rss

China, Japan, & South Korea at risk of a second wave of disruptions to their supply chains

South China Morning Post  on what is coming next –  ‘second wave’ of coronavirus economic impact

  • China, Japan and South Korea are at risk of a second wave of disruptions to their supply chains due to the ongoing impact of the coronavirus epidemic, which risks already slowing global trade, analysts warned.
  • The three Asian countries contribute around 24 per cent of the entire world economy with a combined yearly trading volume of over US$720 billion, forming one of the most integrated international economic blocs in the world.
Here is the link for more.

South China Morning Post  on what is coming next -  'second wave' of coronavirus economic impact 

US President Trump says the coronavirus will probably spread in the US

President of the United States Trump press conference

  • Says virus will probably spread in the US
There is no probably about it. I am surprised he is not informed on this.
More:
  • May need to restrict travel from Italy, South Korea but now is not the right time
S&P500 futures lower again, getting sold heavily on Globex

Senior IOC member says Tokyo Olympics could be cancelled due to coronavirus

Dick Pound said that if it proves too dangerous to hold the Olympics in Tokyo this summer because of the coronavirus outbreak, organizers are more likely to cancel it altogether than to postpone or move it.

Pound is a senior member of the International Olympic Committee
“In and around that time, I’d say folks are going to have to ask: ‘Is this under sufficient control that we can be confident about going to Tokyo or not?'” he said in an exclusive interview with The Associated Press.
Link here for more
Yep, that’d be bad news for Japan indeed.Dick Pound said that if it proves too dangerous to hold the Olympics in Tokyo this summer because of the coronavirus outbreak, organizers are more likely to cancel it altogether than to postpone or move it.

China says the coronavirus vaccine to be submitted for clinical trials around late April

China Vice Technology Minister Xu says that the fastest a coronavirus vaccine to be submitted for clinical trials will be around late April

So, good news and bad news in that.
ps. China’s Global Times have now reported on that outbreak at a prison with 200+ cases reported.
  • Rencheng Prison
  • located in Jining City, Shandong Province
  • 207 new confirmed cases

Apple supply shortage to last into April: sources

Apple will likely miss its schedule for mass producing a more affordable iPhone, while inventories of existing models could remain low until April or longer, despite suppliers in China gradually resuming production amid the coronavirus outbreak, sources familiar with the matter told the Nikkei Asian Review.

Apple had previously planned to release a more affordable iPhone this spring to maintain sales momentum into the first half of the year. Mass production was supposed to start by the end of February, but multiple sources say meeting that target is now very challenging and production could be delayed until sometime in March.

The U.S. tech giant had previously asked suppliers to ready up to 80 million units of iPhones, including up to 15 million units of the cheaper model, for the first half of 2020, the Nikkei Asian Review reported. With that aggressive production plan now uncertain, Apple became the latest major tech company to lower its revenue forecast on Monday.

“The suppliers are doing their best to produce and ship the [cheaper] iPhone within four weeks. …The delay can’t be too long, otherwise it will affect the sales strategy of Apple’s new products in the second half of this year,” one of the people, who has direct knowledge of the matter, told Nikkei.

“On average, suppliers in the iPhone supply chain are currently operating at around 30% to 50% of capacity,” another source told Nikkei. “The constrained supply of iPhones will likely extend to April. There are still a lot of hurdles, from labor shortages to logistics transportation.”

“The biggest uncertainty is still lingering as no one can be sure whether the coronavirus is under control,” the person said. The source added, however, that most suppliers expect to have more employees back at work as soon as next Monday, after the 14-day quarantine period expires for those who returned from other provinces by Feb. 10. (more…)

China trade body says some customers have stopped accepting China metal products amid coronavirus outbreak

China trade body: some customers in Russia, Turkey, Middle East and North Africa have stopped accepting deliveries of China metal products amid coronavirus outbreak

More:
  • some overseas customers, including from India, ask China metal firms to pay damages for failure to deliver products on time

Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.14% at 23,827.73

Asian equities slip on renewed coronavirus concerns

Nikkei 13-02

The jump in the number of cases reported by Hubei here – owing to a reclassification – is causing investors to be a little unsettled to start the day, as concerns surrounding the coronavirus outbreak continue to persist.

That has seen risk trades take a bit of a hit, with Chinese equities on course to snap their seven-day rally; Shanghai Composite is down by 0.8% currently.
USD/JPY is lingering near the lows around 109.84 currently as Treasury yields are also marked lower with 10-year yields down 3.6 bps to 1.597% at the moment.

China’s Hubei province has reported 14,840 new coronavirus cases

Big number of new coronavirus cases reported from the province. As of end Feb 12.

Wuhan is the epicentre of the epidemic, capital of Hubei
The authorities in Hubei have revised their diagnostic standard for coronavirus cases.
242 deaths on Feb 12
  • Death toll in the province now totals 1,310.
Risk trades taking a beating oin the news
  • CNH down
  • S&P 500 futures on Globex down
AUD/JPY ditto:
Big number of new coronavirus cases reported from the province. As of end Feb 12.

Moody’s weighs in on coronavirus economic impacts – could continue over next 3 quarters

Moody’s now:

  • says despite some turbulence, APC airports can weather coronavirus challenges
  • financial impact for APAC airports larger than suggested by passenger volumes at risk
  • says suggests travel between Asian destinations could be significantly affected over at least next 2-3 quarters due to coronavirus

Moody’s focused on airport/travel impacts – tourist movements are significant indeed in Asia (and elsewhere of course), business-related travel also.  There are significant flow-on effects from a reduced inbound flow of tourists, offset to some extent by locals otherwise taking holidays domestically.

S&P says coronavirus outbreak will cut 0.5% from Australia’s real GDP growth in 2020

The ratings agency a bit downbeat on Australia’s GDP, but on the bright side:

  • S&P says economic impact of coronavirus unlikely to negatively affect Australia’s sovereign rating
  • says short, temporary delay in balancing government budget unlikely to strain Australia’s creditworthiness
Go to top