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US House and Senate negotiators have reached agreement on emergency coronavirus bill

  
  Analysis
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$8.3 billion to combat the coronavirus

The US House and Senate negotiators have reached an agreement on the emergency coronavirus bill. This according to House appropriations spokesman.

  • Total appropriations is for $8.3 billion to combat coronavirus
  • Bill to include 3 billion for research and development of vaccines, therapies and diagnostics
  • more than $300 million to help pay vaccine cause for those who cannot afford it
The House to vote on the funding today.
Meanwhile the IMF’ Kristalina Georgieva is out saying that the IMF has dedicated $50 billion to fund for virus help.
She adds:
  • expects growth this year will be below last year
  • central bank leaders and finance ministers are focused on what can do
  • great attention on liquidity to avoid credit crunch
  • nations are committed to coordinate on reaction to virus

China trade body says some customers have stopped accepting China metal products amid coronavirus outbreak

  
  Analysis
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China trade body: some customers in Russia, Turkey, Middle East and North Africa have stopped accepting deliveries of China metal products amid coronavirus outbreak

More:
  • some overseas customers, including from India, ask China metal firms to pay damages for failure to deliver products on time

Are Asian stocks due further falls post Lunar New year? Probably, yes.

  
  Analysis
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Coronavirus has a fear factor

According to a quick google search around 50,000+ people die from the flu each year. It is mainly the old or the already unwell who are most susceptible to the virus. In 2003 the total number of SARS death was 700+ from a total sample of 8000+ cases. Here is a quote from the World Health Organisation on a person’s chances of dieing from SARS during the outbreak if they caught the disease.

The likelihood of dying from SARS in a given area has been shown to depend on the profile of the cases, including the age group most affected and the presence of underlying disease. Based on data received by WHO to date, the case fatality ratio is estimated to be less than 1% in persons aged 24 years or younger, 6% in persons aged 25 to 44 years, 15% in persons aged 45 to 64 years, and greater than 50% in persons aged 65 years and older

So far, 17 people have died due to the Coronavirus and this is a concern. The total number of coronavirus cases is rising all the time and the fear factor alone should weigh on equity markets. People will not want to travel around if they can avoid it as the disease spreads. I was surprised that on January 22 the Asian markets closed higher, even though the case load doubled. The Jan 23 response made much more sense to me in the Asian markets as they fell sharply lower ahead of the Chinese New Year Holidays. Sadly, it now seems almost inevitable that we will have a sharp increase in cases over this travelling time.
Triple top in Nikkei 
Coronavirus has a fear factor

A triple top in the Nikkei makes an attractive level for shorts if and when the coronavirus fear factor takes hold. Furthermore, it is still too early for folks to fully grasp the implications of the disease and unknowns remain.

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