Latest Posts

rss

Understanding the perils of overconfidence (Links )

  
Education, LINKS
#  #  #  #

A thorough explanation of the overconfidence effect. (Wikipedia)

The Art of Thinking Clearly. (Psychology Today)

Examples of overconfidence outside the charts.  (Your Dictionary)

Key concepts of overconfidence. (Albert Phung via Investopedia)

There are three ways overconfidence can make a fool of you. (Christine Riordan via Forbes)

Managing Overconfidence. (Russo and Schoemaker via Sloan Management Review)

Two types of overconfidence. (Synapse Trading)

The dynamics of overconfident stock market forecasters. (Deaves, Luders, and Schroder via ZEW)

Can we use the overconfidence bias to game the system?  (Scott, Stumpp, and Xu via The Journal of Portfolio Management)

Overtrading is a by product of overconfidence. (Irwan Trinugroho via IJBM) and (Barber and Odean via Berkeley)

Do not be overconfident when investing. (Larry Swedroe via CBS Money Watch)

Overconfidence is more prevalent in… men? (Jeff Sommer via NYT)

TRADING QUOTES

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #
Planning, Discipline & Patience.
  • ‘Predicting rain does n’t count; building arks does’: Warren Buffett’s Noah Rule.
  • “To know and not to do, is not yet to know” – Courtesy of Tom Witters.
  • ‘It’s easy to have faith in yourself and have discipline when you’re a winner, when you’re number one. What you got to have is faith and discipline when you’re not a winner.’ – Vince Lombardi
  • ‘After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!’ – Jesse Livermore

Fear

  • ‘Never let fear of striking out, get in your way’: Babe Ruth.

Perspectives

  • ‘It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future,’ – Lawrence Peter ‘Yoggi’ Berra.
  • “go as far as you can see, and when you get there , you will see further.” –
  • anonymous
  • ‘Don’t worry what others think… They don’t do it very often’ – Courtesy of Mark Carstens.
  • “A little learning is a dangerous thing, but we must take that risk because a little is as much as our biggest heads can hold.” – George Bernard Shaw.
  • “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it” – George Santayana.
  • “Glory is fleeting but obscurity is eternal” – Napoleon
  • ‘A long term investment is when I break even.’ – Courtesy of David Wong. (more…)

10 Trading Lesson For Traders

  
  Education
  Tags

10) Those who are willing can be taught almost anything.
9) Great people want to help others achieve great success.
8) Success in business requires tremendous concentration. Outside distractions must be avoided.
7) Sometimes it is best to leave politics to politicians.
6) Everyone fails at some point in his life. The true winners rebuild after their failures.
5) To put on a trade when everything is going against you requires character and commitment.
4) Rules are rules. Stick to them.
3) Adapt with the times. Be willing to be malleable.
2) Always leave yourself outs. Never commit everything to one position or to one person.

And the number one lesson:

1) The market is bigger, stronger and badder than you. Always respect it for the beast it is.

5-Costly Trading Mistakes

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

1.  Undercapitalized.  If the trader does not have the adequate capital to trade with, then money, not learning how to trade, will be the primary focus.  Few, if any, ever succeed trading scared money.

2.  Overtrading.  The idea is to make money and keep it, not give it all back because of recklessness.  There is no such thing as being perfect when it comes to trading. Overtrading will easily prove just how imperfect you are. 

3.  Trading Too Many Markets.  Learn to be a specialist because in trading it is best to put all your eggs in one basket while knowing how best to watch and protect that basket very closely.

4.  Believing You Are Invincible.  Few activities teach humility as well as trading.  Seasoned traders respect the risk while novice traders treat success as their birthright.

5.  Lack of Dicipline.  You have to have a game plan when trading.  Failure to have a plan betrays your lack of discipline and feeds your desire to trade off the cuff.  Trading this way is a recipe for disaster.  Just ask someone who has tried it.

Go to top