The VIX is very close to the 2008 peak.
Archives of “US Market” category
rssCircuit breaker levels to watch in the S&P 500 later today
How low can you go?
US futures hit limit down very early in the trading day and with European equities pointing to a 8-9% drop across the board, it looks like US stocks will be headed for an extremely rough open later in the cash market (S&P ETF down by nearly 10% now).
Here are the key circuit breaker levels to watch today:
- Level 1: 2,521.25 or down 7% from Friday close
- Level 2: 2,358.59 or down 13% from Friday close
- Level 3: 2,168.82 or down 20% from Friday close
If anything else, also keep an eye out on the key trendline support that stretches back all the way to 2009, currently near the 2,500 level. Clearly, this did not age very well:
US stocks close at the highs and nearly erase the declines from yesterday
S&P index is the biggest gain since October 2008
The US stocks were encouraged by the actions proposed by Pres. Trump. That, and short covering, into the weekend led to a huge run higher. The gains nearly erased the declines from yesterday.
The final numbers are showing:
- S&P is up 230.38 points or 9.29% at 2711.02. Yesterday the index fell -9.51%
- Nasdaq is up 673.07 or 9.35% at 7874.87. Yesterday the index fell -9.43%
- Dow is up 1985.00 points or 9.36% at 23185.67. Yesterday, the index fell -9.99%
For the week, the major indices recovered a lot of the gains, but still ended with sharp declines
- S&P index fell -8.79%
- NASDAQ index fell -8.17%
- Dow fell -10.36%
- YTD for the major indices are showing:
- S&P index -16.09%
- NASDAQ index -12.23%
- Dow industrial average – -18.76%
Thought For A Day
Goldman Sachs expect the Federal Reserve to cut 100bp on March 18
Federal Open Market Committee meet March 18
I though the Fed may have cut again before then, although arguments were it’d just create more panic. Which has happened anyway. March 18 is Wednesday next week so there’s still time!
Anyway, back to GS, here’s the in a nutshell version:
- We now expect the FOMC to cut the funds rate 100bp on March 18
- a faster return to the crisis-era 0-0.25% rate than under our previous call for two 50bp steps in March and April
More:
- To alleviate stresses in funding markets that have emerged as the coronavirus outbreak has spread, the NY Fed announced today that it will take two steps to boost liquidity and reserves in the banking system over the next month. First, the ongoing $60bn of monthly reserve management purchases in bills will now be spread across a range of Treasury maturities through mid-April. These secondary market purchases will help to clear some of the off-the-run Treasuries on dealer balance sheets. Second. the NY Fed announced a slate of weekly term lm and 3m repo operations over the remainder of the monthly schedule with a minimum size of $500bn each (full schedule here). The substantial increase in operation limits is in keeping with the NY Fed’s commitment to provide cash to banks as needed during Treasury market disruptions.
- In light of the continued growth in coronavirus cases in the US and globally, the sharp further tightening in financial conditions, and rising risks to the economic outlook, we now expect the FOMC to cut the funds rate 100bp on March 18, a faster return to the crisis-era 0-0.25% rate than under our previous call for two 50bp steps in March and April.
US stocks go out at the lows. The Dow tumbles 10%
NASDAQ and S&P index fall over 9.4%
The US stocks are going out at the lows and down sharply after the markets were not impressed with the President’s address to the nation and the headlines continue to point to slower growth. The US sporting events are shutting down. The number of infected and deaths continued to grow in Europe. A massive liquidity add by the Fed could not help.
The final numbers are showing:
- S&P index -260.6 points or -9.51% at 2480.78
- NASDAQ index -750.25 points or -9.43% at 7201.80
- Dow industrial average -2352.33 points or -9.99% at 21200.85.
Year to date numbers are showing:
- Dow, -25.71%
- S&P, -23.22%
- Nasdaq, -19.74%
- Canada S&P/TSX index -26.69%
- Euro Stoxx 50, -32.04%
- UK FTSE 100 -30.56%
- German DAX, -30.85%
- France’s CAC, -32.35%
- Japan’s new guy, -21.55%
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng -13.77%
- Australia’s S&P/ASX 200, -20 64%
There is nothing good coming out the stock market.
Year to
US major indices hit bear market levels today
Intraday lows reach -20%
The US major indices all hit bear market levels today (-20% from the all time highs).
- The S&P index -20% level comes in at 2714.81. The low reached 2707.22
- The Nasdaq index -20% level comes in at 7870.69. The low reached 7850.945
- The Dow -20% level comes in at 23654.85. The low reached 23328.32.
The closing levels for the day are showing:
- S&P index -140.85 points or -4.89% at 2741.38. The low reached 2707.22. The high extended to 2825.60
- Nasdaq index fell minus 392.20 points or -4.7% at 7952.05. The low for the day reach 7850.945. The high extended to 8181.35
- Dow fell -1464.94 points or -5.86% at 23553.22. The low for the day reached 23328.32. The high for the day extended to 24604.63
In addition to each of the major indices falling over 20% from the high, the Dow industrial average fell below its 200 week moving average at 23619.19. The price also close below that 200 day moving average. If the week closes below the 200 week moving average, it would be the 1st time since October 1, 2010.
The NASDAQ index is also dipped below its 100 week moving average at 7906.97. The price closed above that moving average level.
The next major target for the S&P is at its 200 week moving average at 2640.22. The low price today at 2707.22 is still 67 points away.
US stocks post largest one-day gain since December 2018
Big gains in the US and Canada
Daily change:
- S&P 500 +135 points to 2882, +4.94%
- Nasdaq +4.95%
- DJIA +4.4%
- Toronto TSX +3.1% — biggest gain since 2011
That a 3.1% gain in Canada is the biggest since 2011 is sad on so many levels. That index is below the 2008 highs.
S&P 500 dividend yield exceeds 30y Treasury yield by the most in history.
Late rally takes some of the sting away from the sharp declines today
Rate cut hopes into the weekend helps erase some of the declines on the day.
A late rally has taken some of the sting away from the sharp decline today in US stocks. The Dow industrial average was down close to 894 points an hour before the close. The index is still down around -250 points but well off those low levels.
The final numbers are showing:
- The S&P index -51.46 points or -1.7% at 2972.46. The index was down over -4% at its lows. So the late day rally erased a lot of those declines.
- The NASDAQ index is closing down -1.87% or 162.97 points at 8576.61. The low for the day reached 8375.13. The high reached 8612.359. At the low, the index was down -4.16%
- The Dow industrial average is closing down -255.69 points or -0.98% at 25865.59. The low price reached 25226.62. The high price extended to 25994.38. At the session low the Dow was down -894 points or -3.43%.
