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Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (1923 ) :Few Important Points For Traders

In trading, your biggest enemy is within yourself. Success will only come when you have learned to control your emotions. Edwin Lefèvre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (1923) offers advice that applies even today.

    • Caution: Excitement, along with the fear of missing an opportunity, often drives us to enter the market before it is safe to do so. After a down trend a number of rallies may fail before we can carry eventually carry it through. Likewise, the emotional high of a profitable trade may blind us to see the trend reversal.
    • Patience: Before you trade, wait for the right market conditions. At times, it is wise to stay out of the markets and observe it from the sidelines.
    • Conviction: Have the courage to cling to your convictions. Take steps to protect your profits when you see that a trend is weakening, but sit tight and don’t let the fear of losing some of your profits cloud your judgment. There is a good chance the trend will resume its upward climb.
    • Detachment: Concentrate on the technical aspects rather than the money. If your trades are technically correct, the profits will follow. Stay emotionally detached from the market. Avoid getting caught up in short-term excitement. Screen watching is a tell-tale sign: if you keep checking the prices or stare at charts for hours, it’s a clear sign of insecurity about your strategy and you are likely to suffer losses.
    • Focus: Focus on the longer time frames and don’t try to catch every short-term fluctuation. The most profitable trades are in catching the large trends.
    • Expect the unexpected: Investing involves dealing with probabilities, not certainties. No one can predict the market correctly all the time. Avoid the gambler’s logic.
    • Average up, not down: If you increase your position when the price goes against you, you are likely to compound your losses. When the price starts to move, it tends to keep moving in that direction. Increase your exposure when the market proves you right and moves in your favor.
    • Minimize your losses: Use stop-losses to protect your funds. Once the stop-loss is set, don’t hesitate but act immediately. The biggest mistake you can make is to hold on to a losing position and hope for recovery. The markets have a habit of declining way below what you anticipate. Eventually, you are forced to sell, decimating your capital.

Human nature being what it is, most traders and investors ignore these rules when they start out for the first time. It can be an expensive lesson, though.

Control your emotions and avoid being swept along with the crowd. Make consistent decisions based on sound technical analysis.

About That Jesse Livermore Quote

“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine–that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”

The above-mentioned quote is probably one of the more frequently cited in trading and investing circles. Many forget that there is an important nuance to that quote. It is the holding of great stocks in a bull market that will make you money. Try staying with a great stock through the turbulence of a bear market and then tell me how your holding is making you a ton of money. There are several things to consider:

1. You will experience several bear markets in a 40-year investment career and much more >15% declines in the stock market. You need to have a plan how to deal with them. A bear market can lead to a 50% or even 90% drawdown in any stock regardless of how great its fundamentals and its growth prospects are.

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Symptoms of ego-tizing trading

Not putting in stops. The ego doesn’t want to be proven wrong.

  • Hesitating before putting on a trade. The ego wants reassurance before it begins.
  • Overtrading. The ego wants to prove itself big time.
  • Getting stuck in a trade. The ego has intertwined itself with a trade and is holding on for dear life. It cannot cut out. The ego doesn’t want to be wrong.
  • Adding to a losing trade. The ego digs its hole deeper in a massive effort to crawl out.
  • Grabbing a profit too soon. The ego wants a pat on the back.

BETS

There are just four kinds of bets. There are good bets, bad bets, bets that you win, and bets that you lose. Winning a bad bet can be the most dangerous outcome of all, because a success of that kind can encourage you to take more bad bets in the future. You can also lose a good bet, but if you keep placing good bets, over time, the law of averages will be working for you.”

“Life is nothing more than a series of bets and bets are really nothing more than questions and their answers. There is no real difference between, ’should I take another hit on this Blackjack hand?’ and ‘Should I get out of the way of that speeding and wildly careening bus?’ Each shares two universal truths: a set of probabilities of potential outcomes and the singular outcome that takes place. Everyday we place hundreds if not thousands of bets – large and small, some seemingly well considered and others made without a second thought. The vast majority of the latter, life’s little gambles made without any thought, might certainly be trivial. ‘Should I tie my shoes?’ Seems to offer no big risk, nor any big reward. While others, such as the aforementioned ’speeding and wildly careening bus’ would seem to have greater impact on our lives. However, if deciding not to tie your shoes that morning causes you to trip and fall down in the middle of the road when you finally decide to fold your hand and give that careening bus plenty of leeway, well then, in hindsight the trivial has suddenly become paramount.”

Hitler was on 82 different drugs

adolf-hitler_02Maybe that’s why he was such a “sick” bastid?took a primitive form of Viagra when he tried to have sex with Eva Braun, a new book on the Fuhrer’s fragile health has claimed.

Adolf Hitler also

Based on long-dormant medical archives and formerly classified military documents, it claimed the dictator was so afraid of pills that most of his medication was injected.

The authors of the book, titled Was Hitler Ill?, claimed he took 82 different sorts of medication during his rule of Nazi Germany including the primitive “Viagra”, which was a testosterone extract.

The book is largely based on papers from Dr. Theodor Morrell, regarded as a quack among many in the upper echelons of Nazism, who Hitler came to rely on with increasing urgency during the war.

The less-than-flattering nickname “Reich syringe master” was given to him by Luftwaffe chief Hermann Goering, himself a morphine addict by war’s end. (more…)

Four Poisons

poisonThere is a Korean martial art called Kum Do. This is a brutal game that involves a fight to the death with very sharp swords. The way it is practiced today is with bamboo sticks, but the moves are the same. Kum Do teaches the student warriors to avoid what are called “The Four Poisons of the Mind.” These are: fear, confusion, hesitation and surprise. In Kum Do, the student must be constantly on guard to never anticipate the next move of the opponent. Likewise, the student must never allow his natural tendencies for prediction to get the better of him. Having a preconceived bias of what the markets or the opponents will do can lead to momentary confusion and—in the case of Kum Do—to death. A single blow in Kum Do can be lethal, and is the final cut, since the object is to kill the opponent. One blow—>death—>game over.

Instead of predicting, anticipating, and being in fear and confusion, you must do exactly the opposite if you are to survive a death blow from the market movements. You must watch with a calm, clear and collected attitude and strike at the right time. A few seconds of anticipation, hesitation or confusion can mean the difference between life and death in Kum Do—and wins or losses in the stock markets. If you are not in tune with the four poisons of fear, confusion, hesitation or surprise in the markets, you are at risk for ruin. Ruin means that your money is gone and the game is over.

How can you avoid the four poisons of the trading mind: fear, confusion, hesitation and surprise? (more…)

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