1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time.
2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.
3. There are no new eras – excesses are never permanent.
4. Exponential rising and falling markets usually go further than you think.
5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom.
6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve.
7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a
handful of blue-chips.
8. Bear markets have three stages.
9. When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen.
10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets.
Archives of “bull markets” tag
rssTrading Wisdom Not Heard Often
- Buy from the scared, sell to the greedy.
- Buy their pain, not their gain.
- Successful traders are quick to change their minds and have little pride of opinion.
- I made my money because I always got out too soon. (Bernard Baruch)
- Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars. (Bernard Baruch)
- Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting. (Jesse Livermore)
- The faster a stock has climbed, the quicker it will fall.
- The more certain the crowd is, the surer it is to be wrong. (Menschel)
- Bear markets begin in good times. Bull markets begin in bad times
- Never confuse genius with a bull market.
- Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit
Ten Trading Lessons
1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time.
2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.
3. There are no new eras – excesses are never permanent.
4. Exponential rising and falling markets usually go further than you think.
5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom.
6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve.
7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chips.
8. Bear markets have three stages.
9. When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen.
10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets.
15 Points for Trading System & Money Management
1. Capital comes in two varieties: Mental and that which is in your pocket or account.
Of the two types of capital, the mental is the more important and expensive of the two. Holding to losing positions costs measurable sums of actual capital, but it costs immeasurable sums of mental capital.
2. “Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent”, according to our good friend, Dr. A. Gary Shilling.
Illogic often reigns and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe.
3. An understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an understanding of economics.
Markets are driven by human beings making human errors and also making super-human insights.
4. The market is the sum total of the wisdom … and the ignorance…of all of those who deal in it; and we dare not argue with the market’s wisdom.
If we learn nothing more than this we’ve learned much indeed.
5. The hard trade is the right trade: If it is easy to sell, don’t; and if it is easy to buy, don’t.
Do the trade that is hard to do and that which the crowd finds objectionable.
Peter Steidelmeyer taught us this twenty five years ago and it holds truer now than then.
6. There is never one cockroach: Bad news begets bad news, which begets even worse news. (more…)
The coming economic crisis in China
By Jim Jubak
I think investors are worried about the wrong kind of crisis in China.
Worry seems to focus on the possibility of an asset bubble and the chance that it will burst sometime in the next two to three months.
I’m more concerned about a slide into a crisis that will be an extension of the Great Recession. That slide could begin, I estimate, sometime in the next 12 to 18 months.
I understand the worry about the possibility of an asset bubble in China. After all, we’ve just been through two horrible asset bubbles — and busts — in the U.S. and global financial markets. And a Chinese bubble is a distinct possibility, one that should certainly figure into your investing strategy.
But China’s economy and political system are so different from ours in the U.S. and those in the rest of the developed world — and its relationship to the global financial market so unique — that I don’t think we’re headed toward any kind of replay of March 2000 or October 2007.
A bigger worry is a long-term slide into a lower-growth or no-growth world in which nations strive to beggar their neighbors and all portfolios slump. As crises go, it’s very different but ultimately just as painful for investors as the asset bubbles that draw all our attention now.
To paraphrase Leo Tolstoy in “Anna Karenina“: Happy bull markets are all alike; every unhappy bear market is unhappy in its own way.
These 16 Rules Will Make You A Better Trader
1. Never, Ever, Ever, Under Any Circumstance, Add to a Losing Position… not ever, not never! Adding to losing positions is trading’s carcinogen; it is trading’s driving while intoxicated. It will lead to ruin. Count on it!
2. Trade Like a Wizened Mercenary Soldier: We must fight on the winning side, not on the side we may believe to be correct economically.
3. Mental Capital Trumps Real Capital: Capital comes in two types, mental and real, and the former is far more valuable than the latter. Holding losing positions costs measurable real capital, but it costs immeasurable mental capital.
4. This is Not a Business of Buying Low and Selling High: It is, however, a business of buying high and selling higher. Strength tends to beget strength, and weakness, weakness.
5. In Bull Markets One Can Only Be Long or Neutral, and in bear markets, one can only be short or neutral. This may seem self-evident; few understand it, however, and fewer still embrace it.
6. “Markets Can Remain lllogical Far Longer Than You or I Can Remain Solvent.” These are Keynes’ words, and illogic does often reign, despite what the academics would have us believe. (more…)
Why Warren Buffett should be your role model
Some people have claimed that Warren Buffett made all his money from the 80’s and 90’s bull market. He happened to be at the right place at the right time, they say.
If so, how come nobody came close? There were lots of people at the right place and right time like Buffett. They are what we call baby boomers!
It really isn’t about bull markets that Buffett made his money. He started out in the early 70’s. (The secular bull market started over 10 years after that).
The first few years, he was making 50-100% returns per year.
So if he were to do a redo, his results wouldn’t be that much different 40 years later.
Market Rules to Remember
1) Markets tend to return to the mean over time.
2) Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.
3) There are no new eras — excesses are never permanent.
4) Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.
5) The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom.
6) Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve.
7) Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue chip names.
8) Bear markets have three stages — sharp down, reflexive rebound, and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend.
