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rssEveryone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth
I heard Mike Tyson say this years ago, and it immediately stuck with me because of so many ties it has to trading your trading plan with focus, discipline, and repetition.
Our main focus in training new and veteran traders is to build a belief in the system through repetition. After seeing the performance of a trade over 150 times within a 2 month period, it becomes evident that you begin to move away from a fear-based internal dialogue regarding your trade. You already know the system is consistently profitable, so the only X-factor in the entire process is that little 6-inch universe between your ears. Now, the focus of accuracy has everything to do with you, the trader, following your rules with consistency and repetition and nothing to do with the system.
Now back to my original point. We have seen the trades. We know the system is profitable. We have simulated the system and are showing a profit. We are ready to trade live hard earned cash that we have an emotional attachment to. Every dollar we are trading equals a loaf of bread, so to speak. Our hard earned trading capital is now taking the INEVITABLE equity draw-down, as dictated by the system. We WILL lose trades, traders, this is a fact that we must embrace on all levels. But remember, contraction leads to expansion. Your draw-down will inevitably lead to a run-up. The KEY is NOT TO MISS IT!
Now, we’ve had the draw-down, and to put it bluntly we’ve “Been punched in the mouth”. THIS is where the magic happens. At this very moment what will you do? Will you let the fear and painful associations of the market dictate your trading executions? Or will you draw upon your training, having fully accepted that this equity swing is nothing more than another step to consistent profitability?
Will you continue to place those next trades with consistency? Will you remove all mpulsive trades from your trading style? Will you follow the trading plan that you’ve put so much thought and process into developing for yourself?
If you have a pen, WRITE THIS DOWN and tape it to your Monitor:
“WHEN I TRADE MY PLAN WITH CONSISTENCY AND REPETITION THE MONEY WILL FOLLOW.”
Remember, every trader gets punched in the mouth. The magic is how you apply
your trading when this happens.
"Visualizing All Horrific Bitcoin Crashes"
A Brief History Of Silver Manipulation
A Brief History of Silver Manipulation
The silver fairy tale of the brothers Hunt
In the early 80’s the attempt of the Brothers Hunt, Nelson Bunker and William Herbert Hunt, to fully clamp down the silver market was one of the most spectacular but at the same time also one of the most unsuccessful financials plans within the then fair world. Despite that the brothers failed in their attempt to clamp the silver market, they have succeeded to make a outright mess of the precious metals market and lose one of the largest fortunes in the world in no time.
The expansion of the Hunt Empire
Nelson Bunker Hunt and William Herbert Hunt were born in one of the richest American families. Their father Haroldson Lafayette (also known as H.L. or Arizona Slim), had acquired a fortune during the 20s and the 30s in the Texan oil industry. By investing these oil revenues in successful companies, the Hunt family grew into one of the most prosperous families from all over America. When H.L. died in 1974, he left his next of kin therefore an immense capital. H.L. Hunt had 14 children at three different women, 6 with his legal wife, 4 from a bigamist marriage and another 4 at one of his mistresses. Bunker and Herbert were two full-fledged brothers, namely the second and the third son of H.L. Hunt and his first wife Lyda Bunker Hunt. When Bunker and Herbert just started to get a grip on the silver market the 70’s, their capital was estimated around 13 billion dollars. H.I. Hunt’s logical successor and next boss of the Hunt Empire was originally his eldest son Hassie. However, his plans were thwarted when the same Hassie during his twenties had to do to with psychiatric problems and underwent various treatments without success. H.L. therefore had no choice but to name his second son as successor to lead. In the beginning, however, Bunker showed not the gift of his father in order to locate new oil fields. Bunker lost in his early years millions of dollars by error self-rated and fruitless attempts to find new oil fields for the Hunt Empire Carlo. But once Bunker learned how to do it after a few year, he did it immediately with verve and with style. He found an immense Libyan oil field, Sarir Field, which turned out to be one of the largest oil fields in the world. The discovery of this oil field swept into a seesaw the losses which he had piled up in the previous years from the table. In the early 70’s, he and his brother Herbert took over the Empire forever on.
Silver times glimmer on the horizon
By mid 1970s Hunt developed systematically an obsession for silver. When he went looking for a source of stability in a world that was currently very unstable and subject to inflation was and influences was the fear of international communism, he came out on the magic word silver. He saw not only future in silver but he was also convinced that silver was undervalued and that the silver value could not otherwise than rise. Supported by the opinion of their financial advisors locks he joined the investment group Bache investment house and they put their first steps in the silver world. Middle 1970s the brothers Hunt dominated for almost 10% of the entire silver stock and their increasing impact on the silver market made sure that the silver prices within a few years of $ 2 per ounce increased to more than $ 6 per ounce. They invested not only their entire own capital in silver but they tried also others to convince others to do so. In this way, they found support with a group of Arabian investors who where able to buy huge volumes of silver with their endless supplies of money and propel the price of silver into the skies. The Hunts, backed up by the Arabs, increasingly got more influence in the silver market by which their holding grew out of proportion and which supplied them the means to loan more money and buy more silver and increase the price even more. And the plan seemed to be working! At the end of 1979, after years of price increases, the price for silver was 35$/ounce, a unseen price. Other investors where atracked by these price increases and also started to invest in silver what gave the price a even bigger boost. In the 80’s, the plan of the Hunt brothers seemed to have worked and the market was on his head. In less then a decade they where able to inflate the price from 2$ per ounce in the beginning of the 70’s to 50$ per ounce at the beginning of the 80’s. It even seemed realistic by then that silver would go to $200/$300.
