Archives of “bailout” tag

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The Devil's Dictionary Of Financial Terms

  
  Education
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dictionary1agency, n. A criminally negligent organization that purchased and securitized mortgages; a criminally negligent organization that rated mortgages and mortgage securities. The agencies were late in downgrading the Agencies.

 

 bailout, n. A notorious regressive tax; the public underwriting of stupid bets made by overpaid morons. Can you believe their bonus pool was $16 billion a year after the bailout?

bail out, v. To selflessly save the global economy from depression and mass unemployment. If we hadn’t bailed out AIG, the unemployment rate would be 25% right now!

bubble, n. Part of the dual mandate; the monetary policy goal of the Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China.

carry trade, n.  A financial proposition that concludes with its adherents supine, carried out on a stretcher.

CDS, n. The simultaneous purchase of kindling, lighter fluid, matches, and fire insurance on your neighbour’s house.

conspiracy, n. The only possible explanation for certain types of irrational price action. There’s a government conspiracy to support the stock market; how else could it have rallied 70% since March? A crackpot theory held by nutjobs who can’t admit when they’re wrong. Have those conspiracy theory whackos never heard of an oversold bounce before?

credit, n. An asset universally reviled by financiers during a crisis and claimed by politicians after it.

crisis, n. A frequently occurring one-in-a-lifetime event, generally deemed impossible by those under the age of 28.

exotic, adj. Strange; unusual; rarely-seen. I didn’t think it was possible to lose $200 million in fifteen minutes, but the exotics book just did.

hedge, n. A line of closely-grouped shrubberies; a clever way of adding correlation and volatility risk to one’s portfolio.

hedge, adj. A type of investment fund generally accepted to be dedicated to the proposition of ignoring hedges of every description.

house, n. An abode; an investment. Formerly an asset, now a liability.

leverage, n. The act of turning your problem into our problem.

mine, adj. Trader-speak for a desire to make a purchase. 50 EUR/USD mine, shagger. The sole source of responsibility (and thus the rewards) for a successful trade.

option, n. A financial instrument that offers multiple ways of losing money. If being long vega doesn’t kill you , the decay will.

quantitative easing, n. An unorthodox monetary policy that targets increases in high-powered money rather than interest rates; the act of throwing sufficient sums at the financial system to ensure that the stock market starts to rally.

restraint, n. An undesirable spending habit rarely observed in public; an offense punishable by a targeted taxation regime.

risk, n. A binary analytical framework for the simpleminded; can be either off or on. A characteristic of investment that was largely forgotten in the mid-Noughties

SAFE, n. An organization dedicated to perpetuating dangerous global imbalances.

sales, n. The art of separating a customer from his money.

seat, n. The world’s most valuable furniture; a place at a market-making franchise desk at a bank. Fred made $15 million quoting prices last year, but the seat is worth $25 million!

subprime, n. An ingenious method of granting credit to the poor, thereby narrowing the wealth gap between the classes. Dick Fuld lost $650 million after Lehman’s subprime bets went sour.

volatile, adj. The temperament of your average trader on a bad day; the likely future state of financial markets after long periods of low interest rates.

Warren Buffett, n. Ebenezer Scrooge with better PR.

yacht, n. A monetary black hole; an aquatic trophy rarely seen in close proximity to banking customers.

yours, adj. Trader-speak for a desire to make a sale. 500 e-minis, yours!! Whose responsibility the average bank, insurance company, or housing agency thinks it is to pay for the financial crisis.

Spain Sells 3 Year Bonds At 3.717%, 119 bps Higher Than Prior Auction

  
Analysis, Education
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For a demonstration of the unsustainable course that European sovereign funding is on, look no further than Spain, where earlier the government auctioned off €2.468 billion in three year notes for a whopping 3.717%. The bid to cover was 2.27 compared to 2.16 in October, and it was reported that foreign buyers bid above 60% of the auction (which means the ECB funded domestic banks bought about 40%). However, the same issued priced at 2.527% at the last sale on Oct. 7, a 119 bps difference. Still it wasn’t all bad, considering the bond had traded at almost 4% in recent days. As Reuters reports: “Analysts and bond market players had predicted a leap of as much as 2 percentage points in yields, but Madrid’s situation has been helped by mounting expectations the European Central Bank will step up extraordinary measures to contain the crisis.” The problem for Spain is that it has minimized the amount of debt it is issuing during turbulent times: “The Treasury had cut the amount of bonds on offer in order to trim financing costs as it faces down market doubts on whether it can bring down its deficit due to sluggish economic growth and persistent concerns it might need to bailout its debt-laden banks.” And the problem for the ECB is that it most likely, as many analysts are predicting, will not announce anything of substance, as otherwise the ECB will have to monetize up to €1.5 trillion in total debt and interest through the end of 2011. The result for the EUR will inevitably be disastrous in either case, and if in 25 minutes JCT indeed announces nothing, look for all those who bid up the bond auction earlier to be tearing out their hair as the 3 Year promptly passes 4%.

