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A Dozen Reflections on Life and Markets

  
  Education
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reflectiononlifeI’ve never seen a trader succeed whose explicit or implicit goal was to not lose. The trader who trades to not lose is like the person who lives to avoid death: both become
spiritual hypochondriacs.

No union was ever destroyed by a failure of romance. It is the loss of respect, not love, which ends a relationship.

Love, once present, never dies. It must be killed.

Sometimes we select markets–and trading styles–much as we choose romantic partners: by their ability to validate our deepest-held images of ourselves. Our choices generally succeed, for better or for worse.

Many a trader fears boredom more than loss, thereby experiencing the two in sequence. (more…)

Jesse Livermore: Original Trend Follower and Great Trader

  
  Education
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The unofficial biography of Jesse Livermore was Reminiscences of a Stock Operator published 1923. Below are selected quotes:

  • Another lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.
  • I told you I had ten thousand dollars when I was twenty, and my margin on that Sugar deal was over ten thousand. But I didn’t always win. My plan of trading was sound enough and won oftener than it lost. If I had stuck to it I’d have been right perhaps as often as seven out of ten times. In fact, I have always made money when I was sure I was right before I began. What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game- that is, to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play. There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. No man can always have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily- or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.
  • It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of his mistakes. They say there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.
  • There is nothing like losing all you have in the world for teaching you what not to do. And when you know what not to do in order not to lose money, you begin to learn what to do in order to win. Did you get that? You begin to learn!
  • I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, Well, you know this is a bull market! he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements- that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.
  • The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight.
  • ?the average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think. It is too much bother to have to count the money that he picks up from the ground.
  • To tell you about the first of my million dollar mistakes I shall have to go back to this time when I first became a millionaire, right after the big break of October, 1907. As far as my trading went, having a million merely meant more reserves. Money does not give a trader more comfort, because, rich or poor, he can make mistakes and it is never comfortable to be wrong. And when a millionaire is right his money is merely one of his several servants. Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong- not taking the loss- that is what does damage to the pocketbook and to the soul.
  • What I have told you gives you the essence of my trading system as based on studying the tape. I merely learn the way prices are most probably going to move. I check up my own trading by additional tests, to determine the psychological moment. I do that by watching the way the price acts after I begin.
  • Of all speculative blunders there are few worse than trying to average a losing game. My cotton deal proved it to the hilt a little later. Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit. That was so obviously the wise thing to do and was so well known to me that even now I marvel at myself for doing the reverse.
  • The loss of the money didn’t bother me. Whenever I have lost money in the stock market I have always considered that I have learned something; that if I have lost money I have gained experience, so that the money really went for a tuition fee. A man has to have experience and he has to pay for it.
  • In booms, which is when the public is in the market in the greatest numbers, there is never any need of subtlety, so there is no sense of wasting time discussing either manipulation or speculation during such times; it would be like trying to find the difference in raindrops that are falling synchronously on the same roof across the street. The sucker has always tried to get something for nothing, and the appeal in all booms is always frankly to the gambling instinct aroused by cupidity and spurred by a pervasive prosperity. People who look for easy money invariably pay for the privelege of proving conclusively that it cannot be found on this sordid earth. At first, when I listened to the accounts of old-time deals and devices I used to think that people were more gullible in the 1860’s and 70’s than in the 1900’s. But I was sure to read in the newspapers that very day or the next something about the latest Ponzi or the bust-up of some bucketing broker and about the millions of sucker money gone to join the silent majority of vanished savings.
  • There are men whose gait is far quicker than the mob’s. They are bound to lead- no matter how much the mob changes.

Trading Wisdom from -REMINISCENCES OF A STOCK OPERATOR.

