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84% of respondents expect Fed to taper before year-end – BofA fund manager survey

  
  Analysis

Findings from the latest BofA fund manager survey

  • Global growth expectations lowest since May 2021
  • First Fed rate hike expectations seen at February 2023
  • Equity protection at the lowest since January 2018; liquidity conditions viewed as the best since before the 2008 global financial crisis

If anything, this is more of a sentiment indicator and shows how the market is roughly positioned and well handled to receive any taper announcement by the Fed in the months to come. As mentioned before, the timeline for the moment fits with:

  1. Acknowledgment of (start of) taper discussions in September
  2. A formal taper announcement in November
  3. Tapering to likely begin in December
Of course, it all depends on further economic data in the weeks ahead and we’ll be getting a big one today via the US CPI report later at 1230 GMT.

IEA says progressing vaccinations should unlock pent-up demand for oil in Q4

  
Analysis, Crude

IEA remarks in its monthly report

  • Vaccine rollouts should help to unlock stymied demand for oil, especially in Asia
  • Signs that COVID-19 cases are abating should see demand rebound sharply by 1.6 mil bpd in October and continuing to growth until year-end
  • Unplanned outages from Hurricane Ida offset increases by OPEC+
  • Estimates that global oil demand fell for three straight months to date amid the COVID-19 resurgence in Asia
  • Adds that the market should shift closer to balance from October if OPEC+ continues to unwind output cuts
  • By early 2022, supply will be high enough to allow oil stocks to be replenished

A good summary on the oil market situation right now as delta variant concerns are still persisting but less impactful as what we saw over the past few months. Adding to that is the hype surrounding fossil fuels amid a cold winter and higher energy prices.

Oil is up 0.8% today and testing the $71 mark as buyers look to build on a daily break above $70 in trading yesterday.

The Litecoin fiasco overnight

  
  Analysis

The fact that it came through such a big source (globalnewswire) made it “believable” at first glance and got the market excited. But just as it was quickly tweeted, it was also rather quickly debunked and that sent Litecoin back down to earth in the aftermath.

A bigger mistake was on the part of Litecoin in tweeting further about the deal, as though confirming it – which turns out to not be the case.
Here is how Litecoin is doing now after the major fiasco:
Litecoin

Oil – US Gulf copping it again, this time Tropical Storm Nicholas

  
Analysis, Crude

The US oil industry is still struggling to recover from the damage from Hurricane Ida.

Circa 40% of capacity is still compromised.
Now a new storm is slowing efforts at recovery, at least this one does appear to be as intense as Ida. Tropical Storm Nicholas may gather intensity though, the US National Hurrican Center say:
  • A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
The US oil industry is still struggling to recover from the damage from Hurricane Ida. 

Leaders of Australia, India, Japan to meet with Biden at the White House – ‘Quad’ summit

  
Analysis, Politics

US President Joe Biden will host a ‘Quad’ summit on September 24. China’s growing assertiveness is said to be the main topic.

Will be held at the White House, leaders all attending in person.
  • Australia’s Scott Morrison
  • India’s Narendra Modi
  • Japan’s Yoshihide Suga
“Hosting the leaders of the Quad demonstrates the Biden-Harris Administration’s priority of engaging in the Indo-Pacific, including through new multilateral configurations to meet the challenges of the 21st century,” says White House press secretary Jen Psaki
i.e “challenges of the 21st century” = China, I guess.
The last meeting, in March, was virtual:
US President Joe Biden will host a 'Quad' summit on September 24. China's growing assertiveness is said to be the main topic. Australia’s PM praying he still fits on his pants? Dunno.

Dow and S&P snap five day decline. NASDAQ down for the fourth straight day

  
Analysis, US Market

Dow Jones leads the way led by energy and financials

The Dow and S&P snapped a five day decline. The NASDAQ was not so lucky falling for the fourth consecutive day. However, late day buying did push the major indices higher into the close. The NASDAQ closed well off it’s low level. The S&P was negative going into the last few hours of trading, but erased the declines and closed higher on the day.

The winning sectors included:

  • Energy was the biggest gain or with a 2.95% gain.
  • Financials rose 1.13%
  • Real estate increase 0.49%
  • Communication services rose 0.41%
The losing sectors included:
  • Healthcare, -0.61%
  • Utilities -0.18%
  • Materials -0.01%.
  • Technology was near unchanged at +0.03
The final numbers are showing:
  • Dow industrial average rose 261.91 points or 0.76% at 34869.64
  • S&P index rose 10.15 points or 0.23% at 4468.72
  • NASDAQ index fell -9.9 points or -0.07% at 15105.59
  • Russell 2000 rose 13.24 points or 0.59% at 2240.78
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