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Building Winning Algorithmic Trading Systems-Kevin J. Davey :Book Review

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On balance expert systems trump human experts, hence the drive to make trading more systematic and mechanical. The problem is that Building Winning Algorithmic Trading Systems, the title of Kevin J. Davey’s new book (Wiley, 2014), can be tough. Davey recounts his sometimes gut-wrenching journey “from data mining to Monte Carlo simulation to live trading” and provides traders with useful information that will help them avoid his mistakes.

The author joins a rather small fraternity of systems developers who have shared their thoughts, for better or worse, with the reading public. I think here—and this list is in no way meant to be exhaustive—of Howard Bandy (Quantitative Trading Systems), Tushar Chande (Beyond Technical Analysis), Urban Jaekle and Emilio Tomasini (Trading Systems), Perry Kaufman (Trading Systems and Methods), Robert Pardo (The Evaluation and Optimization of Trading Strategies), and Thomas Stridsman (Trading Systems That Work).

The strength of Davey’s book is that it covers the entire process of designing, developing, testing, trading, and monitoring a system. It also includes Easy Language code for three sample strategies, and on the password-protected companion website (the password is given in the book) there are five helpful spreadsheets.
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3 Elements of Trading Success

What all winning traders must have, regardless of timeframe and system are as follows:

Trading System

  • They trade a robust system or method that wins more money over time than it loses.
  • Their system gives them a reward to risk ratio that is in their favor.
  • Their system or method is proven to work with a live trading record over many markets, trades, or has  historical back testing.

Trading with Managed Risk

  • They manage the risk of ruin to avoid blowing up their account.
  • They risk no more than 1%-2% of total account equity on any one trade.
  • They manage risk through proper position size so they do not risk their account and their ability to trade in the future.
  • They do not risk more than 6%-12% of their capital at one time, across multiple trades.

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10 Enemies of Trader

  1. Stubbornness: Not cutting losses short and sticking with a trading method that does not work.
  2. Arrogance: Believing that you are far smarter than the majority of market participants before their is any evidence that you really are is very dangerous.
  3. Opinions: The only opinion a good trader should hold is what they believe the price action is telling them after they have done the research of historical prices. Opinions about the future are useless unless you posses a fully functional crystal ball or time machine.Trading the price action in the present moment is what leads to success and profits.
  4. Bias: Getting stuck in bull mode or bear mode is dangerous and can lead to losses if you keep playing on a team that is losing day after day. Stay flexible in your trading and go with the flow you can spend both bull and bear sided profits the same way. (more…)

12 Things Traders Should Not Do at all

  1. A big ego that wants to prove they are right by stubbornly staying with a position that is wrong becasue they want to be right eventually so bad.12-Number
  2. A trader that want to prove he is a hot shot by trading big position sizes especially in options or futures.
  3. Not wanting to take a stop loss and instead just hope the trade comes back.
  4. Trading with emotions instead of a trading plan can get very expensive very fast.
  5. Being a bear in a bull market.
  6. Being a bull in a bear market.
  7. Being overly eager to start trading with real money before fully testing out a trading system.
  8. Trading without doing adequate homework on how to win.
  9. Dollar cost averaging down in a trade is many time expensive to fight that trend.
  10. Ignoring the charts and just trading your opinion.
  11. Ignoring the probability of the risk of ruin based on your current position sizing.
  12. Not really understanding the true danger of  ‘Black Swan’ and ‘Fat Tail’ events.

10 -Trend Following Commandments

1.    You shall back test and develop quantify robust trend trading systems that are profitable over the long term.
2.    You shall identify and follow the long term trend in the markets you trade, and have no guru that you bow down to.
3.    You shall not try to predict the future, that is a fool’s game, but follow the current price trend.
4.    You shall remember the stop loss to keep your capital safe from destruction; you shall know your exit level before your entry is taken.
5.    Follow your trend following system all the days that you are trading, so that through discipline you will be profitable.
6.    You shall not give up on your trading system because of a draw down.
7.    You shall not change a winning system because it has had a few losing trades.
8.    You shall trade with the principles that have proven to work for successful traders. Manage risk, go with the trend, and diversify so your days in the market will be long.
9.    You shall keep the faith in your trend following system even in range bound markets; a trend will begin anew eventually.
10.    You shall not covet fundamentalist’s valuations, Blue channels talking heads, newsletter predictions, Holy Grails, or the false claims of any of the black box systems.

10+10+10 Trading Rules

1.    Be flexible and go with the flow of the markets price action, stubbornness, egos, and emotions are the worst indicators for entries and exits.
2.    Understand that the trader only chooses their entries, exits, position size, and risk and the market chooses whether they are profitable or not.
3.    You must have a trading plan before you start to trade, that has to be your anchor in decision making.
4.    You have to let go of wanting to always be right about your trade and exchange it for wanting to make money. The first step of making money is to cut a loser short the   moment it is confirmed that you are wrong.
5.    Never trade position sizes so big that your emotions take over from your trading plan.
6.    “If it feels good, don’t do it.” – Richard Weissman
7.    Trade your biggest position sizes during winning streaks and your smallest position sizes during losing streaks. Not too big and trade your smallest when in a losing streak.
8.    Do not worry about losing money that can be made back worry about losing your trading discipline.
9.    A losing trade costs you money but letting a big losing trade get too far out of hand can cause you to lose your nerve. Cut losses for the sake o your nerves as much as for the sake of capital preservation.
10.    A trader can only go on to success after they have faith in themselves as a trader, their trading system  as a winner, and know that they will stay disciplined in their trading journey.

