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What Happens in Your Brain When Your Market View Is Completely Wrong

  
  Education
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Eric Barker has a new article (link here) on how to win every argument. The article had a point which made me think whether the same situation happens in trading.

So it quoted an experiment by psychologist Drew Westen, which showed to supporters, footage of their favorite candidates completely contradicting himself. The experiment found that as soon as the people realized that the information contradicted their world view, the parts of the brain that handle reason and logic went dormant, while the parts of the brain that handle hostile attacks – the fight-or-flight response – lit up. Essentially logic gets thrown out the window, and it just becomes a fight where you do anything to win.

A similar situation occurs in trading, when you have a certain expectation of how the market should behave. E.g. you might for various reasons, think that the market will go up. So when the market does not follow what you expect, you might initially make up excuses for it. However when the market continues to go completely in the opposite direction of what you expect, your logic and reasoning centers would shut down, your fight-or-flight response kicks in, you treat it like a hostile attack on you, and you would do anything to win (or not lose), e.g. keep averaging down. I’m sure this sequence of events led to many traders blowing up their accounts. It is pretty interesting that the experiment showed this as a ‘natural expected’ behavior.

As always, trade what you see, not what you think.

Greece bailout package 'agreed by Germany and France'

  
Economy, Education
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The deal will also involve the International Monetary Fund and is expected to include 22 billion euros of funding for Greece, sources said.

It is now up to European Union President Herman Van Rompuy to call a summit of eurozone leaders possibly later tonight to consider the French-German deal, after talks attended by all 27 European Union heads of state.

The meeting would ask Van Rompuy to draw up detailed plans “before year end to show all the options possible” for bailing out eurozone nations in future. That would include preventive measures and sanctions, a diplomat said.

Spanish government spokeswoman Cristina Gallach said she could not confirm any deal but that Spain – which heads most European Union talks because it holds the EU’s rotating presidency – was “hopeful” that a solution could be found at the talks for Greece’s debt woes.

23-Lefsetz’s Business Rules

  
  Education
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1. You’ve got to get along. If you don’t have good people skills, you’ll never succeed, even if you run your own business.

2. Money talks. He who has cash has leverage, and someone always has more than you do. There’s rarely a deal between equals.

3. Leverage is not always about money. I.e. if you’re an unsigned band that can sell out arenas, you’ll get an incredible deal from the label.

4. If a deal is too good, it probably is. In other words, if the other person can’t make any money, there’s going to be a problem.

5. The best deals are win-wins.

6. If you’re not willing to risk, if you’re not willing to give something up, you’re going to sit on the sidelines. Sure, the label might not offer you your dream deal, but the alternative is to go it alone, which is an option, but probably not the one you want since you entered negotiations in the first place.

7. You don’t know everything, you just think you do. If you’re not learning every day, you’re hanging with the wrong people and not applying yourself.

8. The more powerful the person, the less the chance you’ll see them at the conference. The conference is for never have and wannabes and for the purveyor to make coin. In other words, have a good time at SXSW, but the real winners are the people who put on the conference.

9. A contract does not guarantee behavior. At most it’s a guideline. If you think suing to get what you want is a solution, that the contract entitles you to win, you’re naive. (more…)

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