  
  Education
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Of course there is always a reason for fluctuations, but the tape does not concern itself with the why and wherefore.
My plan of trading was sound enough and won oftener than it lost. If I had stuck to it I’d have been right perhaps as often as seven out of ten times.
What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game.
But there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. No man can always have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily or sufficient knowledge to make his. play an intelligent play.
The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall
Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages.
It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of all his mistakes. They say there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side. It took me longer to get that general principle fixed firmly in my mind than it did most of the more technical phases of the game of stock speculation.
My losses have taught me that I must not begin to advance until I am sure I shall not have to retreat. But if I cannot advance I do not move at all. I do not mean by this that a man should not limit his losses when he is wrong. He should. But that should not breed indecision.
I was still ignoring general principles; and as long as I did that I could not spot the exact trouble with my game.
I can’t tell you how it came to take me so many years to learn that instead of placing piking bets on what the next few quotations were going to be, my game was to anticipate what was going to happen in a big way.
Their specialty was trimming suckers who wanted to get rich quick.
I had to make a stake, but I also had to live while I was doing it.
I was twenty when I made my first ten thousand, and I lost that. But I knew how and why, because I traded out of season all the time; because when I couldn’t play according to my system, which was based on study and experience, I went in and gambled. I hoped to win, instead of knowing that I ought to win on form.
And when you know what not to do in order not to lose money, you begin to learn what to do in order to win. Did you get that? You begin to learn!
No diagnosis, no prognosis. No prognosis, no profit.
The average chart reader, however, is apt to become obsessed with the notion that the dips and peaks and primary and secondary movements are all there is to stock speculation. If he pushes his confidence to its logical limit he is bound to go broke.
The game of beating the market exclusively interested me from ten to three every day, and after three, the game of living my life.
I couldn’t afford anything that kept me from feeling physically and mentally fit.
I was acquiring the confidence that comes to a man from a professionally dispassionate attitude toward his own method of providing bread and butter for himself.
It taught me, little by little, the essential difference between betting on fluctuations and anticipating inevitable advances and declines, between gambling and speculating.
He knows all the don’ts that ever fell from the oracular lips of the old stagers excepting the principal one, which is: Don’t be a sucker!
It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!
That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight.
Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.
Without faith in his own judgment no man can go very far in this game.
It was that I gained confidence in myself and I was able finally to shake off the old method of trading. 

Great Hunter, Lousy Trader

  
  Education
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Making money in the market is an unnatural act. We humans are predators and hunters evolved to track game on the horizon of an African savanna. Modern humans are maybe 5 million years old, but civilization has been around for only 10,000 years. Our brains have not had time to make the adjustment. In the market, this means that if a stock has gone up, you believe it will continue. This is why market tops and bottoms see volume spikes. To make money, you have to go against these innate instincts. Some people are born with this ability, while others can only learn it through decades of training.

The Artist and the Trader

  
  Education
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Art is for the Artist. Words must be written, Songs must be sung. Visions must be seen. Not because they are valued; but because they are Ideas. The Artist understands that wealth, true wealth as opposed to simply being rich, stems from Ideas. Great Art is valued, if valued properly, because they express an Idea well. Not always because they express a grand idea.

There is the modern myth that the Artist must not be materialist or wealthy. Whereas the Trader, as an Artist, knows that all Artists are wealthy, but all are not rich. It would seem that a great Trader and the Artist share a similar soul.

For they both :

Take a loss. The modern myth largely stems from the Artist producing their best Ideas to bounce back from a loss. They both believe they can replace their losses with better Ideas.

Respect everyone. An Idea can come from anyone. Every trader has been on the wrong side of a trade against someone of much more limited means, brains and circumstances.

Generous souls. For if wealth comes from Ideas, Ideas can always flow. An Artist never will admit he is out of Ideas. Many only have one grand idea, but die thinking the next grand idea is around the corner.

There is never enough. If Ideas are wealth, Life is to be lived to its fullest. The trader that gives up simply to be rich and preserve their riches has given up on their Ideas. Like the Artist that has sold out, simply producing copies of his once great work. Their admitting that it was either great timing or luck; not skill and belief that their Ideas still matter.

Free souls. Comes from the empowerment of wealth coming from your thoughts.

Drawn to excess. Because Ideas are regenerative, its tempting to believe everything is. Like the young that are blind to time. Or the athlete that believes there is always another game, tomorrow.

On Trading Psychology

  
  Education
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From “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” by Edwin Lefevre, the 1923 classic pseudo-autobiography of legendary trader Jesse Livermore:

… I didn’t always win. My plan of trading was sound enough and won oftener than it lost. If I had stuck to it I’d have been right perhaps as often as seven out of ten times. In fact, I always made money when I was sure I was right before I began. What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game — that is, to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play. There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. No man can always have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily — or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.

Sometimes the best play is to not play at all. When playing the market, you have to let the opportunities come to you, and take advantage of them when the odds are in your favor. If you don’t, you’ll get very frustrated — and you’ll lose money.

