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OPEC+ said to reach agreement to reduce output target by 500k bpd

  
Analysis, Crude
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OPEC+ ministers are said to have agreed to the deal

The closed session meeting is still taking place but as ever the case, the decision is already being leaked out. In any case, the 500k bpd additional cut here is what has been anticipated over the past two days.

But all this does is just bring the target level closer to actual production levels seen throughout the whole of this year. Oil stays slightly pressured with Brent near lows just above $63 and WTI likewise just above $58.

Morgan Stanley fires four FX traders after concealing $100-$140m loss

  
  Analysis
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Traders may have mismarked emerging markets trades

Morgan Stanley has fired or placed on leave four FX traders suspected of mismarking trades linked to emerging market currencies, Bloomberg reports.
The New York and London-based traders are part of a probe into mismarked trades that concealed a loss of $100-$140 million and is related to options trades.

The Dow Rose 55 Points Because the U.S. and China Are Talking Trade Turkey

  
Analysis, US Market
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All three main U.S. stock indexes closed with modest gains on Tuesday, adding to Monday’s record highs. U.S.-China trade negotiations continued ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, as representatives from both countries made another high-level call on Tuesday. Consumer confidence slipped again in November, but still remains at a relatively high level. In today’s After the Bell, we…

  • watch U.S. and China negotiators push trade talks a step further
  • gauge Trump’s position on Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movements;
  • and check on how American consumers feel in November.

Time to Be Thankful

Stocks edged up again on Tuesday as trade negotiators from the U.S. and China hold another high-level phone call to resolve core issues. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 55.21 points, or 0.20%, to close at 28,121.68. The S&P 500 added 6.88 points, or 0.22%, to finish at 3140.52, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 15.44 points, or 0.18%, to close at 8647.93.

Overnight :Nasdaq the sole record maker

  
Analysis, US Market
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S&P and Dow close lower

After a few days where the major indices all closed at record levels, today only the Nasdaq is closing with gains. The Dow led the way to the downside.
Home Depot is weighing on the Dow after revenues and forward guidance disappointed today. The price is down $-13.06 or -5.47%.   Home Depot has the 4th highest component weight in the Dow at 5.78%, hence the big impact.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index fell -1.87 points or -0.06% at 3120.17. The high price reached 3127.64. The low extended to 3113.47
  • Nasdaq index rose 20.722 points or 0.24% at 8570.66. The high reached 8589.758. The low extended to 8536.727.
  • Dow index fell -102.37 points or -0.37% at 27933.85. The high reached 28090.21. The low extended to 27894.52
Some winner for the day included:
  • AMD, +3.43%
  • Tesla, +2.75%
  • First Solar, +2.71%
  • Broadcom, +2.12%
  • Amgen, +1.77%
  • Visa, +1.73%
  • Mastercard, +1.58%
  • Intuitive Surgical, +1.52%
  • Intuit, +1.41%
  • Adobe, +1.20%
  • Pfizer, +1.18%
Some of the biggest losers included:
  • Slack, -8.40%
  • Home Depot, -5.47%
  • AT&T, -4.04%
  • Beyond Meat -2.96%
  • Qualcomm, -2.79%
  • Micron, -2.57%
  • Nvidia, -2.01%
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb, -2.0%
  • Chevron, -1.77%
  • Phillip Morris, -1.52%
  • FedEx, -1.30%

Near-deal from May now being used as benchmark on how much tariffs to be rolled back – report

  
  Analysis
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US contemplates removing more tariffs than anticipated

China and the US are discussing linking the size of tariff rollbacks to the preliminary terms set in the deal that failed in May, according to Bloomberg who cites two people familiar.
The White House is still debating the precise percentage internally but the report says a deal would at least include removing the Sept tariffs and eliminating the planned Dec tariffs.
China has demanded that all tariffs imposed after May be removed immediately and those from beforehand be lifted gradually.
The report says that some of the $250B in tariffs imposed in 2018 are under consideration to be rolled back and that opposition to the move has softened. Overall, the White House is looking at the tariffs holistically and debating on whether to remove somewhere between 35% and 60%. Those percentages fall inline with what percentage of the overall deal Phase One accomplishes.
For reference, the US currently has tariffs on $360B in goods. That number was $250B before the May talks fell apart. On May 10, the US also raised the tariff rate on those $250B in goods to 25% from 10%.

Overall this report reflects a generally positive take and shows that both sides are working on a deal and perhaps closer than anticipated. This is the first indication they’re working off the May text but it’s also a hint that the US may remove more tariffs than anticipated. It would be a great signal for markets if anything from May or earlier was lowered.

