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OPEC+ close to dropping the idea of an emergency meeting – report

  
Analysis, Crude
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So much for that hope

OPEC+ is close to dropping the idea of an emergency meeting this month and will stick with March meeting dates, according to delegates cited by Bloomberg. They say the Saudis may still push for hte Feb meeting.
Oil has climbed this week for the first time since Jan 3…at least for now. The March contract just expired.
So much for that hope

European shares close mostly lower but off lows for the day

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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German DAX, -0.16%, France’s CAC, -0.36%

The major European indices are now close for the day and indices are closing lower but well off the lows for the day. The provisional closes are showing:

  • German DAX, -0.16%. It was as low as -1.26%
  • France’s CAC, -0.36%. It was as low as -1.25%
  • UKs FTSE 100, -1.25%. It was as low as -1.69%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.16%. It was as low as -1.47%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB bucked the trend and rose by 0.19% That is up from a low of -1.10%.
In debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are mostly lower with the exception of the UK. The ranges and changes are currently showing:
The European 10 year yields are mostly lowerIn other markets:
  • Spot gold is trading up $10.07 or 0.64% $1576.09
  • WTI crude oil is up $0.27 or 0.53% of $51.45
in the US equity market, the earlier declines in stocks have been mostly raised in the broad indices at least. The Dow is still negative:
  • S&P index is down -1.5 points or -0.5% at 3378. The hi reached 3380.36
  • NASDAQ index is unchanged at 9725.40. The high reached 9732.87.
  • Dow is down 78 points or -0.27% at 29471.4.
In the US debt market, yields are off lows but still remain modestly lower on the day.
US yields are still lower but off the lowest levels
The ranking of the major currencies shows the GBP is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest.

IEA sees fall in Q1 oil demand, the first quarterly drop in more than a decade

  
Analysis, Crude
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IEA estimates Q1 oil demand to fall by 435k bpd year-on-year

Oil
  • Q2 pglobal oil demand set to grow by 1.2 mil bpd
  • Assuming that economic activity returns progressively to normal
  • Cuts 2020 oil demand growth forecast by 365k bpd to 825k bpd
The changes to the forecasts and estimates are due to the coronavirus outbreak impact as IEA sees the widespread shutdown of the Chinese economy weighing heavily on demand – more so than OPEC – but they estimate a quicker recovery in the coming quarters.
That said, the agency says that the impact of the coronavirus outbreak will be felt by the oil market throughout the year and it is “hard to be precise about the impact” now.
Back to the headline reading, IEA had previously forecast a growth of 800k bpd in Q1 compared to a year earlier but now expect a contraction of 435k bpd instead – the first contraction since the global financial crisis back in 2009.

OPEC+ said to be considering additional 500k bpd oil output cut due to virus impact

  
  Analysis
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Reuters reports, citing two unnamed OPEC sources on the matter

The sources say that most OPEC members agree on the need to cut oil output further and that they are considering to have a meeting on 14-15 February now. Just one to keep in mind as such a move may provide some relief to oil prices in the near-term.

That said, once again it will be an issue on compliance to see how effective these cuts are. Oil is getting a bit of a pop on the headlines, with WTI crude now up 0.4% to $51.80.

World Health Organization: Declares coronvirus a public health emergency

  
  Analysis
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WHO declares coronvirus a public health emergency

World Health Organization
  • Declares coronvirus a public health emergency
  • This is not a vote of no-confidence in China
  • does not recommend limiting trade and movement to to China virus outbreak
  • our greatest concern is the potential for the virus to spread to countries with weaker health systems
  • panel almost unanimously concluded that coronavirus is a global emergency
  • China has done tremendous things to limit the spread of the virus to other countries
  • never seen this type of mobilization in my life that that was being executed in China
  • Believes that the measures that China is taking will ‘reverse the tide’
  • On China WHO says ‘I have seen the capacity and I believe they will control this outbreak assumes possible’
Although the declaration of the coronavirus as a public health emergency, the officials from the World Health Organization are gushing about the China response to the virus, it’s containment and seem not to be concerned about the spread in China or in countries that are acting responsibly. Once again the biggest concern is countries with weaker health systems.

The price of of equities spike higher before the announcement then fell back down. We are currently trading near mid range of that volatile range.

