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More from Fed’s Bullard. He says there will be no recession.

  
  Analysis

Earlier comments from Bullard are here:

  • Fed’s Bullard says inflation is far too high, the Fed has a good plan in place

More now:

  • don’t think unemployment will rise, could even fall further, as fed hikes rates
  • still expect unemployment fall below 3% this year
  • rate hikes will bring inflation expectations down, lowering inflation without hurting labor market
  • we can bring inflation under control without going into recession
  • it might be reasonable if housing market cools off a bit
  • war in Ukraine will have a meaningful impact on Europe’s economy, but less on North America

Major US indices close modestly lower to start the trading week

  
Analysis, US Market

The major US stock indices are closing with modest losses in an up and down session. The final numbers are showing:

  • Dow industrial average -39.56 points or -0.11% at 34411.68
  • S&P index fell -0.9 points or -0.02% at 4391.70
  • NASDAQ index -18.71 points or -0.14% 13332.37
  • Russell 2000-14.84 points or -0.74% at 1990.13

Looking at the ranges for the day:

  • Dow industrial average was up 0.48% at its highs and was down -0.5% is lows before closing down -0.11%
  • S&P index was up 0.41% at its highs and was down -0.52% it’s lows before closing near unchanged
  •  NASDAQ  index rose 0.47% it’s highs and was down -0.97% it’s lows before closing at -0.14%.
Stocks
The changes and ranges for the major indices

Looking at the major sectors, the biggest gainers were:

  • energy rose 1.6%
  • financials rose 0.7%
  • technology rose 0.3%

On the downside the biggest losing sectors included:

  • healthcare fell -1.1%
  • consumer staples fell -0.8%
  • utilities fell -0.5%

China March 2022 Industrial production beats: +5.0% y/y (expected 4.5%). Retail sales miss

  
Analysis, Economy

March 2022 economic activity data from China.

Industrial Production +5.0% y/y

  • expected 4.5%, prior 7.5%
  • for the YTD +6.5% y/y vs prior +7.5%

Retail sales -3.5% y/y (lockdowns impacting)

  • expected -1.6%, prior 6.7%
  • for the YTD +3.27%, vs. prior +6.72%

Fixed asset investment +9.3% y/y

  • expected 8.5%, prior 12.2%

March Unemployment Rate 5.8%

  • prior 5.5%

This March data has been impacted by lockdowns in various areas during the month, most notably in Shanghai. This is China’s largest city and a central powerhouse of the country’s economy. China’s National Bureau of Statistics acknowledged the difficulties facing the eocnomy in the month:

  • “We must be aware that with the domestic and international environment becoming increasingly complicated and uncertain, the economic development is facing significant difficulties and challenges”
  • “We must coordinate the efforts of Covid-19 prevention and control and economic and social development, make economic stability our top priority and pursue progress while ensuring stability, and put the task of ensuring stable growth in an even more prominent position”

And also held out the carrot of more support:

  • the recovery continues with operations stable
  • China will give economic growth stability a higher priority
china factory

What key events and economic releases are on the schedule next week.

  
  Analysis

Next week is a hodgepodge of economic releases and events. Central bank members from around the globe will be speaking. In the US, existing home sales, Philly Fed manufacturing index, flash PMI data will be released:

Monday, April 18. The Easter Monday holiday will close most of Europe including Switzerland, UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Canada

  • China GDP, 10 PM ET. Estimate 4.2% versus 4.0% Q/Y
  • China retail sales YoY. 10 PM ET. Estimate -3% versus +6.7%
  • RBNZ Gov. Orr speaks at 4 PM ET/0500 GMT. The RBNZ raise rates by 50 basis points at their meeting last week
  • Feds Bullard (hawk and voting member) speaks also at 4 PM ET

Tuesday, April 19:

  • Australia’s monetary policy meeting minutes. 9:30 PM ET
  • US housing starts, 8:30 AM ET. Estimate 1.74 million versus 1.77 million last month
  • SNB’s Chairman Jordan speaks at 12:30 PM ET

Wednesday, April 20

  • Canada CPI. 8:30 AM ET. Estimate 0.9%.
  • US existing home sales. 10 AM ET. Estimate 5.78 million versus 6.02 million last month
  • US beige book. 2 PM ET

Thursday, April 21

  • New Zealand CPI quarter on quarter. 6:45 PM ET. Estimate 2.0% versus 1.4% last quarter
  • EU final CPI YoY. 5 AM ET. Estimate 7.5%. Core CPI 3.0%
  • US Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index. 8:30 AM ET. Estimate 20.6 versus 27.4 last month
  • US unemployment claims. 8:30 AM ET. Estimate 190K versus 185K last week
  • BOE Gov. Bailey speaks at 12:30 PM ET
  • ECB Pres. Lagarde speaks at 1 PM ET
  • Fed’s Powell speaks at 1 PM ET

Friday, April 22

  • Australia flash manufacturing and services PMI. 7 PM ET
  • Japan flash manufacturing PMI. 8:30 PM ET
  • UK retail sales. 2 AM ET. Estimate -0.3% versus -0.3% last month
  • Germany flash manufacturing PMI. 3:30 AM ET. Estimate 54.6 versus 56.9 last month
  • EU flash manufacturing PMI. 4 AM ET. Estimate 54.9 versus 56.5. Services PMI 55.0 versus 55.6 last month
  • UK flash manufacturing PMI. 4:30 AM ET. Estimate 54.3 versus 55.2
  • Canada retail sales 8:30 AM ET. Estimate -0.5% versus 3.2% last month. Core retail sales 0.2% versus 2.5% last month
  • US flash manufacturing PMI. 9:45 AM ET estimate 58.1 versus 58.8 last month. Services PMI flash estimate 58.0 versus 58.0 last month
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