Latest Posts

rss

Thursday’s Fed speakers and their biases – Williams is one to watch

  
  Analysis

Lots and lots

Hard to think of slower markets today.
Still looking for an explanation after the Fed’s latest hawkish dot plot shift then here are the Fed speakers up later today and there are a lot of them. The biases noted. Hopefully they will inject some life into things.
  • Barkin – neutral
  • Bostic – hawk
  • Harker – hawk
  • Williams – neutral
  • Bullard – hawk now
  • Kaplan – hawk
The one to watch will be Williams.  
Any sense in which the average targeted inflation has been ‘achieved’ or the Fed has moved on from that and that will be USD bullish. On June 22 Williams said that’ I don’t think it is close to the ‘substantial progress’ that we set out ‘to trigger taper’.

Copper to fall lower on Chinese supply?

  
  Analysis

Copper 4 hour trend line

Copper futures retraced a little this week, but there are some bearish signals according to Bloomberg:
  • China’s import demand is around lowest since 2017
  • LME stockpiles are up around 30% this month
On top of this China, fearing consumer inflation, will start sales of the metal from Gov’t reserves. This could be the start of China keeping copper prices lower.
Low risk entry is on break of 4 hour trendline. Fed speakers later could push it lower if USD rises on any hawkish comments – one to watch
Copper 4 hour trend line

US negotiators are prepared to return to indirect talks with Iran on nuclear deal

  
  Analysis

There are various reports that the US  is preparing to return to talks with Iran.

The correct nuance though is that US negotiators are prepared to return once the leadership in Tehran is ready. Comments to that effect come from a Biden administration official.
  • negotiating team could return to talks in Vienna as early as next week
  • though that date might be pushed back, according to the official, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations

US Senator Romney confirms ‘framework’ agreement on infrastructure reached

  
  Analysis

Romney emerged from the meeting with Democrats and White House representatives:

  • “Republicans and Democrats have come together along with the White House — We’ve agreed on the framework and we’re going to be heading to the White House tomorrow.”
The White House has issued a similar statement:
  • progress made on an outline of a potential agreement
  • Biden has invited the group to the White House Thursday
—
On this:
  • progress made on an outline of a potential agreement

It probably couldn’t get much vaguer. Still, sounds like at least some progress.

Crypto is ‘rat poison’ (but there’s a but …)

  
Analysis, BITCOIN

Reuters report on a survey conducted at JPMorgan’s Macro, Quantitative and Derivatives conference

  • attendees from around 1,500 institutions
  • 10% of institutional investment firms in the survey trade cryptocurrencies
  • nearly 50% said crypto is either “rat poison” or forecast that it is just a transitory fad
On the other hand, 40% said they were personally trading crypto!
They secretly love it!

BTC update:

Reuters report on a survey conducted at JPMorgan's Macro, Quantitative and Derivatives conference
Go to top