Light, Taming the Beast

  
  Education
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Larry Light’s Taming the Beast: Wall Street’s Imperfect Answers to Making Money (Wiley, 2011) is perfect summer reading fare. The author, a financial reporter and editor, is a skilled storyteller. In this book he explores a range of investment strategies and instruments, traces their development, and in the process profiles some of the best-known investors and academics.

He covers value investing (Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett), stocks (Jeremy Siegel), indexes (John Bogle), bonds (Bill Gross), growth investing (Thomas Rowe Price), international investing (John Templeton), real estate (Donald Trump), alternatives, asset allocation, short selling (James Chanos), hedge funds (Alfred Winslow Jones and Steve Cohen), and behaviorism (Daniel Kahneman and his followers).

Light’s thesis is that “investing success does not come in one flavor” and that “the trick is to be sufficiently flexible to dip into any or all of [the approaches he describes], but by the same token, to know their limitations.” (p. 254) He does a good job of spelling out these limitations. Even for more experienced investors who are well aware of many of these limitations, Little’s prose is so quick-paced that the book should be read, not skimmed. (more…)

IMF/EU Bails Out Greece (€110 billion), Papandreou Text, Greek Finance Minister, Riots (Videos)

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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Greece got a bailout Sunday from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and EU (European Union).  There will be harsh austerity measures (increase in taxes, lower public sector wages, pension reform), read this Reuters article: Greek cabinet to discuss tough new austerity steps and listen to the Greek Financia Minister speak below.  Specifically on the bailout, WSJ reported that,”Greece reached a historic deal with other euro-zone countries and the International
Monetary Fund for a three-year, €110 billion ($146.5 billion) bailout”. [full WSJ article] The bailout also includes a €10 Billion support fund for banks (Bloomberg).  Find the full text of Papandreou addressing his Cabinet on the bailout here. Below are videos from RussiaToday, Reuters and EUX.tv featuring Greek Finance Minister Giorgos papaconstantinou outlining the austerity package, riot videos and more.


 

Will this be a short financial capitulation event transferred to main street in Greece?

Is the U.K. the Next Greece?

  
Analysis, Economy, Education, Video
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A day after the EU has come to terms on a bailout to save Greece, this Bloomberg TV analysis is pretty interesting. First, they point out that the rates Greece got were still pretty punitive, despite the fact that they were below market rates. But even more interesting is the notion that the U.K., not Portugal, Spain, or Ireland, might be the next economy to be forced to the brink because they’re not part of the Euro Zone and don’t have the partners to bail them out.



World Bank Sees Dollar Reserve Status Ending Over Next Decade

  
Analysis, Education
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 GDH-MainMessages

In a report released yesterday titled “Multipolarity: The New Global Economy“, that other “bailout” organization, the World Bank, says that due to the developing world’s pronounced greater growth curve through 2025 (expected to grow at 4.7% compared to 2.3% for the developed countries), the outcome will be that “The balance of global growth and investment will shift to developing or emerging economies.” More importantly, as the FT summarized, a “different international monetary system will gradually evolve, wiping out the US dollar’s position as the world’s main reserve currency.”  As a result of these “inevitabilities” (which will be interested to see how they are attained considering according to a recent report, the world will need to double its debt to double it GDP, so where all this new debt will come from we don’t really know), there are three potential scenarios: i) A status quo centered on the US dollar, ii) A system with the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) as the main international currency, iii) A multicurrency system. And while this obviously covers every possible outcome so absolutely no value added there, the WB is focused on outcome iii and believes that the dollar will gradually shift away from its current position of reserve currency prominence. This is not surprising: after all it is none other than World Bank president Robert Zoellick who recently predicted a return to the gold standard and an end to USD hegemony. Our advice to Bob: stay away from penthouse suites at the Sofitel. (more…)

Crisis Moves to Hungary?

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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Sovereign debt worries in Europe have been elevated for a couple of months now, and today Hungary moved into the crosshairs.  Sovereign debt default risk as measured by 5-year CDS prices has spiked for Hungary and the countries surrounding it today, but default risk for this region still remains well below levels seen in late 2008 and early 2009.  The first two charts below of 5-year CDS for Austria and Hungary since 2008 highlights this.  Greece and Portugal default risk remains elevated as well, but at the moment it is still down from its recent peaks.  France also remains elevated, but it is still below highs seen in early 2009.  The same can’t be said for Spain, however.  Spain default risk reached a new crisis high today, taking out levels seen prior to the trillion Euro bailout.  And Spain matters much more than Hungary.

It Would be A Mistake To Think That The Bailout Is Actually A Bailout Of Greece

  
Economy, Education
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The ECB has talked more hawkish than the Federal Reserve but basically they are all money printers. Some are better at it, and faster and have more efficient machines the others are slower but basically central banks, they run a print and print.

And it would be a mistake to think that the bailout is actually a bailout of Greece. Greece is a write-off. You can`t have the kind of debt Greece has with Olive Oil income. They have no industries to speak of. They have shipping but the shipping industy does not pay taxes in Greece.

So basically the bailout is actually a bailout of the ECB itself because they already have a lot of paper of Spain, portugal and Greece in their portfolio and a bailout of the banks in Europe. They lent money to Greece, Spain and Portugal, so they are all in the same boat.

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