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14 Meaningless Phrases -You Will Always Hear on Blue Channels

  1. The easy money has been made

When to use it: Any time a market or stock has already gone up a lot.BLUE CHANNELS IN INDIA

Why it’s smart-sounding: It implies wise, prudent caution. It implies that you bought or recommended the stock a long time ago, before the easy money was made (and are therefore smart). It suggests that there might be further upside but that there might also be future downside, because the stock is “due for a correction” (another smart-sounding meaningless phrase that you can use all the time). It does not commit you to any specific recommendation or prediction. It protects you from all possible outcomes: If the stock drops, you can say “as I said…” If the stock goes up, you can say “as I said…”

Why it’s meaningless: It’s a statement of the obvious. It’s a description of what has happened, not what will happen. It requires no special insights or powers of analysis. It tells you nothing that you don’t already know. Also, it’s not true: The money that has been made was likely in no way “easy.” Buying stocks that are rising steadily is a lot “easier” than buying stocks that the market has left for dead (because everyone thinks you’re stupid to buy stocks that no one else wants to buy.)

2.I’m cautiously optimistic. (more…)

Bull Market Aphorisms

  • Buy in May and Stay Leveraged Long
  • Buy the Rumor, Buy the News
  • Buy the Dip, Buy the Rip
  • Be Greedy When Others Are Greedy
  • Bulls Make Money, Bullish Pigs Make More Money
  • Rule No. 1: Never Go Short. Rule No. 2: Never Forget Rule No. 1
  • Buy Low, Buy High
  • The Uptrend is Your BFF
  • Always Go Long a Dull Market
  • There’s Always a Bull Market Everywhere
  • 3 Steps and Soar
  • Always Catch a Falling Knife
  • Stairs Up, Elevator Up
  • Stocks Climb a Wall of Serenity
  • Buy When There’s Anything on the Street
  • Always Reach for Yield
  • Buy Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur
  • Anyone Who Went Broke Took Profits
  • This Will End Well
  • Everyone Has a Plan Until They Get Rich in Bitcoin
  • The Easy Money Has Yet to Be Made
  • The Calm Before the Melt-Up

Baker & Nofsinger, eds., Behavioral Finance

Behavioral Finance: Investors, Corporations, and Markets, edited by H. Kent Baker and John R. Nofsinger (Wiley, 2010) is a must-have book for anyone who wants a comprehensive review of the literature on behavioral finance. In thirty-six chapters academics from around the world write about the key concepts of behavioral finance, behavioral biases, behavioral aspects of asset pricing, behavioral corporate finance, investor behavior, and social influences. The book is hefty (757 pages of typographically dense text), and each contribution includes an extensive bibliography. But this is not simply a reference book; it reads surprisingly well.

Why should we study behavioral finance? “Anyone with a spouse, child, boss, or modicum of self-insight knows that the assumption of Homo economicus is false.” (p. 23) In our investing and trading—indeed, in all the financial decisions we make, we are prone to behavioral biases; we are often inconsistent in our choices. Only if we understand the kinds of emotional pulls that negatively affect our financial decisions can we begin to address them as problems. Some of the authors offer suggestions for overcoming these problems.

Here are a few takeaways from the book that give a sense of its tone and breadth.

First, I am happy to report that the literature shows that “high-IQ investors have better stock-picking abilities” than low-IQ investors and they “also appear more skillful because they incur lower transaction costs.” (p. 571) I figure that everyone reading this review falls into the Lake Wobegon category.

Second, individual investors can form powerful herds. “[T]rading by individuals is highly correlated and surprisingly persistent. …[I]ndividual investors tend to commit the same kind of behavioral biases at or around the same time [and hence] have the potential of aggregating. If this is the case, individual investors cannot be treated merely as noise traders but more like a giant institution in terms of their potential impact on the markets.” (p. 531)

Third, what are some of the behavioral factors affecting perceived risk? Although the author lists eleven factors, I’ll share just two. “Benefit: The more individuals perceive a benefit from a potential risky activity, the more accepting and less anxiety (fear) they feel…. Controllability: People undertake more risk when they perceive they are personally in control because they are more likely to trust their own abilities and skills….” (p. 139)

And finally, investors’ attitude toward risk is not fixed. They care about fluctuations in their wealth, not simply the total level. “[T]hey are much more sensitive to reductions in their wealth than to increases,” and “people are less risk averse after prior gains and more risk averse after prior losses.” (p. 355) Interestingly, CBOT traders tend to exhibit a different pattern, reducing risk in the afternoon if they’ve had a profitable morning.

