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Traps and Pitfalls

Realistically, there are many ways to lose money in the financial markets and, if you play this game long enough, you’ll get to know the most of them intimately. Fortunately, a survivalist plan empowers you to avoid many of the traps and pitfalls faced by other traders. Above all else, learn the five market scenarios that place you at the most risk.

  1. Bad Markets – A good pattern won’t bail you out of a bad market, so move to the sidelines when conflict and indecision take hold of the tape. Your long-term survival depends on effective trade management. The bottom line: don’t trade when you can’t measure your risk, and stand aside when you can’t find your edge.
  2. Bad Timing – It’s easy to be right but still lose money. Financial instruments are forced to negotiate a minefield of conflicting trends, each dependent on different time frames. Your positions need to align with the majority of these cycles in order to capture the profits visualized in your trade analysis.
  3. Bad Trades – There are a lot of stinkers out there, vying for your attention, so look for perfect convergence before risking capital on a questionable play, and then get out at the first sign of danger. It’s easy to go brain dead and step into a weak-handed position that makes absolutely no sense, whether it moves in your favor or not. The bottom line: it’s never too late to get out of a stupid trade.
  4. Bad Stops – Poor stops will shake you out of good positions. Stops do their best work when placed outside the market noise, while keeping risk to a minimum. Many traders believe professionals hit their stops because they have inside knowledge, but the truth is less mysterious. Most of us stick them in the same old places.
  5. Bad Action – Modern markets try to burn everyone before they launch definable trends. These shakeouts occur because most traders play popular strategies that have been deconstructed by market professionals. In a sense, the buy and sell signals found in TA books are turned against the naïve folks using them.

HOPE, FEAR AND GREED

The spectator’s chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. In speculation when the market goes against you, you hope that every day will be the last day and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope. And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out too soon. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts. He has to reverse what you might call his natural impulses. Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit.-Jesse Livermore

Perspective

When you trade, know why you are trading that position. You can listen to others, and remember that you are the ultimate decision maker.

I remember a client of mine who is very brilliant; he knew why he was getting into a trade. Then he would trust others much more than himself, and as a result, he would change his mind and would lose. Needless to say, he has learned to trust himself and develop his mental edge. I am very happy to say that these days he is doing very well.

What are the key points for keeping your own perspective?

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    • Believe in yourself.
    • Know your strategies.
    • Know your entry and exit points.
    • Be cognizant of who or what news sources you listen to.
    • Be aware of who you surround yourself with.

US House passes border bill amid India anger

WASHINGTON — The US House of Representatives on Tuesday passed legislation to toughen US-Mexico border security, amid anger in India at the steep increases in work visa fees proposed to pay for the new measures.

The measure, unveiled 90 days before November mid-term elections, aims to add another 1,500 agents and deploy more unmanned aerial vehicles that scan the frontier for undocumented immigrants or illegal drug runners.

The House, called back from a month-long break to adopt an emergency spending package to help cash-strapped states, passed the border measure by voice vote.

The legislation’s 600-million-dollar price tag would be paid by raising fees on what the measure’s backers called a handful of foreign firms that “exploit” US visa programs to improperly import workers to the United States.

A summary of a Senate version of the bill named Indian firms Wipro, Tata, Infosys and Satyam, which fly thousands of employees each year to the United States to work at their clients’ locations as technicians and engineers.

India’s National Association of Software and Services Companies (NASSCOM) has slammed the bill, warning it would boost annual US visa costs for India’s outsourcing industry by 200-250 million dollars annually.

S. Gopalakrishnan, chief executive of India’s second-largest outsourcer Infosys Technologies, told reporters late Monday he was “saddened and disheartened” by the step and said the sector would lobby strongly against it. (more…)

Reacting versus Predicting in Trading

Most of the best traders I have read about and know of personally do not predict what will happen they trade what is happening. New traders always want to predict, they want to argue about their beliefs and why something must happen or will happen. Most rich traders are rich because they are flexible, they have no strong opinions and are just looking at possibilities and ready to take a set up, buy a break out or short a break down. A new trader believes that ‘conviction’ about a trade is important, holding through an adverse move is usually a bad idea, especially if a key level is reached that is showing the trader that they are wrong. A rich trader is waiting for some price level to trigger their entry then another price level to trigger their exit. A new trader is trading off a belief and has no real exit plan most the time because they are sure that they are right.

The money I have pulled out of the market over the past 10 years has come from trading price action not predicting. I have entered at high probability moments on break outs above resistance levels. I have trailed my winning trend trades with a stop and sold when the trend reversed through key short term support. When I was wrong I stopped out for a small loss, when I was right I let the winner run up for a very big win. I am always trend hunting, always taking my high probability trades, always cutting losses short, and when not seeing a great trade doing nothing and waiting.

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