NASDAQ, S&P and Dow all close at record highs

  
Analysis, US Market
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Late rally kicks the S&P into positive territory

the major indices all closed positive on the day and that means record closes. The S&P was the closest at not reaching the milestone, but some late buying kicked the index into positive territory.  The NASDAQ and Dow had an easier time of it.
The unofficial closes are showing:
  • The S&P index +1.37 points or 0.04% at 3121.84. The high reached 3124.17. The low extended to 3112.06
  • The NASDAQ index +9.109 points or 0.11% at 8549.93. The high reached 8559.78. The low extended to 8503.625
  • The Dow close up 530.52 points or 0.11% at 28035.43. The high reached 28040.97. The low extended to 27969.24.
The major indices open lower and was under early pressure, but started to come back after word Pres. Trump and Fed Chair Powell had a private meeting in the private quarters of the White House (with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin).    Concerns about China were replaced by hopes that the Fed Chair might be convinced to cut rates down the road.
Disney continues to be a boost to the Dow. It rose $2.98 or 2.06%.
Other gainers today included:
  • Lyft, +4.37%
  • Nvidia, +3.99%
  • AMD, +3.5%
  • Netflix, +2.58%
  • Chipotle, +2.22%
  • Square, +1.59%
  • UnitedHealth, +1.3%
  • Facebook, +1.22%
  • Nike, +1.18%
  • Procter & Gamble, +1.14%
  • Walmart, +1.1%
Some underperformers today included:
  • Under Armour, -2.59%
  • Fiat, -2.31%
  • Schlumberger, -1.92%
  • Chevron, -1.71%
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb, -1.64%
  • Beyond Meat, -1.26%
  • Caterpillar, -1.2%
  • Gilead, -1.14%

US President Trump says US farmers will receive another round of cash subsidies

  
  Analysis
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The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced back on Friday that it’ll be making a scheduled subsidy payment to US farmers in the week ahead.

  • the payments will be the second part of a three part $16 billion aid package announced in May to compensate farmers for the U.S.-China trade war
Trump claiming credit:
  • “Our great Farmers will recieve (sic) another major round of ‘cash,’ compliments of China Tariffs, prior to Thanksgiving” 
  • “The smaller farms and farmers will be big beneficiaries. In the meantime, and as you may have noticed, China is starting to buy big again. Japan deal DONE. Enjoy!”
The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced back on Friday that it'll be making a scheduled subsidy payment to US farmers in the week ahead.

Everyone is out there pretending like there isn’t a looming old-and-broke crisis

  
  Analysis
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No one ever talks about it

savings rate
A white paper from the World Economic Forum in June got almost no traction. It addressed a problem that’s almost universally ignored.
With increasing responsibility placed on the individual to prepare for retirement, we have found that most are simply not saving enough.
Most developed economies (and many emerging ones) are headed toward a demographic crisis. We know that aging populations will sap growth but few are talking about how elderly people will run out of savings.
In Canada where I live, they estimate that half the population will run out of money 10 years to early. Half. That’s in one of the richest countries in the world and one of the few that has a fully-funded social security system.
Retirement gapThe problem is worsening by the day because there is no reasonable safe yield for savers. Take someone who retired 20 years ago at 60. To make an overly-simplistic point, they may have saved $500,000 and invested in a 20-year Treasury bond. They yielded nearly 7% at the time. That was a manageable $35,000 per year. Today if that bond comes due, they would be lucky to get 2%. That’s $10,000 per year, assuming they haven’t had to dig into the nest-egg to fund the rising cost of living.
The point is, even those were prudent are getting squeezed. If you wanted to retire on $35,000 today invested in Treasury notes, you would need to save $2 million. I can scarcely believe that 1% of Millennials will hit that target. Yet retirement armageddon is coming much sooner.
In the Canadian example supporting half the population with a poverty-line level of $22,000 for 10 years would cost $4 trillion. That’s six times the current national debt, according to the Globe and Mail. There have been some efforts to deal with it here but they’re mostly fanciful and assume people will be able to work until age 72.
In the US, it’s much worse. Social Security is wildly underfunded and there’s seemingly no appetite to fix it in Washington. We’re just going to pretend like this isn’t a looming crisis. Like it or not, working people are going to be paying for this.
As the Globe says:
Years from now, when we’re struggling to support all those seniors who have run out of money, people will look back on this moment and wonder why we didn’t act more decisively in the face of a looming fiscal disaster.
We’re going to sleepwalk into this one and it will inevitably mean soaring government debt. Combine that with endless quantitative easing and you have the recipe for a race to the currency bottom. It’s a scenario where only gold and hard assets come out ahead.

Record closes for all three US indices to end the week

  
Analysis, Global Indices, US Market
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The Dow above 28000 for the first time ever.  Indices close at record all time high levels.

The major indices are closing at records. The Dow hits 28,000 for the 1st time ever and looks like my close above that level as well. The S&P index and NASDAQ index are also trading at record levels and closed at the highs.  It is hard to get any better than that.
The closing numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index up 23.73 points or 0.77% at 3120.37. That is the high for the day. The low for the day was down at 3104.60
  • The NASDAQ index is up 61.81 points or 0.73% at 8540.82. That too is the high for the day. The low for the day reached 8506.79.
  • The Dow close up 222.45 points or 0.80% at 28004.69. Yes. it too is at the high for the day.  The low for the day reached 27843.54.
Below are the percentage changes of the major North American and European indices today (along with their low to high ranges).
The Dow above 28000 for the first time ever.  Indices close at record all time high levels.  

For the week, the Dow was the biggest gainer of a sample of major indices. The Shanghai composite index was the biggest decliner at -2.52%.

The weekly percentage changes for the major global stock indices
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