As should be expected in this kind of volume, there is a fair amount of repetition. The same studies are quoted by several authors. We read about such topics as overconfidence and the disposition effect multiple times. The context is different, the principles are the same. But through repetition we come to appreciate the scope of behavioral finance (and often its limitations as well).

Although this book is certainly no primer, the reader needs only a passing familiarity with behavioral finance to profit from it. And for those who are better acquainted with the field, it is a useful compendium and an excellent research tool. It has earned a place in my library.

8 Stock Market Sayings That Should Be Questioned

8) There is a lot of cash on the sidelines.

There is always a lot of cash on the sidelines and that never changes. The buyer of a stock, thus taking cash off the sidelines, gives it to the seller who puts it back on the sidelines.

7) There are more buyers than sellers (or vice versa).

Maybe technically there are more bodies buying or selling than the other side but the number of shares traded has to be exactly the same as for every share bought is a share sold. It’s the aggressiveness of one side or the other that matters.

6) Stocks are attractive because they aren’t quite as overpriced as bonds.

If bonds are artificially priced, shouldn’t stocks be? Overpriced though can of course remain overpriced.

5) The higher stocks go the more attractive and less risky they are.

For long term investors, the more one pays in price today with respect to valuation, the less return they should expect in the future.

4) Stocks aren’t expensive because they are still cheaper than the valuations seen in March 2000.

Really?

3) There is no alternative.

In bull markets there is always no alternative to common stocks. In bear markets, there are always alternatives.

2) We’re going to get a rotation into stocks and out of bonds.

For every portfolio rotating out of bonds has to see someone rotating in and that buyer of stock has someone rotating out. Again, it’s the aggressiveness of the moves that matter.

1) The selloff in stocks was profit taking.

Does anyone refer to a rally as profit seeking?

24 Mistakes done by 90% of Traders

  • EGO (thinking you are a walking think tank, not accepting and learning from you mistakes, etc.)MISTAKE-UPDATE
  • Lack of passion and entering into stock trading with unrealistic expectations about the learning time and performance, without realizing that it often takes 4-5 years to learn how it works and that even +50% annual performance in the long run is very good
  • Poor self-esteem/self-knowledge
  • Lack of focus
  • Not working hard enough and treating your stock trading as a hobby instead of a small business
  • Lack of knowledge and experience
  • Trying to imitate others instead of developing your unique stock trading philosophy that suits best to your personality
  • Listening to others instead of doing your own research
  • Lack of recordkeeping
  • Overanalyzing and overcomplicating things (Zen-like simplicity is the key)
  • Lack of flexibility to adapt to the always/quick-changing stock market
  • Lack of patience to learn stock trading properly, wait to enter into the positions and let the winners run (inpatience results in overtrading, which in turn results in high transaction costs)
  • Lack of stock trading plan that defines your goals, entry/exit points, etc.
  • Lack of risk management rules on stop losses, position sizing, leverage, diversification, etc.
  • Lack of discipline to stick to your stock trading plan and risk management rules
  • Getting emotional (fear, greed, hope, revenge, regret, bragging, getting overconfident after big wins, sheep-like crowd-following behavior, etc.) (more…)

It’s never too late to innovate

Buffett’s having fun with his new partnership-purchase of Heinz. The structure of the deal: Both Berkshire and a Brazilian private equity firm bought the company’s common stock, and then Berkshire, as the financing partner, bought a preferred stock paying 9% interest with the ability to exchange it for even more common shares later. Early results of the takeover have been encouraging and Buffett seems tickled by the creativity of the transaction. “With the Heinz purchase, moreover, we created a partnership template that may be used by Berkshire in future acquisitions of size.” Including Heinz, Berkshire now owns 8 1/2 companies that would be included in the Fortune 500 if they were standalone entities, we are told. One could envision Berkshire doing a Heinz-like transaction once a year!

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