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EUR/CHF threatens a three-year low as some risk aversion creeps in

  
Analysis, Forex
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The euro is soft on all fronts

The euro is the laggard today as the pain trade continues for euro bulls.
EUR/CHF is no exception as the pair threatens the low of the year at 1.0663. We’re just 5 pips from there now and if that breaks, the next big support level is the 2017 low of 1.0632.
The euro is soft on all fronts

More risk aversion is creeping in today as the minutes tick by. Stocks in the US are holding up but Treasury yields are sliding and gold is climbing.

Libyan rival government shuts down half of oil exports

  
Analysis, Crude
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Move will cut 800,000 barrels per day of supply

Move will cut 800,000 barrels per day of supply
Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar blocked oil exports at ports under his control, cutting Libyan exports by 800,000 barrels per day.
The move is a power play ahead of a conference with Tripoli’s government that will be hosted by Angela Merkel in Berlin. He has so far refused to end his offensive and agree to peace and walked away from talks last week in Russia.
Recently, Turkey pledged support to Tripoli but cutting off exports will make it difficult to fund weapons purchases.
If exports remain cut off when markets re-open, expect a rise in oil prices. Total world production this year is about 102 million barrels per day and this would create a deficit, especially in Europe when Libya exports the vast majority of its crude.

OPEC expects the oil market to be balanced in 2020 if it maintains current production levels

  
Analysis, Crude
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This according to data presented in Vienna to the bloc’s Economic Commission Board this week

OPEC

According to delegates, it shows that an oil supply surplus in 1H 2020 will be mostly offset by a deficit in 2H 2020. As such, the bloc sees that the oil market will be balanced next year and that puts them on course to stick with the current set of output cuts.

Do be reminded that OPEC will be meeting next week to finalise their decision but the expectation is for them to maintain the existing output cuts (due to expiry in March 2020) into the latter stages of next year.
The report by Bloomberg above only serves to reaffirm that notion with a mention that the bloc’s secretariat did not examine the prospect of deeper cuts.

German thieves pull off brazen heist at Green Vault museum

  
  Analysis
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Burglars stole priceless jewelry and diamonds

Burglars stole priceless jewelry and diamonds
Thieves burglarized Dresden’s historic Green Vault museum in the early hours today.
At around 5 am local time the security system of the complex was tipped and two suspects were shown in the jewelry room of the 10-room museum and took three complete sets of jewelry.
It’s not entirely clear what was taken but officials said around 100 pieces were stolen including diamonds on gemstones. The jewelry stored in the vault is the equivalent of the crown jewels in the UK and have been held in the area for 300 years.
The artifacts are priceless but if the jewellery was broken down and pieced out, it would be considerably less valuable.
The police have mentioned two suspicious fires in the area around the time of the theft and a damaged box that turned off the nearby streetlights.
Two-and-a-half years ago, German thieves were also in the news after stealing a giant gold coin weighing 100kg. At today’s prices, it was worth $4.68m. They smashed a window and then used a wheelbarrow to transport it across railway tracks and to a getaway car.
After an anonymous tip, a security guard who recently started working at the museum was charged with the crime along with three family members. The trial is underway and will continue in 2020. The coin hasn’t been recovered and was likely melted down.
The largest gold heist in history was in 1976 when eight men stole 12 tons of gold bars from the British Bank of the Middle East in Beirut along with $160m of silver, platinum, gems, bonds and currency. No one has ever been charged with the crime, which occurred after blasting through the wall of an adjacent church.

Trump directly threatens lira if Turkey launches ‘unnecessary’ attacks

  
Analysis, Forex
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Lira fell 2% yesterday

Trump is responding to criticism about abandoning the Kurds in Northern Syria as Turkey launches attacks near the border.
We may be in the process of leaving Syria, but in no way have we Abandoned the Kurds, who are special people and wonderful fighters. Likewise our relationship with Turkey, a NATO and Trading partner, has been very good. Turkey already has a large Kurdish population and fully understands that while we only had 50 soldiers remaining in that section of Syria, and they have been removed, any unforced or unnecessary fighting by Turkey will be devastating to their economy and to their very fragile currency. We are helping the Kurds financially/weapons!

Erdogan will visit the White House on November 13.

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