Gold is moving off high levels as well currently trades at $1580.37. It is still up $3.70 on the day
In the forex market, the USDJPY has moved above back above its 100 day moving average as the up and downs continue in the pair off of news headlines.

World Health Organization to send international experts to China as soon as possible

  
  Analysis
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World Health Organization on China

The World Health Organization is on the wires saying:
  • WHO has agreed with China that they would send international experts to China as soon as possible to boost understanding and guide global response to the coronavirus outbreak
  • WHO says a better understanding of the transmissibility and severity of the virus is urgently required to guide other countries on appropriate measures
  • It can reconvene its emergency committee on coronavirus on very short notice as needed. Its members are on standby and being informed of developments

What’s wrong with the picture if the World Health Organization has to pander to China during a potential buyers outbreak?

WHO chief has met with China president Xi on coronavirus outbreak – spokesman

  
  Analysis
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WHO chief, Tedros Adhanom, is in China this week to discuss ways of containing the virus outbreak

The spokesman also said that Tedros has met up with top Chinese officials and discussed measures to protect Chinese and foreigners in areas affected by the coronavirus. They are also said to have discussed possible alternatives to evacuations.

Adding that Tedros did not travel to any place outside of Beijing and that the WHO emergency committee is being ‘kept in the loop’ about the situation.
Tedros is also coming under quite a bit of flak after the WHO previously described the virus risk as being “moderate” over the weekend before admitting to their mistake and correcting the risk to “very high in China and at a regional level, and high at a global level”.
It still doesn’t look like they will declare the virus as a public health emergency it seems.

How coronavirus will impact oil markets – OPEC considering production cuts

  
Analysis, Crude
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The terrible human toll continues to increase.

Taking a look at oil though, this via Platts (S&P Global Platts is an energy and commodities information house).
Latest (in brief):
  • forecasting a drop of 200,000 b/d in oil demand for the next two to three months, reflecting roughly 15% of the expected oil demand growth in 2020
  • If the coronavirus is as bad as the Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003, oil demand could fall by 700,000-800,000 b/d, reflecting more than half of the expected demand growth for 2020
  • OPEC members are considering deeper production cuts, or extending their existing deal, in response to a slump in oil prices, according to a source in the group.”The next two weeks are very critical for not only the oil market but the global economy,” the OPEC source said Monday, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Bolding above is mine.
oil markets - OPEC said to be considering production cuts

The ‘Big 4’ Cryptocurrencies to trade

  
Analysis, BITCOIN
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What you need to know when trading Cryptocurrencies

EagleFX 1
The popularity of Cryptocurrency is on the rise and more and more skeptics are investing in digital assets each day. With people losing trust in central banks, coupled with the allure of investing in a digital currency which could appreciate, these factors have contributed to an industry boom.

What is even more exciting is the options available surrounding Cryptocurrencies nowadays. In the past, investors would simply buy a coin and wait/hope for the value to increase whilst running the risk of having value wiped out of an investment in a volatile market. This is avoidable now thanks to Crypto trading. Much like traditional Forex trading, Crypto enthusiasts can now trade on the projected performance of a coin without necessarily purchasing that asset.

The option of trading Crypto can be far more appealing than investing which comes with constantly monitor price performance. Thanks to leveraged trading on broker platforms, traders can concentrate on: going long and short on a range of Cryptocurrencies opposed to just investing and HODL-ING.

In this article, we will explore some of the major Cryptocurrencies which will suit day traders, scalpers, and swing traders. First of all, let’s consider some factors which contribute to a good Cryptocurrency to trade

Trade over 30 Cryptocurrency pairs with access to leverage of up to 1:100 for digital currency at new broker EagleFX. (more…)

World Health Organization: Delays decision on whether to declare coronavirus an int’l emergency

  
  Analysis
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They will meet tomorrow.

The World Health Organization director General Tedros says:
  • decision on whether to declare coronavirus outbreak and international emergency until Thursday
  • The organization will meet tomorrow
  • Coronavirus is an evolving and complex situation.
  • Appreciates cooperation from Chinese Pres. Xi and prime minister Li
  • Our team is on the ground in China as we speak to investigate the outbreak and get more information
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