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S&P and Dow close at record levels at year end

  
Analysis, US Market
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Nasdaq the big winner in 2020

The S&P and Dow are closing at record levels at the year end.
  • The Nasdaq led the charge in 2020 with a gain of 43.64% That was the largest gain since 2009
  • S&P was up 16.26%.  Since 2010 the S&P is up 240%
  • 57% of the gain in the S&P was from Microsoft, Amazon and Apple
  • The Dow is closing up 7.25% after spending most of the year in the negative. It wasn’t until the gap break higher on November 9th, that the index moved above and stayed above the closing level from 2019 at 28538.44. The Dow was down over -36% at the March low
The final numbers today are showing:
  • S&P index rose 24.03 points or +0.64% to 3756.07
  • NASDAQ index rose 18.279 points or 0.14% at 12888.28
  • Dow industrial average rose 196.92 points or 0.65% to 30606.48
Some of the big gainers for the year include:
  • Nio, +1112.94%
  • Tesla, +743.03%
  • Zoom, +395.71%
  • Crowdstrike, +324.74%
  • Square, +247.89%
  • Chewy, +209.97
  • Nvidia, +121.93%
  • Paypal, +116.51%
  • Albemarle, +101.97%
  • AMD, +99.98%
  • US steel, +88.93%
  • Slack, +88.03%
  • Apple, +80.75%
  • First Solar, +76.77%
  • Amazon, +76.26%
Some big losers for the year include:
  • United Airlines, -50.9%
  • Raytheon, -46.77%
  • Exxon Mobil, -46.03%
  • Schlumberger, -45.7%
  • American Airlines, -45.01%
  • Wells Fargo, -43.9%
  • Boeing, -34.29%
  • Walgreens, -32.36%
  • Delta Air Lines, -31.24%
  • Chevron, -29.92%
  • AT&T, -26.41%
  • Raytheon technologies, -24.12%
  • Citigroup, -22.82%
  • under armor, -22.42%
  • Boston Scientific -20.50%
  • Intel, -16.76%
  • General Dynamics, -15.61%
  • Southwest air, -13.65%
For the Dow 30, the biggest winners included:
  • Apple, +80.75%
  • Microsoft, +41.04%
  • Nike, +39.64%
  • Salesforce, +36.82%
  • Walt Disney, +25.27%
  • Home Depot, +21.63%
  • Walmart, +21.3%
  • Honeywell, +20.17%
The biggest losers from the Dow 30 include:
  • Boeing, -34.29%
  • Walgreens, -32.36%
  • Chevron, -29.92%
  • Intel, -16.76%
  • Bank of America, -13.94%
  • Merck, -10.06%
  • J.P. Morgan, -8.85%
  • Cisco, -6.69%

US indices close lower but rebound into the close eases the pain

  
Analysis, US Market
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NASDAQ index leads the way to the downside

The major indices are closing lower on the day but did rebounded into the close which eased some of the downside pain.
  • Dow close that is lowest level since July 31
  • Amazon, Apple close over 5% lower. Apple closes 20% below its all-time high
  • Twitter plunged 21%
  • Facebook fell -6.3%
  • Major indices post the 2nd straight monthly declines
  • Dow has it’s worst month since March
  • NASDAQ closes nearly 10% below its all-time high
  • S&P closes just 1.21% from the 2019 close
  • S&P closes 9% from all time high
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index fell -40.15 points or -1.21% at 3269.96
  • NASDAQ index fell -274 points or -2.45% at 10911.59
  • Dow industrial average fell 157.51 points or -0.59% at 26501.68
Looking at the ranges and changes for the major indices in North America and Europe, Portugal led the way to the upside. Other gainers were the France’s CAC, Spain’s Ibex, and Italy’s FTSE MIB. The NASDAQ index was the biggest loser for the day.
For the week,

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Apple/Epic battle notched up as Apple terminates all developer accounts

  
  Analysis
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Apple removed Fortnite from app store

Last week Apple removed Epic’s Fortnite from there app store claiming that Epic violated their guidelines by announcing a way for players to buy in-game currency outside their proprietary payment systems Fortnite sued Apple (and Google) claiming both companies’ app stores are monopolies.

Today Epic is tweeting:
Apple removed Fortnite from app store
The stakes are being raised it seems…

Bond’s send out a distress signal

  
  Analysis
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All is not well-

The constant fall in Bond yields is sending out a signal that all is not well in the world. The tail end of last week may have seen some excellent earnings from facebook, apple, amazon and alphabet and that started a fresh equity rally early Friday. However, the fall of Bond yields is saying, ‘look out! There may be trouble ahead. For the uninitiated bond traders tend to take a more long tern macro view. So, when equities rise, but bond yields are falling that is a signal something is wrong.

If you can recall at the start of the year one of the big questions was which market is right? Falling and yields or rising equities? The answer has been, ‘the falling bond yield market’. So, the general rule of thumb is go with the bond yield market. Now, of course this doesn’t mean that a funny divergence can last for weeks and months. However, at the very least it is a warning sign. That warning sign is showing again.

All is not well- 

Yields are dropping

The 10Y Gilt yield (UK bond) hit a record low last week. The 10Y Bund (German bond) closed at its lowest level since mid-May on Thursday last week, while the 10 y UST (US bond) was down towards its lowest ever close last week too.

Bonds

SP500

Why are they dropping?

The proverbial tea leaves are being read and a second wave of COVID-19 is being seen ahead. This will mean more monetary and fiscal policy help to get through the pandemic.So, yes the equity market has been rallying on the central bank support. However, the bond market is saying that the next stage of the global economy is fraught with dangers and a ‘V’ shaped recovery is more hope than reality.

