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China said to stagger reopening of schools in order to limit coronavirus transmission

Reuters reports, citing a government official on the matter

No firm date is being given on the matter but earlier in the month, China has said that students will only return to school next month.

It makes sense to split the reopening into batches but if anything else, it just goes to show that it will take more time before China returns back to normality again.

Apple extends coronavirus store closures in China

Apple pushes back reopening

Apple had intended to reopen stores on Feb 10 but now says it plans for Feb 13-15, according to a statement sent to Bloomberg.
The market is using Apple and Starbucks as a bit of a barometer for Chinese commerce. This really shouldn’t be a surprise, the streets in Shanghai are empty.

Check this out to put the coronavirus impact into perspective

This is one perspective, there will be others.

  • When the SARS epidemic hit in 2003 China had an economy size aroiund USD 1.7 tln
  • Today it is nearly an order of magnitude larger, around USD 13.7 tln
  • & China’s economy accounts for around a third of global GDP growth

ps.  this from Apple’s Tim Cook on what is happening with his business in China this week:

  • “We have closed one of our retail stores and a number of channel partners have also closed their store fronts. Our sales within the Wuhan areas are small, but retail traffic has also been impacted cross the country (China) in the last few days.”

Bolding mine.

Multiply the impact on traffic to Apple stores across the economy.

china coronavirus

Intel earnings are impressive (as is guidance)

EPS $1.52 versus $1.25 as expected

Intel stock is moving sharply higher in after-hours trading after their earnings and revenues beat expectations.

  • EPS, $1.52 versus $1.25 estimate
  • Revenues $20.2 billion versus estimate $19.22 billion
  • Intel sees 2020 revenues about $73.5 billion versus estimate of $72.21 billion
  • Intel sees 2020 adjusted earnings-per-share of $5 versus estimate of $4.69
  • Intel sees 1st quarter revenue about $19 billion versus estimate of $17.2 billion
  • Intel earnings, forecasts boosted by cloud a data center demand
  • Guidance completely above normal seasonal levels
The stock is currently trading at $67.82 after hours. That is up $4.50 or 7.11%

The earnings calendar for next week includes Netflix, IBM, Intel, and American Express

A lot of the big names are still ahead but some interesting names reporting next week

Tuesday, January 21
  • UBS
  • Netflix
  • United Airlines
  • Capital One
  • IBM
Wednesday, January 22
  • Abbott
  • Johnson & Johnson
  • Texas Instruments
Thursday, January 23
  • Comcast
  • P&G
  • Intel
  • American Airlines
  • Kimberly-Clark
Friday, January 24
  • American Express
  • synchrony

Day 1 of 2020 and record closes for the major indices, and at session highs too.

NASDAQ index leads the way with a gain over 1.33%

It is day one of 2020 and the major indices are all closing at record levels. The NASDAQ index is leading the way with a gain over 1%.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index rose 27.21 points or 0.84% to 3257.98. The high price was at 3258.14. The low extended to 3235.53
  • NASDAQ index rose 119.58 points or 1.33% to 9092.18. The high reached 9093.43. The low extended to 9010.89
  • Dow industrial average rose 331.51 points or 1.16% to 28869.95. The high reached 28872.80. The low extended to 28627.77
It is only one day, but the markets are starting off with a flourish in 2020.  Apple reached $300.00 and is closing above the $300 level for the first time ever (closing at $300.35).   For the day Apple rose $6.70 or 2.28%.
Other big gainers among the big names include:
  • AMD, +7.06%
  • Tencent, +3.77%
  • Alibaba, +3.61%
  • Northrop Grumman rose 3.39%
  • micron, +3.03%
  • Tesla, +2.87%
  • Amazon rose 2.72%
  • Salesforce rose 2.69%
  • Disney rose to 2.43%
  • PayPal rose 2.39%
  • Apple rose 2.28%
  • Facebook rose 2.21%
  • Alphabet rose 2.19%

Laggards include:

  • General Mills, -2.67%
  • Target, -1.68%
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb, -1.23%
  • Procter & Gamble, -1.15%
  • Costco, -0.83%
  • Papa John’s, -0.46%
  • Coca-Cola, -0.63%
  • Wells Fargo, -0.04%

Eurozone December final manufacturing PMI 46.3 vs 45.9 prelim

Latest data released by Markit – 2 January 2020

The preliminary release can be found here. The mildly higher revision was predicated by the French and German readings earlier but it is still weaker than the November print.

All this does is just reaffirm more sluggish factory conditions in the euro area economy towards the end of last year and that any signs of a recovery still needs more consistency despite a better outlook to US-China trade and Brexit developments.

Markit notes that:

“Eurozone manufacturers reported a dire end to 2019, with output falling at a rate not exceeded since 2012. The survey is indicative of production falling by 1.5% in the fourth quarter, acting as a severe drag on the wider economy.

Although firms grew somewhat more optimistic about the year ahead, a return to growth remains a long way off given that new order inflows continued to fall at one of the fastest rates seen over the past seven years. Firms sought to reduce inventory levels and cut headcounts as a result, focusing on slashing capacity and lowering costs. Such cost cutting was again also evident in further steep falls in demand for machinery, equipment and production-line inputs.”

Aramco’s IPO has lessons for Asia’s state-owned oil companies

Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia’s state-controlled oil company, held a record-breaking initial public offering earlier in December, becoming the world’s most valuable listed company, ahead of Apple of the U.S.

The listing on the Riyadh stock market on Dec. 11 gave Aramco a market value of $1.877 trillion. The $25.6 billion raised was also a record, breaking the previous mark set in 2014 by China’s e-commerce leader, Alibaba Group Holding.

The IPO has set off speculation about how the stock flotation will affect other state-owned oil producers, especially in Asia.

According to the International Monetary Fund’s latest forecast, Saudi Arabia will incur a fiscal deficit of 178.5 billion riyals ($47.57 billion) in 2019, staying in the red for the sixth consecutive year. The economy of the kingdom is greatly affected by the price of crude oil, which generates 70% of government revenue. As the world moves toward alternative forms of energy to combat climate change, the risks of relying heavily on oil will grow.

In 2016, Saudi Arabia adopted the Vision 2030 plan aimed at reducing its dependence on oil and creating a sustainable growth model. The listing of Aramco is key to the shift. (more…)

Base-case still for Fed to stay on hold in December and through 2020 – Citi

Citi on the Fed outlook

Citi discusses the Fed policy trajectory in light of yesterday’s FOMC minutes from the October meeting.

“Minutes from the October 30th FOMC released overnight are broadly consistent with Citi analysts expectations for disagreement regarding the need to cut, but agreement that on leaving policy rates on-hold. On USD supply to year end (the more interesting part of the Minutes), Fed officials continue to look for ways to make sure funding pressures in the overnight lending market don’t cause a problem again with a “standing repo” seen as the preferred option that would likely provide substantial assurance of control over the federal funds rate (and USD supply). However, Citi analysts do not expect a final decision until H1 2020. ,” Citi notes.

The Citi analyst view remains for the Fed to stay on hold in December and through 2020 though muted inflation makes hikes in the next year very unlikely. Cuts are possible should domestic activity data indicate a slowdown,” Citi adds.

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