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The medium is the message: Jackson Hole goes virtual

  
  Analysis

That’s a powerful message to Jerome Powell

That's a powerful message to Jerome Powell
At the July 28 FOMC press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell brushed aside delta, saying it would now have only a minor effect on the path of the economy.
He’s no doubt rethinking that.
Goldman Sachs last week cut its Q3 GDP forecast to 5.5% from 9.0% as voluntary and involuntary restrictions go into place.
Powell won’t have to look any further than his own major speech planned for Friday in Jackson Hole. The Kansas City Fed has announced the in-person three-day event would be cancelled and moved to a virtual format.
It won’t be tough for Powell to envision the economic impacts of that decision and a million more small (and large) similar shifts because of the raging pandemic in the United States. At this point, I would be shocked if he offers a hint at a September taper.

FDA aims to give full approval to Pfizer covid vaccine on Monday

  
  Analysis
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Full approval could aid with vaccine hesitancy

Full approval could aid with vaccine hesitancy
A common refrain for US anti-vaxxers is that they want full FDA approval before getting the vaccine. Whether that’s a real reason or flimsy excuse will be put to the test in the near future as the New York Times reports the agency is planning to give full approval on Monday.
More importantly, full approval will give cover to many public and private employers and organizations for vaccine mandates. If approved next week, it will be interesting to see if there’s a tipping point as schools and companies tell workers to get the vaccine or get a new job.

Key events and releases next week. Jackson Hole symposium the highlight

  
  Analysis
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Feds Powell to speak at 10 AM ET on Friday August 27

Next week’s key events and releases will be highlighted by the Jackson Hole symposium which will take place from August 26 through August 28.  The main speech made by Fed chair Powell, will take place on August 27 at 10 AM ET/1400 GMT.
The market will be focused on any time one projections from the Fed chair for taper.  There have been a number of Fed officials who have expressed the desire to begin the taper sooner rather than later.  However, Feds Kaplan – one of the more hawkish Fed Presidents – dialed back a bit on concerns if the Delta variants starts to impact production.
Other key events include:
Monday, August 23:
  • Australia flash manufacturing and services PMI 7 PM ET/2300 GMT
  • France flash manufacturing and services PMI.  3:15 AM ET/715 GMT. Estimate 57.1 manufacturing. 56.2 services
  • German flash manufacturing and service PMI, 3:30 AM ET/730 GMT. Estimate 65.1 manufacturing and 61.0 services
  • UK flash manufacturing and services PMI. 4:30 AM ET/830 GMT.  Estimate 59.5 manufacturing and 59.0 services
  • US flash manufacturing and services PMI. 9:45 AM ET/1345 GMT.  Estimate 62.8 manufacturing and 59.1 services
Tuesday, August 24
  • New Zealand retail sales, 6:45 PM ET Monday/2245 GMT Monday. Estimate 2.0% versus 2.5% last month. Core retail sales 1.9% versus 3.2% last month
  • US new home sales, 10 AM ET/1400 GMT. Estimate 698K versus 676K last month
  • US Richard Fed manufacturing index. 10 AM ET/1400 GMT. Last month 27.0
Wednesday, August 25:
  • German Ifo business climate.  4 AM ET/800 GMT. Estimate 100.6 versus 100.8 last month
  • US durable goods orders. 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT.  Estimate -0.2% versus +0.9% last month. Core durable goods +0.4% estimate versus +0.5% last month
  • Weekly crude oil inventories. 10:30 AM ET/1430 GMT. Crude oil has been down for seven consecutive days
Thursday, August 26.
  • US preliminary GDP 3Q. 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT. Estimate 6.6% versus 6.5% for the first cut
  • US unemployment claims.  8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT.  Estimate 355K versus 348K last week
  • Start of Jackson Hole symposium
Friday, August 27
  • Australian retail sales, 9:30 PM ET Thursday/1330 GMT.  Estimate -2.0% versus -1.8% last month
  • US Core PCE price index MoM, 8:30 AM ET.  Estimate 0.3% versus 0.4% last month
  • Fed chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole symposium.  10 AM ET/1400 GMT
  • US revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment.  Estimate 10 AM ET/1400 GMT.  Estimate 71.2 versus 70.2 preliminary
Saturday, August 28
  • Jackson Hole symposium

Jackson Hole Summit to be held virtually

  
  Analysis

The summit was to be held face-to-face

The Jackson Hole Summit will be held virtually instead of face-to-face.  This according to the Kansas City Fed who stages the event annually.  The risk of Covid is leading to the decision.  The scheduled three day event will now be all conducted on August 27th.
With the event now being held virtually, I can’t think that the Fed Chair would be in a hurry to start to taper, or tilt more in that direction.
Moreover, if other events start to cancel/report restrictions on events (think football), it would be a temporary negative to the economy until this crisis is once again over. The good however,, is it may also get more people to get vaccinated (think the rabid football fan base from southeastern portion of the United States where most of the hotspots and unvaccinated are found).
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