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Fear in the Markets

  
  Education
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I think there is something to be said for the idea fear-based arguments standing out in people’s minds. Highly charged, emotionally relevant information is certainly processed differently from normal information, which is why advertisers will show very happy people drinking Coke, or people having car wrecks relying on their insurers. The correlations of investor margin debt and price movements of the markets might be one way to quantify how fear impacts speculative behavior …

That having been said, I do notice a kind of cultishness to the permabears… it is an ingrained belief that organizes their thinking about markets, the future, etc. The motivation, I suspect, is a desire to belong to a special group that will be spared the oncoming calamity.

Gems of Jesse Livermore

  
  Education
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Jesse Livermore

What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game — that is, to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play. There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. No man can always have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily — or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.

The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages.

It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of all his mistakes. They say there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side. It took me longer to get that general principle fixed firmly in my mind than it did most of the more technical phases of the game of stock speculation.

Nobody offered to point out the essential differences or set me right. If somebody had told me my method would not work I nevertheless would have tried it out to make sure for myself, for when I am wrong only one thing convinces me of it, and that is, to lose money. And I am only right when I make money. That is speculating.

Desire

  
  Education
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DesireThis post is about one of the most important, but often overlooked rule, having huge philological impact on trader’s course of actions and decision making process.

Never confuse “Making money for the sake of fulfilling material desires” with “Making money as having profit on a trade”.

We do trade for achieving material independence, when we place the trade we need to think PROFIT, NOT “I need to make Rs 5 lac to buy new car”. Setting material goal as a trade objective is dangerous, it clouds our judgment, messing up initial trade setup and timing and interfere with “close position” decision. What if we are not going to make Rs 5 lac on a trade or “within a month”? Are we going to hold position forever if we only making Rs 2 lac? Are we going to quadruple the size of position to achieve “Rs 5 lac objective” sooner? Remember “counting turkeys” story? Are we going to trade even if market is bad and timing is wrong? I doubt that many of us will answer “yes” to any of these questions.

So here comes the rule:
Trade for profit – you’ll decide how to spend it AFTER you’ll make it.

HOW BELIEFS DRIVE TRADING

  
  Education
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What you believe, consciously or unconsciously, propels your trading in its many directions.  It might be so simple a matter as whether you believe a market is going up or down or nowhere.  Traders have biases that distort their perceptions and effect their actions, and they need to guard against these with various protections and bias detectors.

Other beliefs are more veiled and ubiquitous.  For example, you may consciously intend to make money, but you have a counter impulse that thwarts you due to unconscious beliefs that go against that intention.  Perhaps you unconsciously believe that money is the root of all evil, or that rich people are corrupt, or that there isn’t enough to go around and so you shouldn’t be greedy, or that you should be laying up your treasure in heaven, and not on this earth.  Perhaps on some level you believe you shouldn’t make more money than your parents.

When you want something, you have to really want it and not be ambivalent about it.  It has to be your desire, and not some alien value set by your parents or society.  The flower loves the sun, and stretches to receive its rays.  The plant loves water and digs its roots deep seeking the object of its desire.  If you want to make money trading, you really have to admire money and have good purposes for its use.  If you want to be a master trader, you have to be comfortable with that role, and not see trading as wasteful gambling, or an unworthy profession.

Perhaps you believe that you don’t deserve to make money trading, or that you have to work hard for your rewards.  Maybe you believe that only the big boys win, that the market is stacked against the ordinary trader.  Maybe you believe that it’s impossible to make money in the futures markets or, worse, any market.  Maybe you believe it’s possible to make money trading, but it’s not probable that you can keep your winnings.  All such ideas run in opposition to easy and effective trading.

Just as insidiously you may doubt that your system really works, or that it won’t work this time.  Some traders get superstitious: for example, they believe that they always, or tend to, lose money on Fridays, and so, of course, they do.  When any of their superstitious factors occur, somehow they manage to lose.

Strong emotions also get in the way of winning.  Underlying each emotion is some belief about what is happening.  The interpretations you give events color your reality. Underneath each interpretation is a rock core belief.  “That’s just the way it is.” you say. Such a statement flags a belief. Is it really the way it is?  Do you feel guilty, scared, angry, or depressed after a losing trade?  Perhaps you believe that you shouldn’t lose, that one losing trade implies you can’t trade, that one losing trade portends many more losing trades, or that you’ve jinxed yourself for the rest of the day or week.

Equally or possibly even more important are the positive conscious and unconscious beliefs that you hold about trading and investing.

To begin with, to do anything well, you need to believe that it can be done, that you can do it, and that you deserve to do it.  You’re in trouble if you doubt any of these three.  Your trading is at risk if you don’t firmly believe that money can be made trading, that you can make money trading, and that you deserve to make money trading. (more…)

Risk, fear and worry

  
  Education
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They’re not the same.

Risk is all around us. When we encounter potential points of failure, we’re face to face with risk. And nothing courts risk more than art, the desire to do something for the first time–to make a difference.

Fear is a natural reaction to risk. While risk is real and external, fear exists only in our imagination. Fear is the workout we give ourselves imagining what will happen if things don’t work out.

