Archives of “distrust” tag

rss

US Media Hits Record High, As CNBC Viewership Drops To Multi-Year Low

  
Analysis, Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

In today’s “less than surprising data point” category, the clear winner is Gallup’s analysis of people’s ever increasing distrust in the mass media. From 46% in 1998, the percentage of people who indicate they have “not very much/none at all” trust in mass media has grown to a stunning 57% currently. This is an all time record, as the general public perception toward the MSM has flipped over the past decade. Is it becoming increasingly more difficult to lie to the average American? In this time of unprecedented economic upheaval, where the political regime depends on just how far any given administration’s lies can penetrate amongst the broader population, this may well become the most critical factor in determining policy for the future. And with ever increasing alternatives of non-traditional media, could the legacy ad-supported media model, which by definition is one which espouses the status quo, be doomed precisely by the slow but steady education of the average American, who intuitively realizes that nearly every “fact” appearing in the media, especially that supported by any given political party, is a lie?

From Gallup’s study on media distrust:

 
 

For the fourth straight year, the majority of Americans say they have little or no trust in the mass media to report the news fully, accurately, and fairly. The 57% who now say this is a record high by one percentage point.

The 43% of Americans who, in Gallup’s annual Governance poll, conducted Sept. 13-16, 2010, express a great deal or fair amount of trust ties the record low, and is far worse than three prior Gallup readings on this measure from the 1970s. (more…)

The Zurich Axioms – Forecasts Predictions And Prophets

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Here’s what Max Gunther, author of ‘The Zurich Axioms’ has to say:

The Zurich Axioms: ‘On Forecasts’, page 62:

Human behavior cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.

‘Speculative Strategy’:
The Fourth Axiom tells you not to build your speculative program on a basis of forecasts, because it won’t work. Disregard all prognostications. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word. Nobody.
Of course, we all wonder what will happen, and we all worry about it. But to seek escape from that worry by leaning on predictions is a formula for poverty. The successful speculator bases no moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen. (more…)

Max Gunther set forth basic trading principles called The Zurich Axioms

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

On Risk:
– Worry is not a sickness but a sign of health – if you are not worried, you are not risking enough.
– Always play for meaningful stakes – if an amount is so small that its loss won’t make any significant difference, then it isn’t likely to bring any significant gains either.
– Resist the allure of diversification.

On Greed:
– Always take your profit too soon.
– Decide in advance what gain you want from a venture, and when you get it, get out.

On Hope:
– When the ship starts sinking, don’t pray. Jump.
– Accept small losses cheerfully as a fact of life. Expect to experience several while awaiting a large gain.

On Forecasts:
– Human behaviour cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.

On Patterns:
– Chaos is not dangerous until it starts to look orderly. (more…)

Forecasts Predictions And Prophets

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Here’s what Max Gunther, author of ‘The Zurich Axioms’ has to say:

The Zurich Axioms: ‘On Forecasts’, page 62:

Human behavior cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.

‘Speculative Strategy’:
The Fourth Axiom tells you not to build your speculative program on a basis of forecasts, because it won’t work. Disregard all prognostications. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word. Nobody.
Of course, we all wonder what will happen, and we all worry about it. But to seek escape from that worry by leaning on predictions is a formula for poverty. The successful speculator bases no moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen.
Design your speculative program on the basis of quick reactions to events that you can actually see developing in the present. Naturally, in selecting an investment and committing money to it, you harbor the hope that its future will be bright. The hope is presumably based on careful study and hard thinking. Your act of committing dollars to the venture is itself a prediction of sorts. You are saying, “I have reason to hope this will succeed.” But don’t let that harden into an oracular pronouncement: “It is bound to succeed because interest rates will come down.” Never, never lose sight of the possibility that you have made a bad bet.
If the speculation does succeed and you find yourself climbing toward a planned ending position, fine, stay with it. If it turns sour despite what all the prophets have promised, remember the Third Axiom. Get out.

Go to top