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Abu Dhabi Lecture: Short Summary

  
Economy, Education
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He began by explaining why extreme deflation scenarios are extremely unlikely under the Bernanke Fed, comparing the Fed chairman’s commitment to an anti-deflation strategy to Hitler’s Mein Kampf, a book that also clearly stated a policy program in advance but was not widely believed until it was too late.

Likewise Dr Faber believes Mr. Bernanke is committed to printing money and will in any case have very little choice because of entitlements and the US constitution. Thus he could see the S&P 500 dropping back from current levels to say 950 in this autumn but by then Fed monetary policy would be strongly inflationary and bring the market back up.

Dr Faber pointed out that with the US so deep in debt the Fed thinks it cannot allow asset prices to drop below a certain point because that would devastate the balance sheets of the banks with debt deflation. But he thinks in the long run this is just rolling up another crisis for the future that will destroy the US dollar and cause an even bigger financial crisis.

Declaring himself the ‘most pessimistic of forecasters, nobody is more pessimistic than me’ Dr Faber outlined a scenario in which the dollar has to be replaced by another unit after a future inflation, and holders of cash and bonds lose virtually everything in the process.

Top ten reasons you know China has a financial bubble on its hands

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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Edward Chancellor, author of the seminal book on financial speculation and manias “Devil Take The Hindmost,” is now turning his eyes to China.  He sees a number of red flags which point to excess in China.

Chancellor writes:

In the aftermath of the credit crunch, the outlook for most developed economies appears pretty bleak. Households need to deleverage. Western governments will have to tighten their purse strings. Faced with such grim prospects at home, many investors are turning their attention toward China. It’s easy to see why they are excited. China combines size – 1.3 billion inhabitants – with tremendous growth prospects. Current income per capita is roughly one-tenth of U.S. levels. The People’s Republic also has a great track record. Over the past thirty years, China’s Gross Domestic Product has increased sixteen-fold.

So what’s the catch? The trouble is that China today exhibits many of the characteristics of great speculative manias. The aim of this paper is to describe the common features of some of the great historical bubbles and outline China’s current vulnerability.

Everyone knows there is extreme levels of excess. The latest report from Andy Xie on local governments shows that governments are now depending on asset prices for revenue, much as they did in places like California during America’s housing bubble.

How can we identify a speculative mania? Chancellor says:

bubbles can be identified ex ante, as the economists like to say. There also exists an interesting, if rather neglected, body of research on leading indicators of financial distress. A few years ago, many of these indicators were pointing to rising economic vulnerability in the United States and other parts of the globe. Today, those red flags are flying around Wall Street’s current darling, The People’s Republic of China.

James Rickards thinks this is the greatest bubble in history. Even Sino-enthusiast Stephen Roach is pointing to a bubble in China. He just thinks the government will be able to prevent its dragging down the real economy.

That’s because Beijing was vigilant in preventing asset and credit bubbles from spilling over into the real side of the Chinese economy. This was very different from the Japan endgame of the late 1980s, where the confluence of equity and property bubbles led to a massive overhang of excess capacity.

Roach’s confidence sounds an awful lot like blind faith in the Chinese authorities to me – exactly the opposite of what Roach’s former colleague Andy Xie is saying.

Chancellor includes this blind faith in the 10 signposts of manias and financial crises (very reminiscent of Kindelberger, by the way).

  1. “Great investment debacles generally start out with a compelling growth story.”

     

    100% yes. Check.

  2. “Blind faith in the competence of the authorities.”

     

    See Roach’s comments above or read Goldilocks is not sleeping in America anymore; she’s now in China. Check.

  3. “A general increase in investment is another leading indicator of financial distress. Capital is generally misspent during periods of euphoria. Only during the bust does the extent of the misallocation become clear.” (more…)

Japan Mar Retail Sales +4.7% Y/Y, Biggest Rise In 13 Years

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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– Japan Retail Sales Post 3rd Straight Y/Y Rise; Feb +4.2%
– Japan Mar Retail Auto Sales +19.6% Y/Y Vs Feb Revised +14.8%
– Japan Mar Retail Sales Also Pushed Up By Higher Fuel Prices

TOKYO (MNI) – Japanese retail sales surged 4.7% in March from a year earlier, posting the largest year-on-year gain in 13 years, data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry released on Wednesday showed.

It was the third straight year-on-year increase after an unrevised rise of 4.2% in February. (more…)

The Hindenburg Omen Has Arrived

  
Analysis, Economy, Education, US Market
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Easily the most feared technical pattern in all of chartism (for the bullishly inclined) is the dreaded Hindenburg Omen. Those who know what it is, tend to have an atavistic reaction to its mere mention. Those who do not, can catch up on its implications courtesy of Wikipedia, but in a nutshell: “The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis that attempts to predict a forthcoming stock market crash. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster of May 6th 1937, during which the German zeppelin was destroyed in a sudden conflagration.” Granted, the Hindenburg Omen is not a guarantee of a crash, and the five criteria that must be met for a Hindenburg trigger typically need to reoccur within 36 days for reconfirmation. Yet the statistics are startling: “Looking back at historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77%, and usually takes place within the next forty-days.” The last Hindenburg Omen occurred during the lows of 2009. Today, we just had another (unconfirmed) Hindenburg Omen. It is time to batten down the hatches – something big is coming.

As a reminder, the 5 criteria of the Omen are as follows:

  1. That the daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.
  2. That the smaller of these numbers is greater than or equal to 69 (68.772 is 2.2% of 3126). This is not a rule but more like a checksum. This condition is a function of the 2.2% of the total issues.
  3. That the NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.
  4. That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.
  5. That new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory.

Today, all five conditions were satisfied. June 2008 was another such reconfirmed event, and as Barron’s pointed out then, “there’s a 25% probability of a full-blown stock-market crash in the next 120 days. Caveat emptor.” Boy was the emptor caveating within 120 days (especially if said emptor was named Dick Fuld). Which brings us to the present: should the Omen be reconfirmed within 36 days, all bets are off.

ALERT :RBI Tax to dry FII Tap ?

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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taxForeign investors funneled more than $15 billion to Indian equities in 2009, sending stocks up more than 75% and strengthening the rupee . With expected positive growth rates for the year and higher interest rates differentials that favor emerging markets, investors are looking to India as a good place to stash their wealth.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has already taken the necessary precautions to stave off a potential asset bubble forming in India’s stock and real estate markets. India’s officials are welcoming the fund inflows with open arms, but Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee says monetary tools will be implemented if inflows become disruptive to the economy.

RBI could stem inflows by:

We are expecting very soon by Next month or First week Jan’10

  • Imposing taxes on inflows; this is considered to be the most likely tactic the government would take, especially when it comes to inflows that could lead to a housing bubble
  • Auctioning quotas for foreign credit to increase the cost of raising funds
  • Using market intervention bonds and raising cash reserve ratios

Fed holds rates, maintains ‘extended period’ language

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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Here’s the FOMC statement in full:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is stabilizing. Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly. However, investment in nonresidential structures is declining, housing starts have been flat at a depressed level, and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth. Although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability. (more…)

The Fed Flashes the Nuclear QE

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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Of ten people who hear the same story or speech, each one might understand it differently. Perhaps, only one of them will understand it correctly. Bernanke acknowledged that the US-economy faces an “unusually uncertain time,” but if necessary, he hinted the central bank would resort to “Quantitative Easing,” (QE), or printing vast quantities of US-dollars, in order to prevent a deflationary spiral.

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