And worry? Worry is the hard work of actively (and mentally) working against the fear. Worry is our effort to imagine every possible way to avoid the outcome that is causing us fear, and failing that, to survive the thing that we fear if it comes to fruition.

If you’ve persuaded yourself that risk is sufficient cause for fear, and that fear is sufficient cause for worry, you’re in for some long nights and soon you’ll abandon your art out of exhaustion. On the other hand, you can choose to see the three as completely separate phenomena, and realize that it’s possible to have risk (a good thing) without debilitating fear or its best friend, obsessive worry.

Separate first, eliminate false causation, then go ahead and do your best work.

INQUISITIVENESS & COMPREHENSION for Traders

  
  Education
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INQUISITIVENESS:  Just another word for curiosity and is the ever-present desire for information and understanding.  Unfortunately this characteristic can easily turn into  analysis paralysis, wherein the sheer quantity of information overwhelms the decision making process itself.  The solution is to remain focused on a very small segment of the market and is at the very heart of successful trading. There is just too much information out there to ever be able to make sense of it all.  Instead, the idea should be to direct your energy toward your trading methodology and not stray when tempted to.

  COMPREHENSION: This is the trader’s ability to attend to the smallest details of his or her trading plan.  I believe a trader must have rules for entering and exiting a trade before the trade is made.  In the beginning these rules can be in the form of a checklist wherein before each trade all the details of your rules are checked and verified.  With time, the rules become such as a part of your psyche that the checklist is in your head and can be confirmed with quick precision.  The key is to never change the rules. When the rules stay the same your mind will not be able to play tricks on you.

5-Costly Trading Mistakes

  
  Education
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1.  Undercapitalized.  If the trader does not have the adequate capital to trade with, then money, not learning how to trade, will be the primary focus.  Few, if any, ever succeed trading scared money.

2.  Overtrading.  The idea is to make money and keep it, not give it all back because of recklessness.  There is no such thing as being perfect when it comes to trading. Overtrading will easily prove just how imperfect you are. 

3.  Trading Too Many Markets.  Learn to be a specialist because in trading it is best to put all your eggs in one basket while knowing how best to watch and protect that basket very closely.

4.  Believing You Are Invincible.  Few activities teach humility as well as trading.  Seasoned traders respect the risk while novice traders treat success as their birthright.

5.  Lack of Dicipline.  You have to have a game plan when trading.  Failure to have a plan betrays your lack of discipline and feeds your desire to trade off the cuff.  Trading this way is a recipe for disaster.  Just ask someone who has tried it.

Over Trading

  
  Education
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overtradingOvertrading is a major obstacle for profitability. People tend to overtrade when they don’t have a plan for the trading day/week.
If overtrading is a major issue for professional traders, lack of discipline is a major issue for developing traders. (more…)

Nuggets of Wisdom from REMINISCENCES OF A STOCK OPERATOR.

  
  Education
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reminiscencesofstockoperator-1
Just Today evening again completed reading this book and this was I think 10th time I had read this book.Iam telling you this is a Bible for Day Traders.
Here are some of the Quotes/Nuggets from this Book.Just spare some time and read them ……
Of course there is always a reason for fluctuations, but the tape does not concern itself with the why and wherefore.
My plan of trading was sound enough and won oftener than it lost. If I had stuck to it I’d have been right perhaps as often as seven out of ten times.
What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game.
But there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. No man can always have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily or sufficient knowledge to make his. play an intelligent play.
The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall
Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages.
It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of all his mistakes. (more…)

6 Effective Ways to Trading Success

  
  Education
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1.  Identify if you really want to be a trader. Is this truly your desire?

Before you can develop persistence and eventually achieve success in the tough trading game, you need to first identify if this is truly what you want to do. If you are only doing this for the money then the odds of you making it through the learning process is very slim. You have to be ‘foolish’ enough through your initial losses to believe that you can rise to the top 10% of profitable traders. Most traders learning curves are measured in years not weeks so trading is more like getting a degree than reading a book over the weekend.

2. Determine your motivation. Why do you want to be a trader?

Motivation comes from a deep reason why we want to achieve or have something.  If you know why you’re doing what you’re doing, it gives you more energy to keep moving forward in learning and getting experience. If you are trading to make a quick buck, then you do not make that buck quickly you will join the quitters. If you are trading to have enough money to pay off your house in 5 years that will create the energy to drive you forward against the odds.

You can get through this first learning stage by writing down specifically all the things you want to have or accomplish through your trading.  List all your desires and wants, all the rewards that will come through you not quitting the trading game. This is what will get you through if your heart is in it. You need a very big bucket of carrots waiting for you on the other side of trading success to get through the whips the market will hit you with while you are learning.

3. Outline Your Definite Action Step

Identifying your wants or desires speaks of what you want to achieve.  Determining your motivation shows the reasons why you want to achieve what you want.  Outlining your definite action step is necessary to know howyou will be able to achieve what you want.

When you know how to get what you want, it makes it easier to achieve it.  To know how, it pays to do some research and planning of what needs to be done on your part.  Be specific on each step you need to take.  Identify at least two ways and plans on how you can achieve your goals.

4. Keep the right mindset, believe that you are going to be a winning trader. (more…)

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