9) When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen.
10) Bull markets are more fun than bear markets.
DENNIS GARTMAN'S RULES FOR TRADERS
1. Never, under any circumstance add to a losing position! Ever! Nothing more need be said; to do otherwise will eventually and absolutely lead to ruin!
2. Trade like a mercenary guerrilla. We must fight on the winning side and be willing to change sides readily when one side has gained the upper hand.
3. Capital comes in two varieties: Mental and that which is in your pocket or account. Of the two types of capital, the mental is the more important and expensive of the two. Holding to losing positions costs measurable sums of actual capital, but it costs immeasurable sums of mental capital.
4. The objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and to sell higher. We can never know what price is too low. Nor can we know what price is too high. Always remember that sugar once fell from $1.25/lb to 2 cent/lb and seemed cheap many times along the way.
5. In bull markets we can only be long or neutral, and in bear markets we can only be short or neutral. That may seem self-evident; it is not, and it is a lesson learned too late by far too many.
6. Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent according to our good friend, Dr. A. Gary Shilling. Illogic often reigns and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe.
7. Sell markets that show the greatest weakness, and buy those that show the greatest strength. Metaphorically, when bearish, throw your rocks into the wettest paper sack, for they break most readily. In bull markets, we need to ride upon the strongest winds as they shall carry us higher than shall lesser ones.
8. Try to trade the first day of a gap, for gaps usually indicate violent new action. We have come to respect gaps in our nearly thirty years of watching markets; when they happen (especially in stocks) they are usually very important.
9. Trading runs in cycles: some good; most bad. Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and modestly when trading poorly. In good times even errors are profitable; in bad times even the most well researched trades go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it.
10. To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a trade, but also that we understand the market’s technicals. When we do, then, and only then, can we or should we, trade.
11. Respect outside reversals after extended bull or bear runs. Reversal days on the charts signal the final exhaustion of the bullish or bearish forces that drove the market previously. Respect them, and respect even more weekly and monthly, reversals.
12. Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance.
13. Respect and embrace the very normal 50-62% retracements that take prices back to major trends. If a trade is missed, wait patiently for the market to retrace. Far more often than not, retracements happen just as we are about to give up hope that they shall not.
14. An understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an understanding of economics. Markets are driven by human beings making human errors and also making super-human insights.
15. Establish initial positions on strength in bull markets and on weakness in bear markets. The first addition should also be added on strength as the market shows the trend to be working. Henceforth, subsequent additions are to be added on retracements.
16. Bear markets are more violent than are bull markets and so also are their retracements.
17. Be patient with winning trades; be enormously impatient with losing trades. Remember it is quite possible to make large sums trading/investing if we are right only 30% of the time, as long as our losses are small and our profits are large.
18. The market is the sum total of the wisdom and the ignorance of all of those who deal in it; and we dare not argue with the market’s wisdom. If we learn nothing more than this we’ve learned much indeed.
19. Do more of that which is working and less of that which is not: If a market is strong, buy more; if a market is weak, sell more. New highs are to be bought; new lows sold.
20. The hard trade is the right trade: If it is easy to sell, don’t; and if it is easy to buy, don’t. Do the trade that is hard to do and that which the crowd finds objectionable. Peter Steidlmayer taught us this twenty five years ago and it holds truer now than then.
21. There is never one cockroach! This is the winning new rule submitted by our friend, Tom Powell.
22. All rules are meant to be broken: The trick is knowing when and how infrequently this rule may be invoked!
Richard Rhodes' Trading Rules
If I’ve learned anything in my decades of trading, I’ve learned that the simple methods work best. Those who need to rely upon complex stochastics, linear weighted moving averages, smoothing techniques, Fibonacci numbers etc., usually find that they have so many things rolling around in their heads that they cannot make a rational decision. One technique says buy; another says sell. Another says sit tight while another says add to the trade. It sounds like a cliche, but simple methods work best.
- The first and most important rule is – in bull markets, one is supposed to be long. This may sound obvious, but how many of us have sold the first rally in every bull market, saying that the market has moved too far, too fast. I have before, and I suspect I’ll do it again at some point in the future. Thus, we’ve not enjoyed the profits that should have accrued to us for our initial bullish outlook, but have actually lost money while being short. In a bull market, one can only be long or on the sidelines. Remember, not having a position is a position.
- Buy that which is showing strength – sell that which is showing weakness. The public continues to buy when prices have fallen. The professional buys because prices have rallied. This difference may not sound logical, but buying strength works. The rule of survival is not to “buy low, sell high”, but to “buy higher and sell higher”. Furthermore, when comparing various stocks within a group, buy only the strongest and sell the weakest.
- When putting on a trade, enter it as if it has the potential to be the biggest trade of the year. Don’t enter a trade until it has been well thought out, a campaign has been devised for adding to the trade, and contingency plans set for exiting the trade.
- On minor corrections against the major trend, add to trades. In bull markets, add to the trade on minor corrections back into support levels. In bear markets, add on corrections into resistance. Use the 33-50% corrections level of the previous movement or the proper moving average as a first point in which to add.
- Be patient. If a trade is missed, wait for a correction to occur before putting the trade on. (more…)