Apple reports EPS of $2.58 on revenues of $59.69 billion

  
  Analysis
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Apple iPhone 11 Pro Max - Price in India, Full Specifications ...Apple earnings report

  • EPS $2.58 vs. estimates of $2.07
  • revenues $59.69 billion vs. estimate of $52.30 billion
  • Apple announces 4 – 1 stock split after shares surged toward $400
  • iPhone revenue $26.42 billion vs. estimate $21.31 billion
  • Products revenue $46.53 billion vs. estimate of $38.36 billion
Apple shares are trading at $407, after closing at $384.76

Apple reportedly delays launch event for new 5G iPhone

  
  Analysis
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This according to a New York Post article

the New York Post is out with an article saying that “Apple is reportedly delaying a fall launch event for its next batch of iPhones to the later half of October”.

Apple is now on track to releases 5G iPhone just-in-time for the holiday season. This according to Japanese Apple blog Mac Otakara.
Apple shares are down about $10.55 or 2.71% on the day to $378.50. It’s high price reached $399.81 few days ago – just short of the magical $400 a share.  Apple is expected to announce earnings on Thursday, July 30 after the close. That will be the same day that Amazon releases their earnings.
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Apple supply shortage to last into April: sources

  
  Analysis
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Apple will likely miss its schedule for mass producing a more affordable iPhone, while inventories of existing models could remain low until April or longer, despite suppliers in China gradually resuming production amid the coronavirus outbreak, sources familiar with the matter told the Nikkei Asian Review.

Apple had previously planned to release a more affordable iPhone this spring to maintain sales momentum into the first half of the year. Mass production was supposed to start by the end of February, but multiple sources say meeting that target is now very challenging and production could be delayed until sometime in March.

The U.S. tech giant had previously asked suppliers to ready up to 80 million units of iPhones, including up to 15 million units of the cheaper model, for the first half of 2020, the Nikkei Asian Review reported. With that aggressive production plan now uncertain, Apple became the latest major tech company to lower its revenue forecast on Monday.

“The suppliers are doing their best to produce and ship the [cheaper] iPhone within four weeks. …The delay can’t be too long, otherwise it will affect the sales strategy of Apple’s new products in the second half of this year,” one of the people, who has direct knowledge of the matter, told Nikkei.

“On average, suppliers in the iPhone supply chain are currently operating at around 30% to 50% of capacity,” another source told Nikkei. “The constrained supply of iPhones will likely extend to April. There are still a lot of hurdles, from labor shortages to logistics transportation.”

“The biggest uncertainty is still lingering as no one can be sure whether the coronavirus is under control,” the person said. The source added, however, that most suppliers expect to have more employees back at work as soon as next Monday, after the 14-day quarantine period expires for those who returned from other provinces by Feb. 10. (more…)

Apple says it doesn’t expect to meet revenue guidance this quarter- Full Report

  
  Analysis
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Apple issues update

Apple says they now expect a slower return to normal conditions in China with demand curbed within the country.
Here is the statement:
Our quarterly guidance issued on January 28, 2020 reflected the best information available at the time as well as our best estimates about the pace of return to work following the end of the extended Chinese New Year holiday on February 10. Work is starting to resume around the country, but we are experiencing a slower return to normal conditions than we had anticipated. As a result, we do not expect to meet the revenue guidance we provided for the March quarter due to two main factors.
The first is that worldwide iPhone supply will be temporarily constrained. While our iPhone manufacturing partner sites are located outside the Hubei province – and while all of these facilities have reopened – they are ramping up more slowly than we had anticipated. The health and well-being of every person who helps make these products possible is our paramount priority, and we are working in close consultation with our suppliers and public health experts as this ramp continues. These iPhone supply shortages will temporarily affect revenues worldwide.
The second is that demand for our products within China has been affected. All of our stores in China and many of our partner stores have been closed. Additionally, stores that are open have been operating at reduced hours and with very low customer traffic. We are gradually reopening our retail stores and will continue to do so as steadily and safely as we can. Our corporate offices and contact centers in China are open, and our online stores have remained open throughout.
Outside of China, customer demand across our product and service categories has been strong to date and in line with our expectations.The situation is evolving, and we will provide more information during our next earnings call in April. Apple is fundamentally strong, and this disruption to our business is only temporary.
Our first priority – now and always – is the health and safety of our employees, supply chain partners, customers and the communities in which we operate. Our profound gratitude is with those on the front lines of confronting this public health emergency.
How can three things all be your ‘first priority’? Judging by all the Foxcon reports, it’s tough to make the argument that health and safety is exactly the priority.

Apple extends coronavirus store closures in China

  
  Analysis
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Apple pushes back reopening

Apple had intended to reopen stores on Feb 10 but now says it plans for Feb 13-15, according to a statement sent to Bloomberg.
The market is using Apple and Starbucks as a bit of a barometer for Chinese commerce. This really shouldn’t be a surprise, the streets in Shanghai are empty.

Check this out to put the coronavirus impact into perspective

  
  Analysis
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This is one perspective, there will be others.

  • When the SARS epidemic hit in 2003 China had an economy size aroiund USD 1.7 tln
  • Today it is nearly an order of magnitude larger, around USD 13.7 tln
  • & China’s economy accounts for around a third of global GDP growth

ps.  this from Apple’s Tim Cook on what is happening with his business in China this week:

  • “We have closed one of our retail stores and a number of channel partners have also closed their store fronts. Our sales within the Wuhan areas are small, but retail traffic has also been impacted cross the country (China) in the last few days.”

Bolding mine.

Multiply the impact on traffic to Apple stores across the economy.

china coronavirus

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