Think Less & Keep It Simple

  
  Education
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Every once in awhile I read something from another trader who I respect that I really wish I wrote myself. Here’s one such example:

 “One of the most difficult things to get investors and traders to understand is that no matter how much they investigate an investment, they will probably do better if they did less. This is certainly counter-intuitive, but the way that our brains function almost guarantees that this will happen. This kind of failure also happens to those investors frequently regarded as the smartest. In essence, the more information that investors have, the more opportunity that they have to choose the misinformation that suits their emotional purposes.

 

Speculation is observation, pure and experiential. Thinking isn’t necessary and often just gets in the way. Yet everywhere we turn, we read and hear opinion after opinion and explanation on top of explanation which claim to connect the dots between economic cause and market effect. Most of the marketplace is long on rationale and explanation and short on methods. (more…)

Have A Plan

  
  Education
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It’s interesting to see that at a time like this, a time of economic concern, a time of confusion, that many people (including traders) get caught up in information that doesn’t serve them in any way helpful.  What do I mean by this?  Well, if you look at most financial news networks or most financial news services out there, how often of the time are they serving us information that is helpful in any way to our trading?  I listen and talk to traders on a daily basis and it amazes me how much overwhelming economic information they know.  However, when I ask them how it’s serving their trading, I never seem to get a clear answer.

I’ve been lucky enough to talk to some of the most successful legendary traders out there and really pick their brains to see how they think.  If you’ve ever had the chance to read Market Wizards and New Market Wizards, there is some real wisdom in those books that most people don’t seem to pick up on.  In New Market Wizards, Jack Shwager interviews a very successful trader.  During the interview he asks him:

“Can you tell who will be a successful trader and who will not?”

The traders response is very interesting.  He goes on to say:

“Yes, on a less technical level, I can say that after years of studying traders, the best predictor of success is simply whether the person is improving with time and experience.  Many traders unconsciously acknowledge their lack of progress by continually jumping from one system or methodology to another, never gaining true proficiency in any.
As a result, these people end up with one year of experience, six times, instead of six years of experience.  In contrast, the superior traders gravitate to a single approach-the specific approach is actually not important-and become extremely adapt to it.”

Now, most traders would read that and think nothing of it.  But look at how he talks about how most traders jump from system to system, never really gaining true proficiency in any.  This is something I have come to observe as well within most traders.  When I try to understand why this is happening it seems that it’s the same reason each time.

As traders learn more and more about different indicators and patterns  in the market, they become more and more desperate to find this “holy grail” system that will produce some astronomical winning results.  Not only that, but they continuously jump from doing one thing to another.  One day they’re trading moving averages, the next day they’re trading a bear wedge pattern, the next day a double top; they’re just all over the place.  Why is this?  It goes back to the quote up top.  Instead of focusing on ONE methodology and mastering it, what happens is as soon as a losing streak comes along or a trade doesn’t work out the way they would have liked, they begin to think that something is wrong with the system, when in fact the real problem is the trader himself. (more…)

Inspiration

  
Education, Life
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THINK IT080907_writing.PNG

“What the mind of man can Conceive and Believe, it can Achieve.” – Napoleon Hill

 “You become what you think about all day long” – Ralph Waldo Emerson

“You are today where your thoughts have brought you, you will be tomorrow where your thoughts take you.” – James Allen

“Do not think of knocking out another person’s brains because he differs in opinion from you. It would be as rational to knock yourself on the head because you differ from yourself 10 years ago.” – Horace Mann, educator – How many traders feel this way? 

BELIEVE IT080907_notebook.PNG 
“You can have anything you want. There are no limits to your possibilities.” – unknown
“Whether you believe you can do a thing or not, you are right.” – Henry Ford (more…)

3 things that will kill your trading success.

  
  Education
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Not having a plan. Get a plan, who cares if it is bad, start with something. You can build off of it and refine it. You have to be willing to spend the time to make the plan yours. You do not start anything without some level of planning. Trading is hard; your brain spends a lot of time in fast forward, affecting your memory. You can slow it down by having a plan and increase your brains ability to remember.

Thinking trading is easy. It is not, there are times when it can be slightly less difficult after a lot of time, patience, and hard work. When I think to myself “this is easy” I lose my sharpness. My focus is adverted from my goal. I will lose. It may not be on that trade but maybe the next.

Thinking you have finished. There is only one thing that every trade is guaranteed to give me: a chance to learn about myself, the market, and the interaction between the two. You have to be willing to be relentless in your learning. It will enable you to learn the cheapest.

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