Archives of “china” tag

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China president Xi Jinping: Chinese economic recovery leads the world

  
Analysis, Economy
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Comments by China president Xi Jinping

Xi Jinping
  • Will strive to make up economic losses caused by coronavirus pandemic
  • Will strive to achieve good results for economic growth this year
  • Will make fiscal policy more proactive, prudent monetary policy more flexible
  • Will continue to cut taxes and fees
There isn’t much of anything new here from Xi, but this just reaffirms that China will continue to maintain the current set of policies and keep bolstering the economy for many more months as they deal with the fallout from the virus outbreak earlier in the year.

China Industrial Production +4.8% y/y (expected 4.8%) Retail Sales -1.8% y/y (expected 0.5%)

  
  Analysis
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China activity data for June 2020

  • Industrial Production +4.8% y/y vs. expected 4.8%, prior was 4.4%
  • industrial production YTD -1.3% y/y vs. expected -1.5%, prior was -2.8%
  • Fixed Assets (excluding rural) YTD -3.1% y/y vs. expected -3.3%, prior was -6.3%
  • Retail Sales -1.8% y/y vs. expected 0.5%, prior was -2.8%
  • Retail Sales YTD -11.4% y/y vs. expected -11.2%, prior was -13.5%

more to come

Fauci says will have an effective COVID-19 vaccine by the end of 2020

  
  Analysis
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Anthony Fauci speaking with Reuters on the coronavirus

  • Says that US will have an effective coronavirus vaccine by year-end
  • Moderna’s vaccine trial results were especially promising
  • He does not think China will be first with a vaccine, at least not by much
Anthony Fauci speaking with Reuters on the coronavirus

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 1.59% at 22,945.50

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Japanese stocks boosted by more upbeat Wall Street sentiment

Nikkei 15-07

The late surge by US stocks overnight is helping to give Asian equities a decent lift in trading today, though Chinese and Hong Kong stocks are weighed down by US-China tensions after Trump removed Hong Kong’s special status earlier in the day.

The Hang Seng is seen at flat levels now after trading in the red earlier while the Shanghai Composite has pared some losses to be down by 0.2% currently.
Elsewhere, US futures are still keeping more upbeat with S&P 500 futures up by ~0.8%.
That is keeping the likes of the aussie and kiwi more underpinned ahead of European morning trade, with AUD/USD flirting with the 0.7000 handle while NZD/USD is trying to crack back above its key hourly moving averages at 0.6552-69.

Trump says he is not interested in speaking with China on another trade deal

  
  Analysis
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Whiny biatch speaking in a CBS interview Sry, damn autocorrect. Trump speaking in a CBS interview.

So far he has been whining about getting schools reopened and various grievances he has with life.
Comment on China the only one really pertaining to markets, so far at least.
Whiny biatch speaking in a CBS interview Sry, damn autocorrect. Trump speaking in a CBS interview. 

More from Trump:

  • We can impose massive tariffs on China f we want
  • You’ll see more coming on actions towards China
  • China is buying a lot of agricultural products

UK government announces ban to Huawei from the country’s 5G networks

  
  Analysis
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Confirmation by UK culture minister, Oliver Dowden

Huawei
  • Telco companies to be barred from buying Huawei equipment from 2021
  • UK pledges to remove Huawei equipment by 2027
  • Huawei ban will delay, add costs to 5G rollout
  • The requirement will be set out in law

Dowden is alluding to the fact that US sanctions have made it hard to come to a decision to continue dealing with Huawei, but this just adds to the divide between the UK and China as well amid the recent Hong Kong row.

But in any case, this will also just heighten tensions between China and the US, UK further.

Add this to the data agenda for Tuesday 14 July 2020 – China June trade data

  
  Analysis
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Trade balance, exports and imports data are due from China today for june June 2020

There is no specific time set for the releases, and it has been very unpredictable in past months.

Yuan terms:

trade balance: expected CNY 425bn, prior was CNY 442.75bn

  • Exports y/y: expected +3.5%, prior was +1.4%
  • Imports y/y: expected -4.7%, prior was -12.7%

USD terms:

trade balance: expected $59.6bn, prior was $62.93bn

  • Exports: expected -2.0%, prior -3.3%
  • Imports: expected -9.0%, prior was -16.7%

Heavy rainfall in China – 433 rivers have flooded

  
  Analysis
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China’s ministry of water resources (via Global Times)

  • 433 rivers have flooded in China
  • 33 rivers have recorded their highest level in history
Further (Reuters):
  • China raised its flood response alert on Sunday to the second highest level
  • heavy rain in regions along the Yangtze River
  • eastern provinces of Jiangsu and Jiangxi among the worst hit

AUD/USD to drop back to 0.64 by year end – global economy weakening, China retaliation

  
Analysis, Forex
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A brief summary from a late week Rabobank note on the Australian dollar:

  • investors are currently over-estimating the ability of the global economy to bounce back from the pandemic
Combined with:
  • any news that China could be targeting Australian exports in retaliation for the government’s political stance would also leave AUD vulnerable
Rabo’s view is thus:
  • we see risk of a drop in sentiment by the end of the year 
  • likely to drag AUD/USD lower
  • forecast AUD/USD at 0.64 on a six-month view
A brief summary from a late week Rabobank note on the Australian dollar:
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