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Japan trade balance for October Y 17.3bn (expected Y 229.3bn)

  
Analysis, Economy
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Japan trade balance for October Y 17.3bn

  • expected Y 229.3bn, prior Y -124.8bn

trade balance adjusted Y -34.7bn

  • expected Y 248.1bn, prior Y -97.2bn

exports -9.2% y/y –  worse than expected and the biggest y/y fall in 3 years.

  • expected -7.5%, prior 5.2%

imports -14.8% y/y – not as bad as expected but not good, ditto on the biggest y/y fall in 3 years.

  • expected -15.2%, prior -1.5%
More on export performance. Exports to:
  • the US down 11.4% y/y
  • to China down 10.3% y/y
  • to the EU down 8.4% y/y
  • to Asia down 11.2% y/y

Bundesbank: No reason to fear that Germany would slide into recession

  
Analysis, Economy
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Comments by the Bundesbank in its latest monthly report

Germany
  • Domestic economy will probably continue to provide momentum
  • Manufacturing downturn could be leveling off
  • The slowdown is not likely to intensify markedly
  • The slowdown will probably continue in Q4 2019
  • The overall economic output could more or less stagnate
I think the thing that stands out the most for me here is the way that they are communicating the message rather than the message itself.
Take note of the words used: probably, likely, could. Now, that’s not exactly what I would call exuding confidence, not even the slightest. It sort of contradicts their main statement of having “no reason” to fear a recession.

Wilbur Ross: US-China trade deal will be done ‘in all likelihood’

  
Analysis, Economy
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Comments by US commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross

  • There is a very high probability that a deal will be reached
  • Chinese agricultural purchases and execution of those are an issue
  • Huawei not an appropriate player in the US 5G space
  • US will have deal with China or keep tariffs
Rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat. Yet, markets continue to lap it all up. USD/JPY touches a new day high of 108.78 and looks to challenge the 100-hour moving average now.
Looks like risk trades just got a shot in the arm ahead of US trading.

China October: Industrial Production 4.7% y/y (vs. expected 5.4%) & Retail sales 7.2% y/y (vs. 7.8% expected)

  
Analysis, Economy

Chinese activity data for the month of October 2019

Industrial Production 4.7% y/y for a substantial miss
  • expected 5.4%, prior was 5.8%
Industrial production YTD 5.6% y/y
  • expected 5.6%, prior was 5.8%
Fixed Assets (excluding rural) YTD 5.2 % y/y
  • expected 5.4%, prior was 5.4%
Retail Sales 7.2% y/y and also a miss
  • expected 7.8%, prior was 7.8%
Retail Sales YTD 8.1% y/y
  • expected 8.1%, prior was 8.2%
more to come

Eurozone September industrial production +0.1% vs -0.2% m/m expected

  
Analysis, Economy

Latest data released by Eurostat – 13 November 2019

  • Prior +0.4%
  • Industrial production WDA -1.7% vs -2.3% y/y expected
  • Prior -2.8%
Factory output nudges up against expectations and that is very much a relief for the manufacturing sector in the euro area. That said, the data here pertains to Q3 data and is largely factored into the report here.
Let’s see if this can keep up in Q4 but for now, at least there’s still some hope.

China’s Global Times on trade talks with the US – says there “isn’t a quick fix for this prolonged conflict”

  
Analysis, Economy, Politics
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A piece in the Global times, an interview with Hans-Paul Bürkner, chairman of Boston Consulting Group (BCG)

The headline to this post is an editorial opinion from the GT editor, but it fits with the theme of the interview.
  • The situation between China and the US involves more conflict than the world has seen before, but eventually we’ll resolve it because this is the best way for both. 
  • There will be a trade deal. There will be one deal after another, and one issue after another will be resolved but it can take a lot of time.
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