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Moody’s on UK banks outlook

  
  Analysis
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Via reuters

Via reuters
  • UK large domestic bank’s assets quality will take hit from COVID-19
  • UK’s bank capital to remain strong
  • UK domestic banks profitability to recover from 2021
  • Capiltilization will remain robust
  • Negative impact of COVID-19 will impact creditworthiness in line with duration and extent of crisis
  • Capital levels will remain stable over the 2020-2022 period broadly in line with end of 2019 levels.

Paul Tudor Jones is one of the great macro traders of all time but he’s ‘a slave to the tape’

  
Analysis, Education
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How does Paul Tudor Jones see the world now?

Paul Tudor Jones is one of the great investors of all time and he’s renowned for macro calls. His latest market outlook highlights the coming waves of direct debt monetization that will reshape the economies and financial markets of the world.
“There will be many assets that will move as a result of this money creation. So what is an investor to do? Traditional hedges like gold have done well, and we expect investors to continue to seek refuge in this safe asset. One thing I have learned over time is the best thing to do is let market price action guide your decision-making and then try to understand the fundamentals as they become more evident and comprehensible,” he writes in a note with Lorenzo Giorgianni.
That’s an odd thing for one of the great macro traders of all time to say, but if you look back over his (rare) public comments, it’s a familiar theme. Here’s what he said back in 2009:

(more…)

Your guide to China’s ‘big bang’ 2020.100% foreign ownership in financial industry.

  
  Analysis
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China will accelerate opening up of its commercial banking and securities sectors, among others, next year.

For example:
  • foreign insurers can apply to set up 100%-owned units offering life insurance (this segment accounts for three-quarters of the Chinese insurance market)
  • from January 1 overseas firms will be allowed to set up their own entities to trade futures
  • offshore firms will be able to apply for licenses to start wholly owned mutual fund management firms in April
And, plenty more here at the link

Moody’s cut German banking outlook to negative from stable as profitability weakens

  
  Analysis
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Deposits are proving to be costly for German banks

Germany

Moody’s just revised their outlook for the German banking industry to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’, as they expect German banks’ profitability and overall creditworthiness to weaken in a low interest rate environment.
It’s not exactly blockbuster news but again, it just reaffirms the fact that Germany is resigned to some troubling times ahead as the economy continues to slow down further. In that regard, the lack of fixed income alternatives is also hurting banks.

How to Spot a Market Top

  
Analysis, Education
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This is via an article in the Wall Street Journal title: How to Spot a Market Top

It begins generically enough with the sort of stuff you hear all the time:
  • A da Vinci sells for $450 million
  • one bitcoin is worth $7,700
  • 99-year-old Austria issues a 100-year bond at an interest rate of 2.1%
  • Clearly there is too much money in the world. That isn’t new, but how long can it last?
  • With central banks scaling back stimulus, investments that appear attractive when interest rates are near, or below, zero suddenly look silly.
Then, some, errr … wisdom:
  • The end may come soon, or the current investing nirvana could go on.
K, thanks.
But, then it gets better:…  walks through the risks and likely scenarios for markets in the coming months. It is ungated (I think), co check it out while we await Europe/UK action:
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