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UK election: Exit poll forecasts a big Conservative majority

  
Analysis, Politics
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The exit poll points to a strong majority win for the Tories

The poll forecasts the Conservatives to win an outright majority of 368 seats. The pound has jumped on the headline here with cable surging well above 1.3370.

The breakdown:

The exit poll points to a strong majority win for the Tories

North Korea: It is clear that US has nothing to offer us even if talks resumed

  
Analysis, Politics

North Korea delivers a harsh message to the US

North Korea US
  • US has done a stupid thing by convening UN Security Council
  • UN Security Council is nothing more than a political tool of the US’ interests
  • We are ready to respond to any corresponding measure that the US chooses
It looks pretty clear by now that we’re going to start seeing tensions between both sides escalate again and this will be a wild card for markets going into next year.

China’s Global Times: Trump can’t force China to yield on trade like Mexico

  
Analysis, Politics
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An opinion piece in the forthright GT. Leads off with:

  • China is not Mexico. 
  • It’s impossible that the US can strike a trade deal with China by forcing Beijing to make big compromises, as the US did to Mexico when it came to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
And gets more obstreperous from there 😀
C’mon Dec 15 – more tariffs or not? Only Trump knows right now.
An opinion piece in the forthright GT. Leads off with:

UK election – Here is why GBP traders are freaking out about a possible hung parliament

  
Analysis, Politics
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The latest YouGov poll shows the projected majority for the Conserviative party shrinking

And also does not rule out a hung parliament (a hung parliament is within the margin of error).
Here is how the YouGov polling has evolved, run your trend spotting indicators over these ….
The latest YouGov poll shows the projected majority for the Conserviative party shrinking

China’s Global Times warns of downtrend in US-China trade – difficult to reverse

  
Analysis, Politics
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The Global Times is forthright with its views, a good window into China sentiment

Latest piece:
  • It has been 18 months since the US began imposing 25 percent tariffs on the first tranche of Chinese goods, and bilateral trade between the world’s two largest economies is still sliding. 
  • Even with a “phase one” trade deal, the downtrend in bilateral trade will be difficult to reverse. 
  • Meanwhile, China’s total trade actually expanded 2.4 percent year-on-year in the first 11 months, indicating that trade with the US is not irreplaceable for China. 
Bolding mine.
More here, but the gist of it:

The UN Security Council will meet this week to discuss North Korea

  
Analysis, Politics
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Reuters (citing diplomats and a request from the United States) report the council will meet on Wednesday

  • it will discuss North Korea’s recent missile launches
Over the weekend NK conducted an unspecified “very important test” at its Dongchang-ri satellite launch site
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I wonder if we’ll see a yen response? NK issues have, in the past, prompted yen buying (a flight to liquidity response, the USD also a beneficiary) but this has diminished.
North Korea kim yen

North Korea warns that Kim’s thoughts on Trump can change

  
Analysis, Politics
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North Korea warns Trump on year-end deadline

North Korea US

In case you missed the news from earlier today, North Korea has set a year-end deadline for the US to change its policies or Kim Jong Un may “embark on a new path” as denuclearisation talks between the two countries appear to have broken down.

If you’ve been following our headlines over the past few months, it is clear that the two countries aren’t getting along well with how frequent North Korea has been conducting missile launches and tests during the period.
As things stand, they want the US to lift more sanctions before committing to any more “denuclearisation” projects but the US wants it to be the other way around. Hence, we have reached a bit of an impasse at the moment.
If anything else, keep an eye on this issue here as it could present a wild card risk for markets in 2020 – alongside the host of other issues.

South Korea’s vice fin min says watching markets for impact of North Korea issues

  
Analysis, Politics
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Sounding a warning for volatility related to NK missile tests and other geopolitical issues

This comes after North Korea’s state media KCNA reported on Sunday that the country had conducted a “very important” test at its Sohae rocket-testing ground. NK have previously agreed to close the facility. But, no, they have not.
US President Trump had words on the NK tests over the weekend:
  • “Kim Jong Un is too smart and has far too much to lose, everything actually, if he acts in a hostile way. He signed a strong Denuclearization Agreement with me in Singapore,” 
  • “He does not want to void his special relationship with the President of the United States or interfere with the U.S. Presidential Election in November” 
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