Latest Posts
rssMaximizing Profits
The good traders don’t just come up with promising trade ideas; they have the conviction and fortitude to stick with those ideas. Many times, it’s leaving good trades early–not accumulating bad trades–that leads to mediocre trading results. Because successful traders understand their market edge and have demonstrated it through real trading, they have the confidence to let trades ride to their objectives.
“This is my Hard Earned money. I can’t afford to be out of the market anymore!”-Traders Mindset
“This is my Hard Earned money. I can’t afford to be out of the market anymore!”
“I don’t care about the price, just Get Me In!!”
“It’s a healthy correction”
“See, it’s already coming back, better buy more before the new highs”
“Alright, a retest. Add to the position – buy the dip”
“What a great move! Am I a genius or what?” (more…)
One of the best Trading Psychology books I've ever read!
“Psychology of Intelligence Analysis” by Richards J Heuer, Jr., published by the CIA’s Center for the Study of Intelligence, 1999.
Available as a pdf download from this webpage
Ok, so it’s a CIA book written for Intelligence Analysts, not a trading book written for traders. However, the information available in this book is superb. Well written and easy to follow. This is an excellent source of information on how we think, and the cognitive biases which undermine our ability to process information and conduct market analysis.
VERY APPLICABLE TO TRADING. HIGHLY RECOMMENDED.
Here’s what’s it covers:
Part 1 – Our Mental Machinery
Chapter 1: Thinking About Thinking
Chapter 2: Perception: Why Can’t We See What Is There to Be Seen?
Chapter 3: Memory: How Do We Remember What We Know?
Part 2 – Tools for Thinking
Chapter 4: Strategies for Analytical Judgment: Transcending the Limits of Incomplete Information
Chapter 5: Do You Really Need More Information?
Chapter 6: Keeping an Open Mind
Chapter 7: Structuring Analytical Problems
Chapter 8: Analysis of Competing Hypothesis
Part 3 – Cognitive Biases
Chapter 9 – What Are Cognitive Biases?
Chapter 10 – Biases in Evaluation of Evidence
Chapter 11 – Biases in Perception of Cause and Effect
Chapter 12 – Biases in Estimating Probabilities
Chapter 13 – Hindsight Biases in Evaluation of Intelligence Reporting
Part 4 – Conclusions
Chapter 14 – Improving Intelligence Analysis
Why it would be a mistake to trade like George Soros.
Soros’ prowess in the markets is legendary, so much so that deconstructing his process in order to learn the secret to his success has become a cottage industry in financial circles. In the world of “Market Wizards,” Soros is Saruman. Tolkien baby…look it up.
However, in the Times’ article, his son Robert demystified the source of the Elder Soros’ alchemy in such a simple and definitive way that it may drive market historians to acts of self-immolation.
Apparently It all comes down to a pain. In the back to be specific.
According to his son, Robert, Soros’s trading was always influenced by more than reflexivity. “My father will sit down and give you theories to explain why he does this or that”, he once said, “but I remember seeing it as a kid and thinking, ‘Jesus Christ, at least half of this is bullshit’.
“I mean, you know [that] the reason he changes his position on the market or whatever is because his back starts killing him. It has nothing to do with reason. He literally goes into a spasm and it’s this early warning sign.”
Soros has admitted to relying greatly on “animal instincts”, saying the onset of acute pain was often “a signal that there was something wrong in my portfolio”.
His decisions, then, “are really made using a combination of theory and instinct”.
That’s right. Though you and I did our damnedest to read between the lines and glean some sort of insight from The Alchemy of Finance in the 80′s and again with Soros on Soros in the 90′s, it was all for naught. Now we know the true source of this modern-day Tim The Enchanter’s genius. Monty Python baby…..look it up.
This revelation might tempt some of you to adopt the same market style as Mr. Soros, a view I wholeheartedly endorse, as long as the profile fits. It’s easy to see if a spasm based methodology is right for you by answering a few simple questions.
- Are you a passionate student of the market?
- Are you open to considering a wide range of investment themes?
- Have you ever booked a $1 billion dollar single-day profit by breaking a sovereign bank?
- Did you marry a 41-year junior third wife on your $22 million dollar Westchester estate while Paul Tudor Jones and Julian Robertson looked on?
- Have you booked over $40 billion in cumulative profits?
- Do you have a full head of hair well into your eighth decade on this planet?
7 Warning Signs For Trader
There are warning signs that a trader is going down the road road in a trade or in their trading in general. Traders have to go with the flow of the market, manage risk, and keep their mind open to actual price action. Departing from these principles are dangerous and could result in huge draw downs in capital and even blowing up their accounts. Trading through the filters of fear, greed, or ego are very dangerous.
- You stop trading your plan and start “shooting from the hip” you are losing or winning so you believe that you are above your own rules, you start trading your opinions instead of your plan.
- You are about to take a trade you are 100% sure of, you have no doubt that it will work out. Trades that feel good to do and feel like can’t lose trades rarely win because everyone is already positioned in those trades.
- When you ignore your first stop and start deciding that you should give your trade “more room”, when you allow a loss to grow and rationalize why you should hold it instead of following your plan and stopping out you are in trouble.
- Averaging down in a position that is going against you is never a good idea, fighting trends are very dangerous amplifying your losses by increasing your position size can be fatal to your account.
- Fighting against the prevailing market trend over an over again can chop your account to pieces. (more…)
Financial news networks at the market bottom are like….
Five types of people to surround yourself with
Saw this and worth a read
Perhaps good traders aren’t born but rather made
How much of trading success can be attributed to innate ability? The answer is, as Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt proved with their Turtle Trader experiment back in the early 80′s, none. Trading is a skills based activity in which we make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and risk. We can have uncertainty without risk but it is impossible to have risk without uncertainty.
What is innate that has an impact on our trading are habits. MIT’s McGovern Institute for Brain Research suggests that habit formation is indeed an innate ability which is perfected through experience. In particular, their research focused on the costs and rewards of certain choices using pattern recognition, much like trading.
Neuroscientists led by Institute Professor Ann Graybiel found that untrained monkeys performing a simple visual scanning task gradually developed efficient patterns that allowed them to minimize the time it took to receive their reward.
The findings not only help reveal how the brain forms habits, but also could shed light on neurological disorders where amplified habit-formation results in highly repetitive behavior, such as Tourette’s syndrome, obsessive-compulsive disorder and schizophrenia, says Graybiel.
The process of trading, from scanning the markets for a setup to closing the position, consists of a sequence of tasks. Over time we create habits by combining these tasks together in a process. Our tendency is to use heuristics or mental shortcuts to make the tasks easier on our brains. In doing so we open ourselves up to certain cognitive biases such as framing, anchoring and confirmation bias. If these are formed early in a trading career they can be detrimental to our equity curves and potential as a successful trader.
So perhaps good traders aren’t born but rather made. Traders are made by the habits they form. It takes, on average, 21 days to form a habit while taking much longer to unlearn one. Certain characteristic traits, namely Conscientiousness with two of its facets–self-efficacy and self-discipline, lend themselves nicely to forming good habits. Other characteristic traits, such as Neuroticism, can lead to bad habits. It’s therefore important to know what characteristic traits you bring to the markets.
If you’ve been in the markets for a while and find yourself unsuccessful, the culprit may be the habits and biases you’ve formed early in your trading. As humans our brains have a difficult time in distinguishing between good and bad habits. The good news is that bad habits can be changed into good habits through interrupting the habit cycle and changing the routine. Interrupting the cycle is easier than it sounds and well worth the effort as longevity in the markets as a successful trader is the reward.