Archives of “Credit” tag

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TSLA (Tesla) earnings released, Q2 EOPS

  
  Analysis
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Q2 EPS 50c (vs. loss/share $2.310 y/y)

  • Free cash flow $418m, estimate loss $617.9m
  • revenue $6.04bn, estimate $5.40bn
Says delivering half million vehicles in 2020 remains the target
  • Says its Shanghai factory is progressing as planned
  • remains difficult to predict whether there will be further operational interruptions or how global consumer sentiment will evolve in H2 2020
It appears there is some financial engineering involved in generating that positive EPS number, generated a record amount from sales of regulatory credits of 428m USD

Deficit discipline is dead

  
  Analysis
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Debt is no longer a four-letter word

The legacy of the coronavirus crisis may be that it kills the idea that deficits matter.
The Tea Party derailed Obama’s legislative agenda, lamenting high deficits. At least 12 Senators and at least 50 members of the House were elected on Tea Party platforms. These were the most-hardcore deficit hawks in history.
Trump vaulted himself to the White House by tapping Tea Party sentiment. Here’s a sample:
For reference, the combined deficit in Obama’s final four years was $2.19 trillion.
Yesterday, Trump tweeted this:
tweet
The deficit in the US this year will be at least $3 trillion and probably $4 trillion.
I’m not here to point out they hypocrisy, you can get the anywhere.

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China Securities Journal: PBOC may cut OMO rates this month

  
  Analysis
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People’s Bank of China open market operations are one tool used to manage liquidity

  • rates may be cut this month reports the CSJ
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China Securities Journal is a national securities newspaper – part of official Xinhua News Agency.

20 risks to markets in 2020 – Use them to make profit

  
  Analysis
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Watch out for those risks

What exactly are the risks to the markets that you should pay attention to? The chief economist of Deutsche Bank Torsten Slok has prepared a list of top 20 risks to global markets in 2020. Each one of them may trigger a downtrend.

  1. Continued increase in wealth inequality, income inequality and healthcare inequality.
  2. Phase one trade deal remains unsigned, continued uncertainty about what comes after phase one.
  3. Trade war uncertainty continued to weigh on corporate capex decisions.
  4. Ongoing slow growth in China, Europe and Japan Triggering significant US dollar appreciation.
  5. Impeachment uncertainty & possible government shutdown.
  6. US election uncertainty; implications for taxes, regulation and capex spending.
  7. Antitrust, privacy and tech regulation.
  8. Foreigners lose appetite for US credit and US Treasuries following Presidential election.
  9. MMT-style fiscal expansion boosts growth significantly in US and/or Europe.
  10. US government debt levels begin to matter for long rates.
  11. Mismatch between demand and supply in T-bills , another repo rate spike.
  12. Fed reluctant to cut rates in an election year.
  13. Credit conditions tighten with more differentiation between CCC and BBB corporate credit.
  14. Credit conditions tighten with more differentiation between CCC and BBB consumer credit.
  15. Fallen angels: More companies falling into BBB. And out of BBB into HY.
  16. More negative-yielding debt sends global investors on renewed hunt for yield in US credit.
  17. Declining corporate profits means fewer dollars available for buybacks.
  18. Shrinking global auto industry a risk for global markets & economy.
  19. House price crash in Australia, Canada and Sweden.
  20. Brexit uncertainty persists.

Greg Steinmetz’s The Richest Man Who Ever Lived -Book Review

  
  Education
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Well, maybe. The other day I read that Mansa Musa, who ruled West Africa’s Malian Empire in the Middle Ages, was the richest person in history, with a personal net worth of $400 billion at the time of his death. Greg Steinmetz’s The Richest Man Who Ever Lived (Simon & Schuster, 2015) isn’t about Mansa Musa, however, but about Jacob/Jakob Fugger (1459-1525), the groundbreaking banker and mining magnate from Augsburg, Germany.

In support of his “richest man” claim, Steinmetz used a metric that he admits is flawed: comparing a person’s net worth with the size of the economy in which he operated. An alternative method, measuring Fugger by his worth in gold, “a method that has the virtue of adjusting for inflation, chops him down to a mere $50 million, making him no wealthier than, say, a successful real estate developer or a multilocation car dealer. That’s not right either.” (p. 202)

Fortunately, for the merit of Steinmetz’s book–which is quite a good read, especially for anyone interested in economic history–Fugger’s rank among the richest really doesn’t matter. Fugger was important not only because he was so rich but because he helped make lending a mainstream capitalist tool and because he was influential in shaping European politics.

Steinmetz summarizes Fugger’s business career:

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