Since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, the dollar has lost 96% of its purchasing power.
Archives of “Economy” category
rssIf you liked Lebanon’s eurobonds at 6%, you’ll love them at 1,300%?
G20 financial leaders to say global economic growth is to pick up modestly in 2020, 2021
According to Reuters, citing a draft communique on the matter
- There are signs of easing tensions
- Downside risks to growth include coronavirus outbreak
- To enhance global monitoring, stand ready to take further action
- Monetary policy should continue to support economic activity, ensure price stability
Just take note that the summit will take place this weekend as we will see global leaders and central bank representatives come together to meet – for whatever reason.
The draft communique also says that financial leaders are to reaffirm their exchange rate commitments and conclusions on trade as per the Osaka summit last year.
Japan core machinery orders for December -12.5% m/m (expected -8.9%)
A capex indicator for Japan in the months ahead, 6 to 9 months out.
-12.5% m/m
- expected -8.9%, prior 18.0% m/m
-3.5% y/y
- expected -0.7%, prior 5.3% y/y
The m/m is very volatile, the y/y is a little smoother. Both are misses though.
As part of the process the Cabinet Office survey manufacturers:
- the firms expect core orders will fall 5.2% in Q1 of this year (from -2.1% in Q4 2019)
Singapore plans to set aside S$800 million to fight coronavirus outbreak
Singapore announces in its 2020 budget delivery
The bulk of the amount will be for the health ministry to stymie the spread of the coronavirus as well as to mitigate its impact. In the budget, the finance ministry says that they are planning two special packages totaling S$5.6 billion to bolster the economy.
SNB total sight deposits w.e. 14 February CHF 590.1 bn vs CHF 589.6 bn prior
Latest data released by SNB – 17 February 2020
- Domestic sight deposits CHF 504.2 bn vs CHF 503.0 bn prior
Prior week’s release can be found here. A rather minimal increase in overall sight deposits and that continues to suggest limited intervention by the SNB over the past few weeks.
If anything, this reaffirms that they can only slow down the appreciation in the franc and not counteract it altogether by the look of things – or fear incurring the wrath of the US.
Singapore Q4 GDP 1 % y/y (vs expected 0.8 %) – lowers outlook for GDP ahead
Singapore MTI downgrades 2020 GDP growth forecast to -0.5% to 1.5% (previous forecast 0.5% to 2.5%)
- Singapore MTI says 2020 GDP expected to come in at around 0.5%, the mid-point of the forecast range
- Singapore says revising down 2020 growth, exports forecasts due to coronavirus outbreak
More:
- Q4 manufacturing -5.9% % q/q at annualised, seasonally adjusted rate
- Q4 services 2.2 % q/q at annualised, seasonally adjusted rate
- 2019 non-oil domestic exports contract 9.2%
- Singapore lowers 2020 non-oil domestic exports forecast to -0.5%-1.5% from 0%-2% previously
Japan GDP, preliminary for Q4 2019: -1.6% q/q (vs -1.0% expected
Low expectations and even a miss on those.
more to come
GDP sa -1.6% q/q
- expected -1.0%, prior 0.4%
GDP annualised sa -6.3% q/q … so ugly, biggest fall since 2014
- expected -3.8%, prior 1.8%
GDP nominal q-1.2% q/q
- expected -0.6%, prior 0.6%
GDP deflator (an inflation indication) 1.3%
- expected 1.1%, prior 0.6% … some encouragement for the BOJ?
Private consumption -2.9% q/q
- expected -2.0% q/q, prior 0.5%
Business spending -3.7% q/q
- expected -1.6%, prior 1.8%
Just awful GDP numbers. Sales tax and typhoon impact cited.
- imports fell, first time in 3 quarters
- exports fell for 2nd consecutive quarter
Just wait for Q1 and the coronavirus impact.
Federal Reserve FOMC January meeting minutes this week – preview
The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be published on Wednesday 19 February 2020 at 1900GMT
A couple of snippets on what to expect and look out for, via Scotia.
- Watch for frequency of citation references to how the committee views downside risks to the outlook
- Recent references to downside risks have fanned market pricing for easing
- (chart 2). During the press conference on January 29th, Powell guided that there had been a Further clues regarding expectations for the mid-year announcement of the strategic review are possible
- watch for further discussion of the merits of average inflation targeting around a 2% goal
- balance sheet policy guidance … we might develop a further understanding of the range of FOMC opinions
- coronavirus and its potential impact. Watch for any further discussion and the range of views on the implications for world and domestic growth and inflation.
Japan – Reuters Tankan for Feb shows slight improvement
Reuters monthly poll tracks the Bank of Japan’s key tankan quarterly survey
- Japan manufacturers index -5 in February vs -6 in January
- non-manufacturers index +15 vs January +14
- Japan manufacturers May index seen at -5, non-manufacturers +15
One of the comments from the poll of firms:
- “Just as the domestic economy’s slump following the sales tax hike is becoming evident, the coronavirus spread has made China-bound exports totally unclear”
—
Reuters poll of 502 large- and mid-sized companies, in which 245 firms replied
- indexes are calculated by subtracting the percentage of pessimistic respondents from optimistic ones