Bring your risk of ruin down to almost zero. (more…)

15 Fundamentals To Win Stock Market Battle

Gerald Loeb was a founding partner of E.F. Hutton, a renowned and successful Wall Street trader, and the author of the books The Battle For Investment Survival and The Battle For Stock Market Profits.

Mr. Loeb promoted a contrarian view of the market as too risky to hold stocks for the long term in direct contrast to many of his generation. At the time, many considered Loeb’s comments heresy to the buy and hold doctrine so common among many in the industry. While Loeb never had the opportunity to trade in an environment now ruled by quants, algorithmic trading and massive government intervention, his wisdom and insight is still applicable in today’s environment. After all, the more things change, the more they always stay the same!

Based on his two books, here are 15 fundamentals Loeb argues that you need to understand to win the battle not only against yourself, but also against the market:

  1. What everyone else knows is not worth knowing.
  2. Stocks are always way overvalued in a bull market and way undervalued in a bear market.
  3. The best stocks will always seem overpriced to the majority of investors.
  4. Expectation, not the news itself, is what moves the market.
  5. Three basis elements should be considered when evaluating a stock – 1) quality (fundamentals, liquidity, management), 2) price, and 3) trend (the most important).
  6. Stocks act like human beings and go through the same stages and phases as people do, including infancy, growth, maturity, and decline. The key in trading is to be able to recognize which stage the stock is in and to take advantage of that opportunity.
  7. Pyramid your buys – start with an initial position and then add to it only if the trade moves in your favor.
  8. The more experienced and successful you become, the less you should diversify.
  9. Traders must always resist the urge and temptation to change their strategies for each and every different market cycle.
  10. To succeed in trading you must 1) aim high, 2) control the risks, 3) be unafraid to keep uninvested reserves and 4) be patient.
  11. Successful traders are intelligent, they understand human psychology, they practice pure objectivity, and they have natural quickness.
  12. You must always trade with the actions of the market and not simply by how you might think the market should trade.
  13. Knowledge through experience is one trait that separates successful stock market speculators from everyone else.
  14. The stock market is more an art than a science and far more complex than most people understand.
  15. Always sell when you start patting yourself on the back for being smarter than the market. (more…)

Right Trading Mindset

  1. Back test, study charts, and only trade proven strategies: No trading should begin until you know that your system is a historically profitable one through multiple trading environments. There are many ways to do this and the depth of study into your specific trading system is up to you. But if you do not know how what you are currently doing performed historically then you need to stop until you do understand.

  2. Small losses: Keeping your losses small so you can keep your will and desire to trade strong. Nothing breaks a new traders mindset faster than big, painful losses of capital that are very hard to come back from.
  3. Build confidence through having winning trades: A lot of the great traders we get to see on social media have  built up themselves through many years of learning from failure and then hitting their stride with winning months and winning years. Even if your wins are small, wins will help you build the mindset that you can do this and be successful as a trader. Build yourself up through consistent disciplined trading and winning streaks.
  4. Trade with the right principles: Trading with the right core trading principles like going with the trend in your time frame, never losing more than 1% of your trading capital on any one trade, and follow your trading plan 100% can go a long way to solidifying your peace of mind as trader knowing you will not do anything that will really hurt yourself in the markets.
  5. Match your beliefs to your trading methodology: We can only effect trade a system that matched our strong beliefs about the markets. If you believe in the nature of trends you have to find the markets that trend and trade them. If you are convinced that market always revert to the mean then a robust mean reversion is what you can comfortably trade. Swing trading for traders that love trading ranges, and day trading for those that want action and no overnight risk. The question is who are you as a trader and what trading style matches your personality and risk tolerance.

High-frequency trading: when milliseconds mean millions

Asked to imagine what a Wall Street share-dealing room looks like and the layman will describe a testosterone-fuelled bear pit crammed full of alpha males in brightly coloured jackets, frantically shouting out bid and offer prices.

He couldn’t be more wrong. Technological advances mean that stocks are now traded digitally on computer servers in often anonymous – but heavily guarded – buildings, generally miles away from the historic epicentres of finance, meaning the brash men in sharp suits depicted in films such as the The Wolf of Wall Street have been dethroned as the kings of finance.
Computer programmers have taken their crown thanks to the code they churn out, which is able to execute trades thousands of times faster than any human. (more…)

Trading Lessons & Secret Knowledge

Know specifically what you want in great detail. Not just how much money you want to make but how much time you want to spend trading, the amount of draw downs you are willing to experience and the amount of risk you are willing to put up with, and be realistic. For example if you say I want to make 100% on my account per year, I want no draw downs, I want to look at my positions once a week and not take on any risk. That’s like saying I want to make a million dollars a year as a pro basketball player, and all I’m willing to do to is buy some courses on how to play basketball and practice a few times a week. It’s not going to happen that way and you’ll need to change your expectations or you are wasting your time. It’s the same way with trading.

Take action with intention. Make lots of trades, not just one per month, try 30 per month or more. Find someone who is getting the results you want in the fashion you’d like to get them and model them. Decide on a system or set of systems that have the potential to get the results you want and then work with that system until it works for you. This is key, you are not going to find some set of rules that are instantly going to get you the results you want. You are going to have to pick a system and work with it for extended periods of time and experience many failures before it works for you, and even then, you will still experience losing periods. That’s just part of trading and if you cannot deal with it save yourself a lot of time and money and find a new profession. (more…)

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