit between the eyes watching the screen and the finger on the trigger cannot afford even the slightest impedence. One area in my trading which I’ve been struggling over has been the disparity between the success of my entries versus the failure of my exits on profitable trades. If I had the ability to accurately anticipate and identify the origins of a move, why were my attempts in capturing and keeping the bulk of the profits so horribly inept? Why was my timing in closing trades so blatantly pathetic in comparison with their openings, to the point where I would either consistently stop-out on the lows of retracements, or conversely wind up giving back the entire move if I tried to avoid getting shaken out. (more…)

Word of Wisdom from :Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Robert Edwards and John Magee.

  
  Education
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No stock trader should be without Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Robert Edwards and John Magee.  Originally penned in 1948 and revised numerous times over the years, it is a classic.  What Edwards and Magee wrote 60+ years ago is today still the same as it ever was.

In a chapter entitled “Stick To Your Guns” we find the following words of wisdom for those traders who seek the oftentimes elusive peace of mind of the disciplined few.

It has often been pointed out that any of several different plans of operation, if followed consistently over a number of years, would have produced consistently a net gain on market operations.   The fact is, however, that many traders, having not set up a basic strategy and having no sound philosophy of what the market is doing and why, are at the mercy of every panic, boom, rumor, tip, in fact, of every wind that blows.  And since the market, by its very nature, is a meeting place of conflicting and competing forces, they are constantly torn by worry, uncertainty, and doubt.  As a result, they often drop their good holdings for a loss on a sudden dip or shakeout; they can be scared out of their short commitments by a wave of optimistic news; they spend their days picking up gossip, passing on rumors, trying to confirm their beliefs or alleviate their fears; and they spend their nights weighing and balancing, checking and questioning, in a welter of bright hopes and dark fears.

Furthermore, a trader of this type is in continual danger of getting caught in a situation that may be truly ruinous.  Since he has no fixed guides or danger points to tell him when a commitment has gone bad and it is time to get out with a small loss, he is prone to let stocks run entirely past the red light, hoping that the adverse move will soon be over, and there will be a ‘chance to get out even,’ a chance that often never comes.  And, even should stocks be moving in the right direction and showing him a profit, he is not in a much happier position, since he has no guide as to the point at which to take profits.  The result is he is likely to get out too soon and lose most of his possible gain, or overstay the market and lose part of the expected profits. (more…)

Trading Wisdom from Richard D. Wyckoff

  
  Education
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“You can learn from this how to develop independent judgment, so that you need never ask anyone’s opinion or listen to anyone’s tips, or take anyone’s advice.  You can so train your judgment that you will know just what to do and when to do it.  When you are in doubt you will do nothing.” –Richard D. Wyckoff

Wyckoff was talking here about trading.  He was talking on the subject of studying the markets to determine how they operate.  You will find developing your own trading strategy/method can be the most rewarding and challenging experience of your lifetime.  You need to be comfortable with the risk, before you are comfortable with the reward.  There is an age old saying, ‘If you can’t stand the heat, then stay out of the kitchen.’

As traders, we are exposed on a daily basis to the trading concepts of risk and reward.  Personally, my own reward to risk tolerance took some time for me to feel comfortable with it.  How much do you want to risk on each trade, and how much are you looking to make at a minimum?

Are you at its minimum profit objective going to make more money than you risk?  So if you would take two trades, and one would win and the other would hit your stop loss, would you turn a small profit on your trading?  Obviously, the goal of every trader should be the three general trading rules. (more…)

Mark Douglas : Trading in the Zone

  
  Education
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Without doubt the foremost reading, it seems, in trading circles. Douglas’ book, in my view, deserves its place at the top of a traders reading list. Whether you are trading currencies, commodities, stocks or futures this book will have something for everyone. The book tackles the psychology involved in being a successful trader. The book attempts to give the reader the tools to develop the Confidence and discipline to become and consistent winner.

I think the book is a superb read and although I cannot say right now how succesful it has been, it is one of the few books that I pick up nearly every day and read another chapter again and remind myself of some of Douglas’  inspiring ideas and thoughts.

The book ends with a great 20 trades learning excercise that is a must.

The key learnings I get from reading this book :

1)The market is random; you cannot predict it. Unless you know every individual who has a position in the market and you know their strategy for each trade it is impossible to know what will happen next.Give up trying to predict, and focus on the now moment and managing yourself , your money and your strategy.

2)The Power of Association. Douglas uses throughout the book a story about a boy and his fear of  dogs. He uses this analogy to describe how previous experiences that have given pain, or expected pain, to us will mean that our mind will do everything possible to protect itself from future pain when it is exposed to similar circumstances at some point again in the future. i.e. If you recognise a market pattern where previously you lost a trade you will be compelled to exit the trade at that point or not take that trade on; because you will not want to experience pain. Douglas again talks about the here and now and describes how we can overcome these internal obstacles.

101%….Don’t miss to Read this Book !!!!

The story of 2 monks and the power of letting go

  
  Education
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I believed you have heard of many versions of the story about 2 monks. No? Let me refresh your memory, and explain to you how it is applicable to trading.

There were two Buddhist monks walking along the bank of a river, making their way to back to the temple.

As they were walking, they came across a beautiful lady standing at the side of the river. She stopped them and asked if one of them is willing to help her across the river. The junior monk did not bulge but the senior monk without any doubt, carried her on his back and across the river. The senior monk put her down on the other side and she thanked him profusely and hurried off. The junior monk was taken aback by the gesture but kept to himself. The senior monk returned and they carried on with the journey.

As they walked, the junior monk kept brooding about the incident until it was unbearable and broke the silence, “why did you carry that woman across the river? Knowing that our religion forbid us to touch women!”

The senior monk replied peacefully, “I put her down a moment ago and you are still carrying her.” (more…)

Trading Wisdom

  
  Education
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“You are the sum total of ALL your experiences in life.

And if you discount ANY of them ~ you negate and discount your very ability to be a consistent and successful trader.

So ~ what IS your definition of CONFIDENT?

If we look up the definition of the word “confident” in Roget’s Thesaurus as you know I like to do, we can find the following:

“…believing, undoubting, unhesitating, without a doubt, convinced, satisfied, assured, unafraid, courageous, unscarred, undaunted, daring, venturesome…”

Is that you?  Is that your definition?  Or, is this your definition:

“…hopeful, expecting, try to reassure, hold out hope, make promise to…”

Or do you know?  Right now, if someone were to ask you what your definition of confidence is ~ what would you say?  Right off the top of your head? (more…)

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