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Covid-19 lockdown: Petroleum sector throttled

  
  Analysis
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The lockdown has severely hurt the petroleum sector, with oil and gas as well as refining suffering a sharp decline in production.

 

Gas output in April fell 18.6 per cent to 2.16 billion cubic metres (bcm) against 2.65bcm a year ago, according to the oil ministry.The country’s top gas producer ONGC reported a 15.3 per cent drop in output at 1.72bcm.

“The shortfall in gas production (by ONGC) is primarily due to less gas offtake by consumers,” the ministry said.

State-owned Oil India Ltd also produced 10 per cent less natural gas at 202.05 million cubic metres because of the presence of carbon dioxide at one of its fields in Assam and less purchases by consumers because of the lockdown.

Crude oil production fell 6.35 per cent to 2.5 million tonnes (mt) in April.Production at ONGC was marginally lower at 1.7 mt, while private player Cairn produced 19.2 per cent less at 615,800 tonnes.

ONGC had to shut down some of its wells on the western coast because of lower demand from GAIL and the restriction of movement of its staff.

Refineries produced about 30 per cent less fuel in April at 18.9mt as the lockdown kept most vehicles off the roads.

“Reasons for the shortfall in production mainly include low demand due to Covid-19 lockdown,” the ministry said.

Petroleum product demand is expected to fall eight per cent to 4,597 thousand barrels per day in 2020, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said as part of its May oil market report.

Demand is projected to fall 350 thousand barrels per day in the second quarter of 2020, primarily because of mobility restrictions.

The IEA has projected demand to fall 60 per cent year-on-year in April and May.Diesel demand is projected to contract 690 thousand barrels per day in the second quarter of 2020, while demand for aviation turbine fuel (ATF) and kerosene is projected to fall almost 40 per cent in April-May.

Roughly half of the kerosene produced is used as jet fuel and will be severely impacted by airline restrictions, the IEA said.

Overall, India’s oil demand is expected to fall 4.60 million barrels per day in 2020 compared with 5.01 million barrels per day in 2019.

The agency expects domestic crude oil production to continue to decline in 2020.

Suzuki postpones India auto plant opening amid sales slump World’s No. 4 car market skids as tighter credit and high

  
  Analysis
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Japan’s Suzuki Motor has postponed the opening of a new plant in western India, Nikkei has learned. The plant, originally scheduled to go online in April 2020, will now begin operating next July.

Suzuki’s decision to postpone the startup is the latest in a string of efforts by Indian carmakers to deal with a softening market. Suzuki Motor Gujarat, a wholly owned local subsidiary, is building the new plant in the state of Gujarat. The $550 million factory will raise the company’s capacity in India by 250,000 cars annually to 2.25 million.

India’s auto market is sluggish and likely to remain so, with new car sales in 2019 expected to fall below the previous year’s levels for the first time in five years. Suzuki was forced to push back the opening of the new plant to assess demand.

India is the world’s fourth-largest auto market, with 4.4 million new cars sold in 2018, ahead of Germany’s 3.82 million. However, sales began falling last November and the declines widened to double digits starting in April. The slowdown in India has confounded automakers around the world, which had been banking on growth. That is exacerbating a global sales slump.

Maruti Suzuki, Suzuki’s local subsidiary and the country’s largest automaker, and Mahindra & Mahindra, the third-largest local manufacturer, idled plants for several days in the July to September quarter due to sluggish sales. Maruti laid off 3,000 contract employees in August, while Tata Motors, the No. 4 carmaker, has accepted a 65 billion rupee ($910 million) bailout from Tata Group, the conglomerate to which it belongs.

Suzuki has set an ambitious target for India, hoping to raise sales to 5 million cars a year by 2030. The move to postpone the opening of the Gujarat plant is temporary, the company says, but the outlook is murky. It may have to reassess its long-term strategy if the opening is pushed back for a long time.

“I think we need to watch [for] maybe three months to see what the market is up to in January before we can make a somewhat more certain prediction,” said Maruti Chairman R.C. Bhargava in an interview with Nikkei on Oct. 24.

On Tuesday, Suzuki said it expects sales in India to fall 20% on the year to about 1.4 million cars in the year ending March 2020. With sales tepid in the country, which accounted for 30% of Suzuki’s total revenue, the company’s net profit for the current business year is now forecast at 140 billion yen ($1.28 billion), down 22% from the previous year.

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Big Tech wins US talent war as Trump visa policy hurts Indian IT

  
  Analysis
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While the immigration policies of U.S. President Donald Trump give the impression of slamming the door on foreign talent, a closer look at visa data shows that the big four American tech companies are accelerating their drive to attract and retain highly skilled professionals.

In contrast, the biggest losers are Indian information technology companies, such as Cognizant Technology Solutions, Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services, who had long been the biggest employers of foreign IT talent in the U.S.

At issue is the H-1B visa, the permit that allows foreign talent with specialized skills to reside and work in the U.S. for up to six years. People from India, especially with computer skills, account for the biggest percentage — 74% — of H-1B visa applicants, followed by those from China at 11%.

Workers who enter the U.S. under the H-1B have the opportunity to apply for permanent residency and start their own business. The prospect of the American dream has enabled the U.S. to attract some of the best minds in the world and has been the engine of innovation in the country.

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BSE Sensex :Below 17897 ,My target-17448-17298

  
Analysis, Education
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-Above is the Daily chart of BSE -SENSEX.

-Just see IN 6 days crashed by 428 points after hitting a high of 18047.

-Look at Negative Divergence on RSI (Same u will see in Nifty Future chart too )

-MACD is in sell mode.

-Just remember these levels :Crucial support for Sensex -17748-17298.

-In this fall it will try to kiss these levels.

-Suppose break and closes below 17298 level for 3 days then Iam expecting slide to continue and panic can take Sensex upto 16849-16699 level.

-Above levels are valid till Sensex not crosses 18047 level.

-101% No need of Watch Blue Channels or Read Pink papers and Pay money for Subscription.To know trend and levels for Sensex and NF ,I will do free of cost in this Blog only.

To know more about Intraday trading calls/Commodity trend/Crude /Forex /Global Indices & Stocks ,Just send me at [email protected]

Updated at 7:17/16th April/Baroda

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