Latest Posts

rss

Taleb reveals unsettling truths

  
Analysis, Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

How fragile we are. Five years on from the Lehman Brothers collapse, political and regulatory errors have made the world’s financial system even more fragile.

This alarming line of thought comes from Nassim Nicholas Taleb, best known for The Black Swan, which explained markets’ difficulties in pricing extreme events for which they had no precedent.

 Mr Taleb, who spoke to me in London last week, divides opinion. For some he is a genius, for others a charlatan. What seems clear, however, is that his gloriously charismatic act and polymath choice of imagery, drawn from philosophy, mathematics and the Classics, can get in the way of underlying ideas which are not in fact far-fetched. Indeed they contain a hard kernel of commonsense truth.

Here, then, is an attempt to render Mr Taleb’s poetic arguments in prose.  (more…)

Do the hardest work first

  
  Education
#  #  #  #

The greatest performers in any field delay instant gratification in pursuit of their ultimate goal, which is to be the best they can be while pushing through less than comfortable situations.  For me, the hardest work is determining a loss target.  I firmly believe that the very best traders determine where a loss is to be taken before determining where money can be made.  It is difficult to consider how much you are willing to lose before you consider the instant gratification of adding to your bank account.  But it has to be so.  Accept a loss and delay the gratification of instant money for the reward of a lifetime of income.

Great Lines for Traders

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #
  1. You are not in the game, you are in the bleachers. All you can do is enter and exit.
  2. If the market goes with you, all you can do is try to go with it and jump off quick if turns against you.
  3. If you think in terms of winning and losing, you have already lost.
  4. Your goal should be to make good trades not money. Good trades will make money often enough.
  5. Strive to have a 4 to 1 reward risk ratio.
  6. Trade criteria, trade neutral; your opinion + your ego + your money = Disaster on a stick.
  7. When you make money on a trade, you have not beaten the market, you have blended with it.

Four Possible Basic Outcomes To Any Trade

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

1) Wins initially, and keeps winning.

2) Wins initially, but then reverses to become a loss.

3) Loses initially, and keeps losing.

4) Loses initially, but then reverses to become a win.

If you average down, you only get the chance to add to trade types 2, 3 and 4.

If you average up, you only get the chance to add to trade types 1, 2 and 4.

Averaging down tends to be attractive to people, since it allows the possibility of trade type 4 i.e. a trade that goes against you, but then reverses to recover your losses and more. However, that comes at the material risk of trade type 3 i.e. the trade that never recovers.

Averaging down virtually guarantees that your biggest positions will be in trade type 3 i.e. the trades that never win. Pyramiding up avoids this risk, and also allows you to add to trade type 1 i.e. the trades that start off winning and keep winning.

To be clear, there is a legitimate strategy of picking a range of entry into a trade. Rather than picking a particular price point, you may choose to scale into a position over a range of entries. The distinction here is that you must decide this plan before the first entry is made, rather than in response to a trade going against you.

ICSA :Open Challenge ;Target 194-204

  
Analysis, Education
#  #  #  #  #

ICSA-HOT

Your Stoploss Rs.178-177

janfuture

 

 

Today ,I want this stock to trade above 184.50 with volumes for 5/10 minutes.It’s a challenge.Whole India will run.Forget world Market.

-In first hr itself or Today Intraday will kiss 190-194 level.

-Minor Hurdle at 188 (No value )

-Pls Don’t ask reasons.Just watch Inverse Head & Shoulder formation on chart.

-Fiery Intraday move on card.Yes u can Buy 10-100-1000 lots.

-Before Feb End will see stock kissing Rs.250+ level.

just-read-logo

 No if & But ,Mind blowing chart.

-Expanding Wedge +Inverse Head & Shoulder will favour Bull’s.

Now spare 5 minutes and see my Research work :

Govt. of Singapore increases stake in ICSA (India) to 7%.

The Government of Singapore Investment Corporation Private Limited (GIC) is a
sovereign wealth fund established by the Government of Singapore.

TTM  EPS RS 32  at Rs 183   ICSA trades at    P/E  5.7  only
 
Applying a reasonable P/E discounting of  8, the scrip can appreciate to Rs.250 in the short-to-medium-term

Fii sources > Expected EPS fy 10 =Rs 36

 
SALES =1100CR  MCAP =860CR 

EYES12

Don’t miss to Read ……..Pls Pls Pls !!

The company has Rs 2,200 crore strong order book to be executed within next two years. Of this, the infrastructure services account for Rs 1,400 crore.

ORDER BOOK more than the Market Cap :THIS HAPPENS ONLY IN INDIA

Increased allocation of Government projects under Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Viduytikaran Yojana (RGGVY) to 7000 crores up by 27% will have see significant
orders coming in for ICSA.

Apart from Chart /Fundamentals :Rumours-ICSA

On street are company to come out with Bonus in ratio of 1:1.I don’t care for Rumours…..Read chart and mint money ..Nothing else.

-But ,chart pattern indicates price of 250…so something is cooking and somebody knows……..let’s see what happens !!

Updated at 9:05/21st Jan/Baroda

Go to top