Bloody Thursday
The end was near. The prices of silver stopped rising and started to go down. They weren’t able to attract enough funds anymore to influence the price and the price started to went down. The price of silver and gold started their seemingly endless drop because investors started to invest their money in bankcertificats for higher interests. Not only the value of the precious metals plummeted but also the fortune of the Hunts went up in smoke. The brother took on massive loans to fund their silver quest and couldn’t repay their debts anymore which they made with brokers like Bache, A.G. Edwards, Merrill Lynch en some others who had to be repaid when the silver market crashed. These brokers started to protect themselves against these drops and made fortunes when the silver went down. The Hunts were confronted by margin calls from their brokers to repay them in the next 5 days or there would be a liquidation. (more…)
Lessons from Lobagola
[A LoBagola, as described in The Education of A Speculator
by Dr. Niederhoffer, is a phenomenon whereby a market makes an
historically large run in one direction, usually up, and then at some
unpredictable point begins an equally extreme run back to where it
started.]
1. The pace of the elephants on the way down set the underlying conditions for the reversal. The expectation studies must include the number of failed reversal attempts, as well as the usual measures.
2. In actual migrations, elephants selectively eat trees/plants without killing them, the plants re-grow and the elephants eat them on the reversal (coppicing effect). Hence, elephants are able to use the same migration route because they know that the resources in these areas will be available to them. In markets, the footprint of the move can be observed in the patterns of time and volume and untouched bids and offers.
3. The most difficult part of trading lobagolas is: “nobody knows when they come back”. Qualitative observations about the nature of the migration might help. There are two main causes for elephant migration: resources and human intervention, the latter also is known to be able to change the path of the elephants. Some classification studies (not retrospectively) in market moves is appropriate. (more…)
Under water? Do you need a rowboat?
Poor Traders & Rich Traders
Poor traders have ‘picks’, rich traders have “high probability entries”.
- Poor traders “make great calls”, rich traders have robust systems.
- Poor traders have ‘conviction’, rich traders follow price action.
- Poor traders have ‘opinions’, rich traders follow trends and chart patterns.
- Poor traders ‘like’ certain stocks, rich traders like to make money.
- Poor traders make predictions, rich traders have quantified entries and exit levels.
- Poor traders ‘go all in’, rich traders have maximum bet sizes.
- Poor traders are gamblers, rich traders are casinos.
Poor traders have hope, rich traders have mathematical probabilities.
McMillan et al., Investments
Investments: Principles of Portfolio and Equity Analysis, coedited by Michael G. McMillan, Jerald E. Pinto, Wendy L. Pirie, and Gerhard Van de Venter (Wiley, 2011), was written for financial analysts as well as aspiring financial analysts. Part of the CFA Institute’s book series, it is a weighty tome of more than 600 pages. In twelve chapters it covers such topics as market organization and structure, security market indices, market efficiency, portfolio management, portfolio risk and return, portfolio planning and construction, equity securities, industry and company analysis, equity valuation, equity market valuation, and technical analysis. There is also a separate paperback workbook with problems and solutions.
I debated what to focus on in this post and finally decided to look at two methods for valuing equity markets. The assumption is that, whatever the short-term effects of momentum, “economic fundamentals will ultimately dictate secular equity market price trends.” (p. 470) (For those who read yesterday’s post, this assumption is in sync with the theory of Frydman and Goldberg.)
First is the neoclassical approach to growth accounting, which uses the Cobb-Douglas production function to “measure the contribution of different factors—usually broadly defined as capital and labor—to economic growth and, indirectly, to compute the rate of an economy’s technological progress.” In imprecise and non-mathematical terms, the percentage growth in real output (or GDP) can be decomposed into its components: growth in total factor productivity (a measure of the level of technology), growth in the capital stock, and growth in the labor output. Applying this model to the Chinese economy, the authors of the chapter suggest that Chinese economic growth will eventually moderate; nonetheless, they project a near-term growth rate of 9.25%. They arrive at this by adding total factor productivity of 2.5%, a growth in capital stock of 12% times a value of 0.5 for the output elasticity of capital—that is, 6%, and a labor force growth of 1.5% times a value of 0.5 for the output elasticity of labor—or 0.75%. An ultimately sustainable growth rate might be 4.25% [1.25% + (0.5 x 6%) + (0.5 X 0%)]. (more…)